The Detroit Red Wings begin their fifth season under Steve Yzerman on Thursday night in New Jersey, and if the team’s general manager isn’t careful, he might find himself on the hot seat.
No, not this season. But if the team doesn’t show significant improvement, next season could be a different story.
I agree with national analysts who widely expect the Wings to miss the playoffs for a franchise-record eighth straight year.
That would be shameful for such a proud franchise and fan base. But it would also mark a half-decade of irrelevance delivered the guy who was brought back to Detroit to restore that pride and build the Wings into a winner the way he built the Tampa Bay Lightning — in Florida! — into a powerhouse.
Let’s be honest. If someone told you when Yzerman returned to Detroit in April 2019 that four years later the team still wouldn’t be expected to make the playoffs, you wouldn’t believe it.
After all, in Yzerman’s first year as the Bolts’ GM, they finished with 103 points and made the Eastern Conference finals. In his fifth season, Tampa got to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Circumstances are always different among franchises, but the Wings’ rebuild mode after four years, when compared to the Bolts’ rapid raise to the conference finals, is unacceptable. Sure, the Wings have gotten somewhat better, but the improvement has come at the exciting, breakneck speed of a savings bond reaching maturity.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though, as the Wings aren’t without hope. Yzerman made his biggest splash yet when he dealt for former 40-goal scorer Alex DeBrincat, a feisty player with one of the league’s sweetest one-timers on the power play. That was part of a summer in which he added solid veterans such as forwards J.T. Compher and Daniel Sprong and defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Jeff Petry.
Those players should complement the established core of forwards Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, David Perron and Robby Fabbri and defensemen Moritz Seider and Jake Walman.
But Seider and Raymond — Yzerman’s first two first-round picks — both had sophomore slumps last season; goaltender Ville Husso likewise struggled under a heavy workload. Yzerman also hasn’t gotten much yet out of his more recent draft picks, including 2021 first-rounders Simon Edvinsson and Sebastian Cossa. And promising forward Jonatan Berggren, who had 15 goals as a rookie last season, will start the season in the minors.
When you add it all up, this doesn’t look like a team to be feared. There are no elite, star-level players. No one is expected to contend for league awards.
Statistically, the Wings improved moderately in their first year under coach Derek Lalonde, thanks to his emphasis on playing hard and fast while being responsible with the puck. They flashed their potential in February, when a 7-1-0 run made them one of the NHL’s hottest teams and got them close enough to eye a playoff spot. Losing 10 of their next 12 games put an end to that dream.
They also made significant statistical improvements last year, especially on special teams, where they jumped from 26th to 17th on the power play (out of 32 teams) and from last to 18th on the penalty kill. Their scoring stayed about the same —toward the bottom of the table. Their goals allowed improved dramatically … but still ranked only 22nd.
It’s still too big of a hill to climb this season for the Wings to be considered a playoff-level team. Most playoffs teams are great at something that intimidates opponents, like goaltending or scoring or the power play or a smothering forecheck. But what about the Wings strikes fear in you? Other than parking prices around Little Caesars Arena?
That’s why expectations are being tempered inside the Wings’ dressing room. Larkin did his best to remain hopeful for a good season with the addition of veterans. He told reporters Tuesday that the goal is to start strong the first two months before the team gets a small break — two games over a 10-day span — in November as part of its trip to Sweden for the NHL’s Global Series.
Maybe the most encouraging sign of all the new things that happened this offseason was the change in Yzerman’s perspective. He has finally acknowledged that the playoffs aren’t just some faraway theoretical goal. He knows the team wasn’t too far away from closing in on a playoff spot at last season’s trade deadline and he understands patience is wearing thin.
“Is it playoffs or bust?” he said last month at the start of training camp. “You say ‘playoffs or bust,’ I guess you’re prepared to trade all your draft picks and whatever you have to do at some point.
“So no, it’s not ‘playoffs or bust.’ But it’s, to me, it’s not at the expense of the future.”
OK, so let’s talk about the future. When, exactly, does it get here, Stevie? Because, honestly, we’ve all been patiently waiting for it arrive for far too long.
This is what worries me about Yzerman’s careful and cautious approach: It often feels way too careful and cautious. After four years, I’d say Yzerman has underachieved, especially when you consider how high expectations were for him when he took the job.
All that could change this season if the Wings defy expectations and make the playoffs. Maybe Yzerman even becomes a buyer at the trade deadline. Or, at the very least, if the Wings miss the playoffs but finish closer to 90 points than 80 points.
So, no, Yzerman’s seat isn’t hot right now. But if things don’t go well this season, Yzerman’s notion about the future might start to change once he feels some warmth in his hindquarters.
Contact Carlos Monarrez: cmonarrez@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Red Wings’ (and Steve Yzerman’s) goal this season: Improvement
