With a new season just around the corner, the Pittsburgh Penguins are gearing up for yet another training camp.
But this time around – unlike in seasons past – 2024-25 could be full of surprises.
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As such, we will break down some storylines to expect this season and provide you with some bold – and some not-so-bold – predictions for the 2024-25 campaign.
First up: Who will crack the Penguins’ 23-man roster for the Oct. 8 opening night showdown against the division rival New York Rangers?
Kelsey’s Prediction
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Forwards:
Drew O’Connor – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rickard Rakell
Rutger McGroarty – Kevin Hayes – Cody Glass
Blake Lizotte – Lars Eller – Noel Acciari
Extra forwards: Valtteri Puustinen, Anthony Beauvillier
Defensemen:
Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Matt Grzelcyk – Kris Letang
Ryan Graves – Nikolai Knyzhov
Extra defenseman: Sebastian Aho
Goaltenders:
Tristan Jarry, Alex Nedeljkovic (splitting time)
Analysis: If we’re going by what everything looks like right now, I think this is the opening night roster for the Penguins. I wouldn’t rule out another move to free up some more cap space – or for a guy in Toronto who I’ve been tweeting and writing a whole lot about – but if this cast of characters is the same one we see throughout camp, I think this is how it all shakes out.
I have a hard time seeing McGroarty starting in the AHL this season. The Penguins essentially swapped their top prospect for the Jets’ more NHL-ready top prospect, which signals to me that GM and POHO Kyle Dubas is not only rebuilding on the fly, but that he also is throwing everything at the wall this season in hopes of being at least semi-competitive. There isn’t much reason to trade a blue-chip prospect like Yager for McGroarty otherwise.
It makes sense to ease him into an NHL role on the third line to start, as O’Connor can hold down the left-side spot just fine for now (even if, ideally, he’s playing on the third line).
Related: Predictions for Each Penguins’ Player in 2024-25
As for the defensive side of things, I think my hottest take here is Knyzhov. He has experience with both Karlsson and new assistant coach David Quinn from his time in San Jose, and although injuries have derailed his past couple of seasons, there is some upside there. He and Aho would be serviceable 6th and 7th defensemen, and the Penguins don’t have to fret too much about monitoring their playing time.
Jack St. Ivany’s, John Ludvig’s, and Ryan Shea’s two-way contracts make them easier to ship between Pittsburgh and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (WBS), so I anticipate them all starting the season in the AHL. I do think St. Ivany pushes for a roster spot throughout the season, but they’ll want him to get the consistent ice time in the meantime.
Finally, as far as goaltending: I still find it particularly interesting that Jarry did not start the meaningless final game of the season against the Islanders and that they brought back Nedeljkovic to begin with. I expect Jarry to have a very short leash and for the goaltenders to pretty much split time until someone has a firm grip on the starting job.
Which – to be honest – I’m not sure that guy is either one of them. I think that guy will start the year in WBS, and we’ll see him soon enough on the NHL roster.
Ryan’s Prediction
Forwards:
Drew O’Connor – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Michael Bunting – Evgeni Malkin – Rutger McGroarty
Cody Glass – Kevin Hayes – Rickard Rakell
Blake Lizotte – Lars Eller – Noel Acciari
Extra forwards: Valtteri Puustinen, Anthony Beauvillier
Defensemen:
Marcus Pettersson – Erik Karlsson
Ryan Graves – Kris Letang
Matt Grzelcyk – Sebastian Aho
Extra defenseman: John Ludvig
Goaltenders:
Alex Nedeljkovic (1A) Tristan Jarry (1B)
Analysis: If there is anything inevitable about the Penguins’ lineup, Crosby and Malkin are the top two centers. After those two names, it’s a mixed bag of names and performances, which makes both hardcore fans and casual ones curious about what is happening with all these players.
Cody Glass should be Pittsburgh’s third-line center, but what about Lars Eller?
As Kelsey pointed out, McGroarty has a great shot of making the opening night roster, but will he immediately start in a limited bottom-six role, or will he be paired with future Hall of Famers Malkin and Crosby?
The Penguins’ top four wingers are Rickard Rakell, Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting, and O’Connor. No offense to any of them, but they all seem interchangeable, so the top line could have the vibes of “What have you done for me lately?” or “Who has the best chemistry with Crosby?”
Related: The Most Absurd Predictions for the Penguins’ 2024-2025 Season
The bottom six is all but set with a handful of players on two-way deals. Even though Pittsburgh has yet to offer any PTOs to forwards, some former 20-goal scorers on the market could come into camp and bump someone out.
Moreover, the Penguins’ top four defensemen are all but locked into their roles, with Marcus Pettersson, Erik Karlsson, Ryan Graves, and Kris Letang going to get the most minutes.
That leaves two spots for newly acquired Matt Grzelcyk and Sebastian Aho to battle for. Unfortunately, neither skater is equipped to play 70-80 games at a high level, so expect a rotation in the third pairing with a mixture of NHL veterans and call-ups.
Finally, goaltending is going to make or break the Penguins campaign. Jarry isn’t the bonafide number one, and Nedeljkovic just earned a contract extension, so he doesn’t necessarily have to play lights out for his next meal.
However, Jarry is in the conversation for Canada at the 4 Nations Face-off, so the start of the season is his chance to prove he is elite.
Looking at the lineups from 2023-24 and the budget ahead of 2024-25, it seems the Penguins will run it back with a core that hasn’t gotten the job done in the past two campaigns. As mentioned, when the opening night roster is announced, it may be a surprise – or it could be the same old tune.
Related: Will Vasily Ponomarev push for a roster spot?
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