David Kampf is considered a divisive figure among Leafs fans. On the one hand, he is renowned for his stout defensive play and has been a mainstay in the bottom six since first joining the organization in the summer of 2021. On the other, his lack of offensive abilities limits his impact, and he has been unable to successfully drive a line on his own, which has been more evident with the departures of Ilya Mikheyev and Pierre Engvall.
All of these are connected to his contract, which he signed in 2023, which carries an AAV of $2.4 million over the next three seasons beyond the one that just passed. While the 19 points (eight goals and 11 assists) he was able to produce in 78 games last campaign is about on par with what is his average production, the fact this dropoff happened at the same time he lost a step defensively is a troubling sign and has people questioning what his role with the team is and if it’s best to ship him out to clear out his cap hit. It may seem a bit extreme for some to go this route, but the reality of Kampf’s cap hit is that more is expected of him, and there are plenty of internal options at a much lower cap hit who could fill the void if he were to be dealt.
Truth be told, the Leafs are better off keeping Kampf around because he has it in him to bounce back from last season’s regression, and there is a new system that should theoretically get more out of him. He may be overpaid, but that doesn’t change the fact he is great at what he is: a defensively sound fourth-line centre who is effective on the draw and reliable on the penalty kill. And even though he won’t bring the goals often, he can certainly come up big in the clutch or make a nice move to get a tally.
DAVID KAMPF 🚨
The fourth line strikes! Wide wrap across the crease pic.twitter.com/MmzhlwoOas
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) February 23, 2024
The Expectation — Stay true to who he is
One of the reasons that led to the steep dropoff in play for Kampf is that ex-coach Sheldon Keefe never put the Czech forward in a position to succeed in the role he excels at best.
Kampf’s average ice time took a drop where he went from 15:18 in 2022-23 to 13:29 the previous campaign. A lot of it had to do with his struggles to generate consistent results since Keefe constantly shuffled his linemates throughout the season. We saw him skating alongside the likes of Noah Gregor, Ryan Reaves, Connor Dewar, and Pontus Holmberg to varying results throughout the season, which included a stint on the third line with Max Domi and Matthew Knies that ended up being an unmitigated disaster that went on for way too long. While you can understand the rationale behind why that line was put together, the execution was horrible in part because Kampf is not a line driver, and when you put him with two other players who need a line driver, nothing positive was generated.
This was reflected in his underlying numbers at 5v5, where the drop-off in effectiveness is apparent:
|
DAVID KAMPF
|
CF%
|
FF%
|
SF%
|
GF%
|
xGF%
|
SCF%
|
HDCF%
|
HDGF%
|
PDO
|
|
2022-23
|
47.55
|
48.51
|
49.90
|
49.33
|
48.83
|
48.71
|
48.21
|
56.41
|
0.998
|
|
2023-24
|
46.61
|
46.84
|
47.38
|
43.33
|
43.17
|
42.90
|
42.96
|
46.61
|
0.987
|
His possession numbers may be fairly consistent, but that decline in the offensive metrics is a troubling sign, no matter how you slice it. Kampf went from finishing ninth on the team in scoring two years ago to 15th last season, and that is a concern for someone who was never an offensive dynamo to begin with.
Perhaps this could have been rectified if he was given more consistent linemates that better mesh well with his skill set and allow him to be who he is. Kampf is never going to be a line driver or an elite two-way player, but he can be effective at providing support for his linemates by being the third man in and being able to back-check with the defencemen on the ice. For this to be realized, Craig Berube will need to make sure he finds the right type of linemates to inset between Kampf. It will certainly help to have a better penalty kill system that allows him to not look out of his depth.
The Goal – Rebound closer to his form from his first two years in Toronto.
The best way to ensure Kampf gets closer to the level of production and effectiveness is to get him linemates of a similar ilk to the combination that worked best for him: Mikheyev and Engvall. It worked wonders pairing them up with him because they are big and speedy shot suppressors who thrive when regaining possession and can generate enough odd-man rushes to keep the puck out of their end.
As mentioned earlier, Kampf never really found that ideal combination last season because Keefe kept shuffling his linemates throughout the year, and that played a factor in why his production tailored off. There are plenty of options internally that could help him in that department, with Holmberg seeming like an ideal fit on that line. Should he make the Leafs, Easton Cowan brings the energy and tenacity that could be a good match, especially since he brings a lot more to the table offensively and having a sound defensive linemate in Kampf could help give Cowan free rein to do as he pleases. Another probable fit could be Nikita Grebenkin, who made a strong first impression in his preseason debut that included a fight where he pumped up the crowd. This could also be rectified with a trade, with my top choice continuing to be Alexey Toropchenko of the Blues, who I have written about numerous times on why I believe he would be a great fit.
Regardless of who they choose, Berube will need to find a combination that works well with Kampf and stick with it as long as they can. He is not going to be anything more than a fourth-line centre, and that’s okay; what matters is making sure he is utilized properly and not being forced to become someone he is not. When he was given the ideal combination of linemates, Kampf flirted with 30 points and could realistically surpass double digits in goals. Otherwise, he struggles to generate any positive momentum when forced to share the ice with the likes of Reaves.
It is doable for Kampf to rebound to the form of his first two seasons and one that would make his overpaid AAV a little more palatable. If the Leafs can find a way to do that, he will easily make the 2023-24 campaign an outlier and not the start of a downward trend.
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