Should we read too much into one preseason game, especially the first one? Absolutely not. Is Nikita Grebenkin testing that philosophy? You bet.
Grebenkin isn’t showing his value on the scoresheet, as he was held pointless and was limited to just one shot on goal (two shot attempts and an individual xG of 0.06) in Sunday’s preseason opener, but Grebenkin brought a lot of what the Leafs crave in the bottom six, throwing four hits (taking one), and demonstrating his willingness to drop the gloves by fighting former Marlie Adam Gaudette. In a game that featured Nikolay Kulemin’s return to NHL hockey, it felt like Grebenkin was demonstrating that he could be the next great physical Russian winger for the Maple Leafs. Again, that’s excitement speaking, it’s one preseason game, let’s not act like Habs fans.
Grebenkin vs Gaudette pic.twitter.com/mtYuhuKvh6
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) September 23, 2024
Looking at the on-ice results for Grebenkin (which you absolutely shouldn’t put much stock in on-ice results during the preseason) the chances were lopsided for Ottawa and the Senators scored a goal with Grebenkin on the ice, not a necessarily a play you can fault him on as the far ice winger who was just coming on as the Nylander/Domi line shift ended, taking a GA in the process.
For the most part Grebenkin was excelling on the ice with Max Pacioretty, his most frequent linemate, and John Tavares. Things tilted the other way when playing with Ryan Reaves and Jacob Quillan, his next most frequent combination. Perhaps a lesson that for Grebenkin to work he’ll still need quality linemates to support him.
There is a benefit to considering the 6’2, 187 lb winger as an option for the Leafs and some of that comes through other hastily made one preseason game observations as well.
Calle Jarnkrok looked slow and as someone who is already I can appreciate it might take a bit longer for him to get his legs moving this fall than players like Grebenkin who have also already had the benefit of the rookie camp, but the reality is that skating is a strength for Grebenkin and his north/south speed should give him a leg up on a lot of his Leafs’ competition.
Berube’s praise for Grebenkin early on at least alludes to him getting a serious look in the coming weeks, “He’s a strong guy. He’s a big guy, strong. I was impressed with him today. It was a tough practice but his pace didn’t drop off. Big, strong kid. Strong skater. Some real good stuff there, you know. I love his size.” Those check a lot of boxes for what Leafs fans and management have been looking for and while Grebenkin doesn’t have the size, Berube was fond of using Alexey Toropchenko, another young physical Russian winger, in his bottom six in during his time in St. Louis. Grebenkin gives up a little in size but likely makes up for it in speed and skill.
Grebenkin is already familar with filling a top nine professional hockey role. Normally younger players in the KHL struggle for icetime, but over his last two seasons in the KHL, Grebenkin has averaged 14:43 a night and in the last season did that as part of a Gagarin Cup winning team in Metallurg. If he continues to play like he doesn’t require a North American hockey learning curve in the AHL, Nikita might be a Leaf to start the season.
The move towards including a player like Grebenkin in the Leafs bottom six would also come with some salary cap benefits, although some potentially tougher roster decisions with veteran players. A strong night from Grebenkin, as well as Pacioretty has probably put Jarnkrok, Kampf, Reaves, and even Nick Robertson on notice that their jobs aren’t full secured at this point.
The splash of reality is that the history of preseason is littered with players who looked impressive but weren’t quite ready for primetime and brakes will need to be pumped on Grebenkin. It’s still an uphill battle to make an NHL roster out of camp, but it does seem like he’s capable of playing his way to the top of the Marlies callup list, which is a good thing as with the KHL being an appealing option for Russian players, Grebenkin won’t want to stew too long in the AHL before he feels he’s ready.
Data from Natural Stat Trick and KHL.ru
