Matthew Knies filled a void that the Leafs sorely lacked in the form of a young, ready-to-develop player in 2023-24 – a power forward with an edge who can also contribute offence and fit into the top nine without dragging down any of his teammates.
The Leafs selected Knies with their first pick of the 2021 NHL Draft, in the second round at 57th overall. He was coming off a down year of sorts with the USHL’s Tri-City Storm, finishing the season with 42 points after registering 45 in his rookie season with the team. Still, the Leafs’ development staff identified something they liked in him, and the potential started to seep through once he joined the University of Minnesota in 2021-22. Knies scored 15 goals and added 33 points in 35 games for a successful freshman year, and improved those totals with 21 goals and 21 assists for an even 42 points in 40 games the following year. His Golden Gophers unfortunately fell to Quinnipiac University in the Frozen Four championship game later that year. While it was surely one of the more heartbreaking moments in his young career, he had no idea at the time that he was about to be part of something monumental in his own right.
Knies signed his three-year entry-level contract following the conclusion of his sophomore year at Minnesota and immediately joined the Leafs for their final few games of the regular season and playoffs. When the playoffs started and he made his postseason debut in Game 2, you could instantly tell that he had the potential to be an X-Factor for the team in the games that matter most, which is a presence that’s been well-documented as something the Leafs need in those types of games. And even though his four points through seven games in that playoff run don’t jump right off the paper at you, you could see the impact he had every time he was on the ice.
Go back and watch the notable highlights during the Leafs’ eventual curse-breaking first-round victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning that year, and you’ll notice that Knies was on the ice for just about every important goal. He was out there when Ryan O’Reilly tied the game with a minute to play in Game 3 as well as for Morgan Rielly’s overtime winner in the same game. He was on the ice for Alex Kerfoot’s overtime winner in Game 4. And most importantly, he assisted on John Tavares’ season-clinching overtime winner in Game 6. He made a veteran play to get the inside track on Mikhail Sergachev as Tavares scooped the puck into the corner and tapped it through the scrum to get the puck back to him, giving him the space to carry it out in front and eventually win the game.
Knies then scored his first ever playoff goal as a Leaf in beautiful fashion in Game 1 of the second round against the Florida Panthers.
His playoff run was unfortunately cut short after Panthers forward Sam Bennett wrestled him to the ground behind the net and forced him to leave the game with a concussion, and the Leafs would go on to lose the series in five games. His injury wasn’t the reason the Leafs lost, but his presence was sorely missed in those final games.
When 2023-24 rolled around, Knies was utilized all around the lineup. He took reps with Max Domi on the third line, he skated with John Tavares at times, but more often than not, he found himself stapled to the left side of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. For a 21-year-old that hadn’t necessarily produced explosive numbers offensively, to give him that sort of a role so early in his career said a lot about how mature his game was and how much he could be trusted by his coaches at such a young age. It had shades of Zach Hyman’s presence next to Auston Matthews early in their careers, and while it took Hyman a while to get to where he is now, his hustle and ability to clear space for his linemates is what kept him in such an important role.
Knies finished the 2023-24 season with 15 goals and 35 points in 80 games, which is a successful season for where he’s at in his career and where he was drafted. He also further implemented himself as an important part of their game in the playoffs, scoring an overtime winner of his own against the Boston Bruins in Game 5.
The Expectation – Keep doing what you’re doing
It’s important to consider heading into this season that Knies will be playing under a new head coach in Craig Berube and almost an entirely new coaching staff, meaning he’s may get more opportunities in some areas and less opportunity in others. It’s unknown how Berube will use him, but if he sticks to the top line and gets the same role on special teams as last season, crossing the 40-point plateau and ideally the 20-goal mark as well should be a reasonable expectation for the former second rounder. Knies isn’t the type of player to earn the respect of the fans on the stat sheet, so even if he keeps his numbers on the humble side, he’ll be appreciated by fans so long as he throws the body like he did last season (he led all Leafs forwards in hits with 169) and continues being that imposing power forward threat. That said, any improvement in his game from an offensive standpoint will be icing on the cake seeing the lack of depth the Leafs have on the left side.
The Goal – Earn power play time, aim for a 25-25 season
One area that will be interesting to keep an eye on this season is how Knies is used on the power play. Sheldon Keefe’s staff was stuck to loading up the top unit and keeping his star players out there for the majority of the man-advantage, and while Knies occasionally got a look on the second unit in those moments, it was never enough to make a meaningful impact. All 15 of his goals last season came at even strength along with all but two of his assists, so if he can get a spot on the second unit this season (0r, dare I say the top unit if Berube isn’t hellbent on using the top unit 90% of the time), scoring 25 goals is absolutely achievable.
Either way, Knies has a chance to instantly win over his new coach by simply continuing to do what he does best – be hard to play against and wear down the opponent. If he can continue to develop that clutch gene and score his goals when the team needs them most, nobody will be criticizing him if he finishes the season with 40 points.
