History of the 8th-best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
For the NHL teams who saw their 2022-23 seasons come to an end after the regular season, their next order of business is typically the draft lottery.
The Washington Capitals, who missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the first time in eight seasons after finishing with a 35-37-10 record, find themselves in somewhat unfamiliar territory. The Capitals will be taking part in this year’s NHL Draft Lottery for the first time in nearly a decade (2014).
The Capitals finished with a nearly identical record to the Detroit Red Wings to end the regular season. However, the Capitals were awarded one percentage point higher since the Red Wings’ 28 regulation wins outnumbered the Capitals’ 27 regulation wins. This awarded the Capitals the tiebreaker and better lottery odds. The Capitals sit behind the Philadelphia Flyers (6.5%) in the lottery who finished their season with a 31-38-13 record.
The Capitals currently have the eight-best odds (6.0%) at landing the No. 1 overall pick, where Canadian phenomenon, Connor Bedard is widely expected to be selected first. With the eighth-best odds, Washington has a 54.4% chance at staying put, but could also find themselves ending up with a first-round pick outside of the top eight.
If you look back at the history of the NHL draft lottery, you’ll find that the Capitals’ chances of landing the No. 1 pick are not completely unrealistic. However, they will certainly need some luck from the lottery gods, and perhaps Lord Stanley himself.
Beginning in 2022, the NHL changed its lottery system allowing teams to move up as many as 10 spots, thus only 11 of the 16 teams who missed the playoffs would have a chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The NHL also made it so a team could only win the draft lottery a maximum of two times in a five-year span.
Although having the eighth-best odds is not a great place to be if you want to move into the top five, here is a breakdown of where some NHL teams have moved up from the No. 8 spot in the lottery over the years. In the first year of the NHL’s new lottery system, the Detroit Red Wings held the eighth-best odds for the No. 1 pick but ultimately stayed put at No. 8.
Dallas Stars, 2017: Held the eighth-best odds with a 5.8% chance at winning the No. 1 pick, and jumped to No. 3 overall. Dallas ultimately drafted Miro Heiskanen (D) at No. 3.
New Jersey Devils, 2011: Held the eighth-best odds with a 3.6% chance at winning the No. 1 pick, ended up drafting Adam Larsson (D) at No. 4.
New York Rangers, 1999: Received from the Chicago Blackhawks, held the eighth-best odds with a 3.7% chance at winning the No. 1 pick, ended up drafting Pavel Brendl (RW) at No. 4.
The 2023 NHL Draft class is considered to be one of the deepest classes in recent years, highlighted by the likes of Bedard, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, Leo Carlsson and Zach Benson. With a little bit of luck, Washington could find their way into the top five and grab one of the league’s top prospects.
Washington has not owned a top five pick in the draft since 2007. We all recall what occurred in 2004 when the Capitals climbed to the very top, drafting that guy who knows one or two things about hockey in Alexander Ovechkin.
Here is a brief history of the Capitals draft picks in the top 20 since 1995:
2014: Jakub Vrana (LW/RW), selected 13th overall
2012: Filip Forsberg (C) (via COL), selected 11th overall
2007: Karl Alzner (D), selected 5th overall
2006: Nicklas Backstrom (C), selected 4th overall
2004: Alexander Ovechkin (LW), selected 1st overall
2002: Steve Eminger (D), selected 12th overall
1999: Kris Beech (C), selected 7th overall
1997: Nick Boynton (D), selected 9th overall
1996: Alexander Volchkov (LW) (via LAK), selected 4th overall
The NHL Draft Lottery is scheduled for Monday, May 8 at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the NHL Draft at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville on Wednesday, June 28 through Thursday, June 29.
