We’re through the opening 10 games of the season, and the Toronto Maple Leafs have been on a rollercoaster, posting a 5-4-1 record, after snapping a three-game losing streak Monday night with a 6-4 victory over the previously undefeated Winnipeg Jets.
The pace of the season can make it difficult to contextualize the long-term view of the Maple Leafs, so we’re going through the numbers today. Here are 10 stats — and some additional microstats that have defined the Maple Leafs’ first 10 games of the season:
All stats from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick, MoneyPuck unless otherwise indicated. All stats current prior to Tuesday’s games.
6.1 goals saved above expected at 5-on-5, Anthony Stolarz
Anthony Stolarz was expected to work in tandem with Joseph Woll but that plan was altered on opening night, when Woll was placed on injured reserve. Stolarz has emerged as one of the NHL’s best goaltenders through October, and his 6.1 goals saved above expected at 5-on-5 via MoneyPuck is the second-best total in the NHL prior to Tuesday’s games. The 30-year-old trails only Anaheim’s Lukas Dostal and his towering frame, lateral quickness and poise under pressure has already helped Stolarz quickly become a fan favourite.
Stolarz is expected to face the largest volume of his career and the Leafs will have to monitor diminishing returns as he takes on more starts, but that’s a problem for later in the year. Without Stolarz fending off opponents, it’s possible the Maple Leafs could be facing a steeper climb in the Atlantic — to put it generously — and there’s a strong argument to be made that he’s been Toronto’s MVP thus far.
3.95 individual expected goals at 5-on-5, Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews scored 69 goals last season, the greatest individual output since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Matthews started last season with consecutive hat-tricks, so the drop-off in production could appear jarring at times. Matthews has still been one of the NHL’s premier players, but he’s been subject to some poor shooting luck and he’s still generating chances at an elite level.
Toronto’s captain leads the NHL in individual expected goals at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick, ahead of Florida’s Carter Verhaeghe prior to Tuesday’s games. Matthews is working his way into his prime scoring locations while often being tasked with defending the opponent’s best forward, but the production hasn’t always been there. He’s hit countless posts and Matthew Knies is playing the best hockey of his young career to start the season. There’s reason to be relentlessly optimistic about Matthews and the numbers suggest he’s due for an explosion entering November.
3-for-32 (9.4%), Maple Leafs’ power play
If you’ve been following the team, even casually, then you’re keenly aware of the Maple Leafs’ power play struggles. Whether you believe the problem stems from predictable entries, or an unwillingness to shoot the puck, or personnel changes, the simple fact is that the Maple Leafs are 3-for-32 to begin the year with the man advantage. Toronto currently ranks 29th in the league, which is alarming considering the collection of talent assembled, split across two units.
Craig Berube has been working with the power play units constantly throughout the season, dedicating large portions of his practices to special teams. Berube has made some adjustments — recently switching Oliver Ekman-Larsson onto the top unit, before bringing Morgan Rielly back to the first group Monday against the Winnipeg Jets — but nothing has worked consistently.
There’s too much talent for the Maple Leafs to operate as the 29th-best power play, but it has been their greatest problem through the opening 10 games, and perhaps the most defining stat of the 2024-25 team to date. If the power play improves, so will the Maple Leafs’ fortunes, sometimes it can all be so simple.
38 shots blocked, Chris Tanev
Chris Tanev has been better than advertised and the 34-year-old is the NHL’s premier shot-blocker, leading all players with 38 blocks in all situations through the opening 10 games. Tanev left during the second period of an October 19 loss to the New York Rangers after getting in the way of a Mika Zibanejad slap shot, but he returned shortly after the third period started and hasn’t looked back since.
Toronto has desperately sought a right-handed defenceman capable of logging heavy minutes against top competition, and you could argue that he’s the best partner Morgan Rielly has worked with during his tenure with the club. Tanev is Toronto’s best penalty killer, he facilitates clever exits, and he embodies the toughness and tenacity that both Craig Berube and Brad Treliving value in all of their players.
83:02 TOI for Morgan Rielly-Chris Tanev at 5-on-5
Here’s another Tanev stat, or series of stats, if you will: as expected, Rielly-Tanev have been Toronto’s most used-pairing at 5-on-5, playing 83:02 through the first 10 games. Rielly-Tanev sport a -1 goal differential, but the underlying numbers have been stellar, controlling 61.33 percent of the expected goals during their shared tenure and a plus-11 shot differential.
Rielly-Tanev are expected to be Toronto’s top pairing, but they’ve been aided by stellar showings from Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe to begin the season, providing the Maple Leafs with a solid top-four — five, if you include Simon Benoit, who has been a fixture on the third unit, with a rotating cast of (primarily) Conor Timmins, Timothy Liljegren and Philippe Myers to begin the year. Rielly and Tanev’s workload has been reasonable, an encouraging sign for a Maple Leafs team that needs to accrue some more wins before they can entertain the idea of load management in March and April, ahead of the playoffs.
62.5%, percentage of Maple Leafs’ goals scored by Nylander, Matthews, Tavares or Knies
So much for balanced scoring! While Toronto has improved its depth, at least on paper, the idea that the Maple Leafs are a top-heavy team offensively still rings true. William Nylander, Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Matthew Knies have combined for 20 of Toronto’s 32 goals to begin the season.
If you throw in Morgan Rielly and Bobby McMann, who have notched three goals each, then 81.25% of the Maple Leafs’ goal production has come from six players. That should be cause for concern, especially for players like Nick Robertson (1 goal) Steven Lorentz (1 goal) Pontus Holmberg (0 goals) Ryan Reaves (0 goals) and David Kampf (0 goals) among others. While Toronto’s top guns are expected to carry the team to some degree, this is a recipe for real imbalance.
96.15 on-ice save percentage at 5-on-5, Conor Timmins
Timmins has emerged as the clear favourite to retain Toronto’s No. 6 defenceman spot, with Liljegren and Myers looking from the outside in. During the preseason, it appeared that Berube was merely more comfortable with Timmins’ risk profile, but he’s been a genuine asset through the opening 10 games, with a plus-two rating at 5-on-5, and the Maple Leafs are getting stellar defensive results when he’s out there. Timmins has been known to freestyle offensively at the risk of his own defence and never gained Sheldon Keefe’s trust.
It’s a new season and Timmins’ emergence has kept Liljegren in the press box — and it very well could be one of the main reasons why Liljegren gets traded this season, while the team potentially looks to create more cap flexibility.
4 primary assists, Max Domi
Domi has been used on the wing and at centre, but he has no preference and will slot in the lineup as needed. At the end of last season, Domi was among the NHL’s elite in primary assists, and he leads Toronto with four primary helpers through the first 10 games. Domi has found real chemistry with William Nylander, he cuts opponents with his lateral passing ability, and he’ll constantly be relied upon for his ability to get his puck into high-danger areas as the season progresses.
6 rebounds created, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s offensive inventiveness is something we touched on early on in the season and he’s been arguably the greatest positive surprise for the Maple Leafs thus far. Ekman-Larsson is logging heavy minutes, he’s been promoted to the team’s top power play unit (currently residing on the second unit) and he’s showing a willingness to attack, which has been sorely lacking from the Leafs’ defense corps in previous years.
Ekman-Larsson has one of Toronto’s three power play goals and he’s looking to shoot with real intention. He’s generated six rebounds, and he’s displayed an innate sense of how to turn stellar defence into instant offence. There’s a chance these numbers will regress slightly with his steady volume of icetime and difficult assignments, but Ekman-Larsson’s offensive instincts and willingness to attack have been a breath of fresh air.
4.52 expected goals for per 60, Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner
Toronto’s top line hasn’t shot the lights out, but Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner have still functioned as one of the league’r premier units. Marner has been the primary defender on Artemi Panarin and Nikita Kucherov among other elite wingers, Matthews has been a one-man shot-creation machine, while Knies’ five goals in 10 games and constant all-around improvement is a sign that this line isn’t going anywhere.
Knies-Matthews-Marner are generating 4.52 expected goals per 60 via MoneyPuck, the sixth-best total in the NHL prior to Tuesday’s games among all forward combos. It’s just a matter time before Matthews and Marner (who leads the Maple Leafs with 11 points) turned the expected goals into actual goals, and Berube doesn’t appear to be making any adjustments to this unit anytime soon.
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