The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.
Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.
Welcome to the end game of the prospect ranking countdown. We’re in the top five and today we are starting with Topi Niemela.
Niemela has slid down our prospect rankings this year as he was the third highest ranked prospect last year. I’m not sure this should be a criticism of him as much as there was a shift towards trusting when Wes Clark encouraged the Leafs to go off the board with their picks. There is also the aspect that heading into last training camp there was a belief that Niemela might make it hard for the Leafs to cut him and very early into his first shifts in his first preseason game, Niemela demonstrated how much he still had left to learn and the benefits of a full season in the AHL for him. With other prospects standing out, Niemela lost some of his shine.
Topi Niemela’s 2023-24 season was spent bringing back a lot of the hype that surrounded him heading into training camp. While Niemela’s strength comes from his sound positional play, winning defensive zone puck races, and being able to safely move the puck out of his zone, Niemela also showcased some of his offensive upside that made him a standout in his post draft Liiga season in Finland. As a rookie AHL defenceman, 39 points in 68 games is very encouraging and could go a long way in addressing the Leafs need for another quality puck mover/secondary powerplay unit quarterback in the near future.
From Steven Ellis on Topi Niemela earlier this year:
“There’s a lot of nuances, a lot of calculated decision-making going on there,” a scout said during a recent Marlies game. “You see the way he moves the puck on the power play and that’s great. But it’s the play reads on the rush, in the D-zone, that he doesn’t get enough credit for. He thinks the game proactively.”
As the season has worn on, Niemela’s confidence has grown exponentially. He’s the team’s go-to power-play defender, something he wasn’t used to in Karpat. But he hasn’t folded under the extra responsibility, giving him some more oomph in his toolset. “He works so hard to get so much better,” another scout said. “He’s the type of guy a coach can throw into uncomfortable situations and be happy with the results because Niemela is willing to take it all head-on.”
So much of the success Niemela has enjoyed so far in his career comes from his decision making abilities and in slower leagues like the Liiga and the AHL, Niemela has been able to thrive, but given the very different pace of the NHL there will be question marks regarding whether he can react fast enough and if his quick reactions will continue to yield the strong results he’s enjoyed in the second tier of professional hockey. It seems that the only way the Leafs will get the answer on that is by playing Niemela in the NHL and at the very least they should consider a full load of games for the 22 year old Finn during the upcoming preseason. A big part of what needs to be seen from Niemela is a simplification of his game to acknowledge that tidy plays will be required initially at the next level. He shouldn’t be thinking up ice to spring the forward on the opposite side of the ice, but rather the simple outlet to the centre who can take a couple of strides to get the puck across the blueline. Up until now Niemela has been able to keep Morgan Rielly aspects in his game, but for 2024-25 he needs to think more like TJ Brodie.
At 22 years of age there is a bit of an increased sense of urgency to finding out what the Leafs have with Niemela but at the same time no need to force him up the Maple Leafs defensive depth chart. Depending on how the Jani Hakanpaa situation plays out the Leafs will have him as well as Chris Tanev, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, Philippe Myers, as the means to address the right side of the blueline before even considering that Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson on options to play on the right side as well. As exciting as it would be to see Niemela make a case for himself on the Maple Leafs in training camp, the depth makes it seem unlikely and the best outcome is that the Leafs have some curiosity about Niemela throughout the year that gets him a few looks that can inform the next steps of his development.
2025-26 is more the target for Niemela. He’d have to be on a new contract at that time but it an even friendlier deal might open up some doors for him as well the potential for change on the blueline. Jake McCabe’s contract is up and Timothy Liljegren will be entering the final year of his deal and Brad Treliving and Craig Berube will have the ability to conclude whether Liljegren is in fact a 4D or if it makes more sense to try their luck on a cheaper 6D in Niemela.
Despite the question marks about where opportunities immediately exist for Niemela in an NHL role, his consistently good performance in the AHL and Liiga, as well as positive development steps affirm that Topi is still one of the Leafs top prospects. At least in theory with Niemela and Danford on the way, Toronto’s right side of the blueline could become a source of strength in the coming years instead of being a constant headache.
