The NHL trade market is an odd beast. Sure, there are structural pressure points during the NHL season when demand for assets peaks – the NHL draft is one such point and the trade deadline is the other. But sometimes, there are situations that arise that push the market approximately as high as it’s going to go, and those situations can strike early in the season.
The trade market for above-average NHL defenseman provides an example of the latter. Although it’s obviously still very early in the regular season, there are circumstances that have escalated the asking price for a capable, salary-cap-friendly (read: under team control) player – a player exactly like Arizona Coyotes D-man Jakob Chychrun.
The 24-year-old blueliner is currently sidelined as he rehabilitates a wrist that required off-season surgery. But as soon as he proves he’s healthy and back to the level he’s risen to over his six NHL seasons, there will be no shortage of teams competing to acquire his services for this season and two more after it, all at the comparatively low annual cap hit of $4.6 million.
For instance, if you’re the Ottawa Senators right now, you’ve started the season with two losses. In the small sample size, you affirmed the fears of cynics who saw the group of defensemen as not good or deep enough to provide great support to goalie Anton Forsberg and likely will be one of the main reasons they fail to make the playoffs.
How much of your young group and/or prospect-and-draft-picks stockpile would you be prepared to offer Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong in exchange for Chychrun? You’ve got almost enough cap space ($4.1 million, according to CapFriendly.com) to make the trade work. The Sens are currently holding hard to their trading price with Arizona – with no deal in sight, according to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman – but let’s see how they feel after a few more defeats.
Similarly, the Edmonton Oilers had their blueline exposed against their arch-rivals in Calgary Saturday night. On the nights the Oilers aren’t carried by superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they need better efforts from their D-men, and there are few NHL observers who would put Edmonton’s defense corps in the top 10 in the league at the moment. That would change with the acquisition of Chychrun, who would give them a size-and-smarts infusion and lessen the pressure on their other defensemen.
Then there is a longer-shot contender for Chychrun – the Minnesota Wild, who have surrendered a whopping 14 goals in just two games, giving them the worst goals-against average in the league thus far. The Wild are in the first saeson of a multi-year cap crunch, and with veteran Matt Dumba in the final year of a contract that pays him $6 million this season, perhaps Minnesota GM Bill Guerin steps up and meets Armstrong’s asking price. Immediately, he’d be saving $1.4 million in the tradeoff between Dumba’s salary and that of Chychrun. And every dollar counts for the Wild.
This is Armstrong’s job with Chychrun: he’s being asked to boost Chychrun’s trade value, and if he waits until the trade deadline, some of the teams who may be presently willing to pay up with draft picks and prospects may not want to wait until the trade deadline to move Chychrun.
If teams provide ice time and opportunities to young kids under their financial control and those high-value youngsters meet the challenge, the willingness to trade first-round picks and prospects will drop.
Or maybe some of those teams wait out the Anaheim Ducks and trade for a short-term trade rental like defenseman John Klingberg. The longtime Stars defenseman is on a one-year deal with Anaheim this year, and unless teams are ready to sign him to a lucrative long-term extension, it may make the most sense for them to bring Klingberg in on a show-me-don’t-tell-me basis for the rest of this season.
Maximizing the trade market is a delicate balance for Armstrong, but that’s the issue for all NHL GMs. Trade a player too soon, and you limit yourself to what could be a plentiful trade bounty; wait too long to trade the player, and you wind up hurting your asking price. But don’t kid yourself – for better or worse, the haul a player like Chychrun has the potential to bring Arizona will be part of the foundation of the Coyotes for years to come.
