Breaking down the Capitals’ 2023 NHL Draft Lottery odds originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
WASHINGTON — For the first time in nine seasons, the Washington Capitals will not be participating in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Also for the first time in nine seasons, the Capitals find themselves in the NHL Draft Lottery.
The Capitals finished the 2022-23 regular season with a 35-37-10 record and 80 points, an identical record and the same number of points as the Detroit Red Wings. But since the Red Wings won 28 regular season games compared to the Capitals’ 27 regulation wins, Washington has the tiebreaker when it comes to the better lottery odds.
Washington officially has the eighth-best odds in the lottery, which is set to take place on Monday, May 8 at 7 p.m. ET.
So, what does that mean? Let’s break it down…
The NHL Draft lottery consists of all 16 teams that missed out on the postseason, yet only the 11 teams with the fewest points have a chance to win the No. 1 overall pick. Teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots from the final position they finished in the standings.
By getting the eighth-best lottery odds, the Capitals have a 6% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft. That’s a full percent higher than the Red Wings, who have a 5% chance to earn the top pick with the ninth-best odds.
The Capitals also have a chance to earn the No. 2 overall pick, but the odds are just fractionally better at 6.4% percent.
Besides the top two picks, the Capitals can only land on three other selections: picks Nos. 8, 9 and 10. Washington has a 54.4% chance to pick eighth — the most likely outcome — and a 30% chance to pick ninth. The odds the Capitals pick 10th are just 3.2%.
The 2023 NHL Draft class is considered by experts to be a deep one, headlined by Canadian center Connor Bedard, who’s considered to be the best prospect since 2015 when this season’s likely MVP, Connor McDavid, was selected first overall by the Edmonton Oilers. Bedard doesn’t turn 18 until July 17, which is 19 days after he likely becomes the No. 1 overall pick.
Bedard isn’t the only name to keep an eye on, either. Michigan center Adam Fantilli and Russian winger Matvei Michkov – both just 18 years old – are considered No. 1-overall caliber players. Swedish forward Leo Carlsson, 18, is also in the conversation as one of the 2023 class’ top prospects.
After missing the playoffs for the first time in nine years, the Capitals are committed to getting back into the postseason as soon as next season. Behind an older core of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson and T.J. Oshie, a prospect close to being NHL-ready could be a potential fit alongside the team’s current roster.
