When a future Hall of Famer retires, people sometimes rush to say “there’s no replacing” that player. Roll your eyes if you must, but in this case the trope is true: the Boston Bruins simply cannot replace Patrice Bergeron.
Worse yet, fellow long-time Bruins center David Krejci could be headed for retirement, too.
Understandably, many in the hockey world are using this time to ruminate on a perennial Selke candidate, wondering where Bergeron ranks among the very best two-way forwards of his (or any) generation. From a practical standpoint, the Bruins, their fans and some armchair GMs are wondering what the team should do next, though.
Let’s go over what the team is up against and who they should try to trade for as they approach their first season without Bergeron since 2002-03.
Snug salary cap, weak draft assets won’t help Bruins replace Bergeron
As of this writing, Cap Friendly estimates the Bruins’ salary cap space at about $5.43 million, but that’s with Jeremy Swayman lingering as an RFA with a salary arbitration hearing set for July 30. Even if Swayman doesn’t match every penny of Ilya Samsonov’s $3.55 million award, it’s easy to picture the young goalie chomping down about half of the Bruins’ remaining cap space.
If Krejci does come back, even a sweetheart deal and Trent Frederic’s contract could eat up what’s left of that $5.43M, and possibly force someone like Matt Grzelcyk ($3.69M) out.
To box Boston into an even tighter corner, they don’t have much of a prospect cupboard for trade partners to search through, and they’ve burned through draft picks trying to contend. The Tyler Bertuzzi trade will cost either their 2024 or 2025 first-round pick, while they’re already without their second-rounders for the next two years, not to mention some other depth selections.
You can cite the Claude Giroux trade, which also included a 2024 or 2025 first-rounder, and reason that a team would rather take a first-rounder further in the future than none at all. Still, mush every factor together and it’s clear that Bob Sweeney will need to pull off GM of the Year-worthy maneuvering to find a Bergeron replacement.
Free agency is no answer … in 2023, anyway
There’s at least one fairly straightforward factor here: 2023 NHL free agency. That’s because it’s a non-factor.
A bargain hunting team could get some real value depending upon how things go for the likes of Matt Dumba, Vladimir Tarasenko or Tomas Tatar. None of those possible values are top-six centers, let alone Selke-winning top pivots, though.
Taking a long view, the Bruins might cross their fingers that a center such as Steven Stamkos or even Auston Matthews may become a free agent next summer.
Is that a realistic route? Not really. To give you a quick sense of how infrequently top centers become free agents (especially around their prime years, like Matthews would be), consider that Sebastian Aho was another potential UFA before signing a long-term deal to stay in Carolina.
Ultimately, the most realistic route for improvement (in the future, but especially now) is to make a trade. In that regard, the Bruins could have options ranging from big names to more under-the-radar possibilities.
Flames’ Lindholm, Jets’ Scheifele are top trade targets
So, let’s say the Bruins’ meager offerings are enough for the Calgary Flames to trade Elias Lindholm or the Winnipeg Jets to cough up Mark Scheifele.
Each player fits some specific needs: like Bergeron, they’re both right-handed and have plenty of experience playing center. The pros and cons come into focus once you zoom in.
Lindholm: At 28, Lindholm is still in his prime and carries a strong defensive reputation, finishing second in Selke voting in 2021-22 and in the top 10 this past season.
Some of his strengths may also make him more expensive both to trade for and to potentially extend, and those thoughts turn up the volume on existential questions, such as “How much did Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau inflate his value?”
With Bergeron, it was natural to wonder how much he enhanced the stature of his linemates.
Scheifele: Those who are interested in “fancy stats” will almost invariably fixate on the cons with Scheifele. Off the bat, you won’t mistake Scheifele for a Selke-baiting center like Bergeron. His Evolving Hockey player card illustrates that as quickly as anything else.
Scheifele’s also older than Lindholm at age 30. If the Bruins insist that a center trade comes with an extension, such an addition gets scary fast.
Sometimes the hockey market overcorrects for flaws, though. If teams are a little cold on Scheifele’s value, then it may simply be more plausible for the Bruins’ limited assets to appeal to Winnipeg. It’s also not outrageous for this to be an “everyone wins” situation for the player and potential new team.
This next season presents a potentially massive swing in earning potential for Scheifele, so you can bet he’ll bring maximum effort and hope for a shooting percentage surge. Theoretically, the Bruins could in turn provide the system and personnel to mask Scheifele’s weaknesses while emphasizing his considerable offensive strengths.
Don’t forget that Hampus Lindholm seemed like he was on a heavy decline, only to get rejuvenated into a dark horse Norris Trophy candidate in Boston. The Bruins may just be better at optimizing talent than many other teams.
Lindholm and Scheifele both become more intriguing if the Bruins end up comfortable with the idea of them at least starting off as “rentals,” too. For all we know, the Bruins may feel their contention window has closed and that they’d be better off not extending Lindholm and Scheifele.
Other possible trade targets
When all is said and done, the Bruins simply may not have the pieces to trade for a splashier center such as Scheifele or Lindholm. There are some other possibilities to at least consider.
Adam Henrique: Despite being limited to 62 games, Henrique nearly led the Anaheim Ducks with 22 goals this past season. His general under-the-radar stature and age (33) would likely make it easier to snag him with a package highlighted by a second-rounder or less. Anaheim would probably need to retain some of his $5.8M cap hit or take on money from Boston to make it work, but the Ducks probably want to get something for an aging veteran who doesn’t fit their rebuild window.
Nick Schmaltz: Injuries are an issue, and a coach as defensive-minded as Jim Montgomery might not view Schmaltz as a “natural center.” Still, he’s merely 27 and sneaky effective. With his actual salary rising well above his $5.85M cap hit, it’s a classic swap where the broke market unloads money to a big-market club. Unlike some other options, Schmaltz’s deal runs through 2025-26, so the Bruins may treasure a cost-controlled center. Granted, that also increases the risk factor if he’s nothing special and can’t stay healthy.
Logan Couture: At 34 and with an $8M cap hit that runs for four more seasons, Logan Couture ranks up there among potential shaky gambles, especially if San Jose retained salary. This would not be wise, but it’s fair to at least bring up a big name that a sweaty and desperate GM might seek out. Bruins fans should hope that Sweeney isn’t so sweaty or desperate.
Considering the options likely to be available, the Bruins really might be wise to rent rather than buy a Bergeron supplement.
One way or another, a drop is almost inevitable
Here’s an uncomfortable take: the Bruins were set for a significant stumble even if Bergeron gritted through whatever injuries gave him that extra nudge to retire. At 38, maybe he realized just how outrageous it was that he was still playing at such an elite level and picked the perfect time to step away gracefully.
The Bruins were set up for a step back even if you inserted a reasonably healthy Bergeron into the mix, though. At 35, Brad Marchand is also in an intense skirmish with Father Time, and his production slowed subtly last season. While David Pastrnak figures to be an all-world winger for the near future, he also won’t have contract year motivation and will likely get fewer bounces. The salary cap also forced some predictable losses (rentals Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitry Orlov) and more surprising ones (Taylor Hall traded for cap space).
Perhaps most of all, it simply would have been unfair to expect Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman to combine for goaltending at their 2022-23 level yet again.
Just about every factor — slippage for the Bruins, few easy outs in the Atlantic Division — and Boston could face a steep learning curve when it comes to life without Bergeron. Even a wise move likely won’t totally get them off the hook, but it might soften what could otherwise be a dramatic fall.
