Was the Boston Bruins’ Game 1 win over the Florida Panthers just a flash in the pan? That might be the case based on the Panthers’ dominance in Games 2 and 3. Florida dominated in Game 2 and followed that up in Game 3 with a commanding 6-2 win over the Bruins. Though they only have a 2-1 series lead, they’ve seized back control from the Bruins.
Panthers Cruising at 5-on-5
The Panthers entered this series with a relatively significant advantage at five-on-five because they have a deeper and more talented roster. That’s held true through three games, even in the Panthers’ Game 1 loss. So far, the Panthers have a 56.86 expected goals percentage (xG%) and a 160-102 shot attempt advantage.
Related: Panthers’ 5v5 Dominance & Bruins’ Lack of Discipline Led to 6-1 Shellacking
It’s no surprise the Panthers responded after their Game 1 loss, but they really took it to the Bruins in Game 2. They had a 51-26 shot attempt advantage over the Bruins while posting an xG% just above 70 percent. They finally broke through Jeremy Swayman, something no one had done these playoffs until Game 2, as the Panthers outscored the Bruins 4-1 at five-on-five.
Not that there’s any question about whether Paul Maurice is a good coach, but the sign of a great coach is one who makes the proper adjustments after a playoff loss. Maurice went back to the Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell and Carter Verhaeghe line that dominated in their first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and it paid dividends.
The Bruins had no answer for the Tkachuk, Lundell and Verhaeghe line in Game 2, as they out-attempted the Bruins 14-1 and posted an 80.8 xG% in about seven minutes of five-on-five ice time. Maurice knew they worked against the Lightning, and it’s no surprise they succeeded against the Bruins. They seem to have formed chemistry this postseason.
Game 3 was much of the same for the Panthers. While most of their scoring came via the power play (we’ll get to that in a second), they still dominated the Bruins at five-on-five. They held Boston to just ten shots on goal and only 0.87 expected goals at that game state. Even if the Panthers are the better five-on-five team, holding an opponent to just ten shots on goal at five-on-five for an entire game is some impressive work.
We’ll see what adjustments Bruins coach Jim Montgomery makes for Game 4, but there might not be much he can do. The Panthers are a deeper, more talented team with high-end play drivers and better finishers than the Bruins. There’s always the Swayman factor, but I’d expect the Panthers to control the game at five-on-five for however long this series continues.
Forsling Shutting Down Pastřnák
Dimitri Filipovic pointed this out on Twitter after yesterday’s game, but Gustav Forsling has done an incredible job of making David Pastřnák a non-factor:
Holding a team to just 0.05 xGs with their best player on the ice in one game would be incredible work. But over two games? That’s elite-level defending. The best chance the Bruins had at pulling off an upset in this series was Pastřnák going off, but that hasn’t happened so far.
That’s probably one adjustment Montgomery might make for Game 4, getting Pastřnák away from Forsling. But Pastřnák’s linemates probably have something to do with that. Pavel Zacha has been a ghost these playoffs, while Morgan Geekie has had a limited impact. Montgomery will likely need to find a different combo to help get Pastřnák going.
But even if Forsling doesn’t get matched against Pastřnák, he’s having a very good series. He’s totaled a goal and an assist and has posted a 56.55 xG%. Alongside Aaron Ekblad, the Panthers have one of the best top pairs of the remaining playoff teams in each conference.
Panthers Imposing Their Will Physically
Things got rough and rowdy in the third period of Game 2, with multiple players receiving ten-minute misconducts and getting into scraps, including Tkachuk and Pastřnák. That was partly the Bruins trying to send a message and setting the tone for Game 3, but it did not seem to have the intended effect.
Instead, the Panthers were imposing their will physically early in Game 3. Sure, Brad Marchand rocked Kevin Stenlund, but otherwise, the Panthers’ physicality was causing problems for the Bruins, specifically in the defensive zone. The Bruins’ puck play was sloppy, and that’s being generous. They were losing one-on-one battles along the wall and turning the puck over countless times. Nor could the Bruins move the puck up the ice in transition. That was a significant reason why they had only eight shots on goal at all strengths after 40 minutes.
Getting Sam Bennett back after he missed most of the first round and the first two games of the series made a difference for the Panthers, too. Bennett’s hit on Marchand in the neutral zone left Marchand ailing and in discomfort on the bench. He tried to play through it for a while but did not return to the game at the start of the third period.
There was nothing wrong with Bennett’s hit. It was clean, but that’s the type of game he plays. He’ll add physicality, and that’s not all he provides. He finished the regular season with 20 goals and 41 points in 69 games, so he will add some offense. Getting him back only strengthens the Panthers’ odds of advancing to the Eastern Conference Final.
Quick Hits
- The Panthers may have dominated the Bruins at five-on-five in Game 3, but their four power-play goals put the game away. The game-changer was Mason Lohrei’s four-minute high-sticking penalty that Panthers scored two power-play goals on to go up 3-0. That was essentially the dagger. In a postseason where special teams have played a crucial part in teams winning and advancing, the Panthers winning the special teams battle could put the Bruins to bed sooner than later.
- Though the Bruins showed some pushback in the third period of Game 3, scoring two goals and making it a 4-2 game, I’m not too concerned about that. That was likely just the Panthers getting a bit too comfortable and sitting back with a 4-0 lead. They should be fine moving forward.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
