The Edmonton Oilers are trailing 2-0 in the 2024 Stanley Cup Final after dropping Game 2 of the best-of-seven series by a score of 4-1 to the Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise on Monday (June 10).
Florida scored four unanswered goals after Edmonton took an early 1-0 lead midway through the first on the strength of Mattias Ekholm’s fifth goal of the 2024 postseason. Niko Mikkola tied the game up midway through the second period before Evan Rodrigues scored back-to-back goals in the third to put the Panthers in front 3-1. Aaron Ekblad’s empty-net goal with 2:28 remaining closed the scoring. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky turned aside 18 of 19 shots in a winning effort, while Oilers netminder Stuart Skinner made 25 saves.
While Edmonton played well in Game 1 on Saturday (June 8) despite losing the series opener by a score of 3-0, the Oilers’ lacklustre play on Monday left little reason for confidence that they can turn the series around. Game 3 takes place Thursday (June 13) at Rogers Place.
Troublesome trends that were easy to ignore while the Oilers were advancing to the Stanley Cup Final are now cause for great concern.
Oilers Being Dominated in the Third Period
Going back to Game 7 of Edmonton’s second round series against the Vancouver Canucks, the Oilers have been outscored 13-1 in the third period over their last nine games. And that one goal that the Oilers scored was into an empty net, in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final against the Dallas Stars.
For a team that has made it this far into the postseason, it’s unfathomable to think there is such a lopsided margin during these decisive minutes of the game.
Somehow, Edmonton won the Western Conference Final without scoring a single five-on-five goal in the third period of the entire series. But the Oilers’ inability to produce in the final 20 minutes of regulation has caught up with them, and on Monday it was their downfall, as Florida broke open a tie game with three third-period goals.
There’s no easy explanation for this, especially considering that during the 2023-24 NHL regular season, Edmonton scored the third most third-period goals (105) and had the third-best third-period goal differential (plus-31). What’s clear is that it can’t continue if Edmonton is going to win even just a game or two, never mind the entire series.
Monday was also the fifth time this postseason that the Oilers have lost after scoring first. They have won twice in the 2024 NHL Playoffs when allowing the opening goal.
Edmonton’s Offence Has Dried Up
There was euphoria in Edmonton on June 2 after the Oilers defeated Dallas in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final to win the series. Everyone felt such joy to be going back to the championship round for the first time in 18 years that they didn’t care how it happened.
The fact is, the Oilers won Game 6 with only 10 shots, the fewest in a postseason or regular season game in franchise history and the fewest in a victory by any team in NHL Playoff history. They won despite allowing 35 shots against, thanks to Skinner having the greatest performance of his NHL career. They also won despite not scoring after the first period, hanging on for dear life while the Stars launched salvo after salvo in an effort to tie the game.
And now, since Zach Hyman scored at 15:42 of Period 1 in Game 6 against the Stars, the Oilers have just one goal over the last eight periods.
Edmonton did carry the bulk of play in Game 1, outshooting Florida 32-17, which created a perhaps false sense of confidence going into Game 2. But the Oilers had nothing going on Monday, with only three different forwards (Hyman, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid) registering a shot. They were outshot 22-7 through the first two periods and had only 13 shots with seven minutes remaining in the game.
Of the Oilers’ top three goal scorers in the regular season, Hyman has one goal in the last five games, Draisaitl has two goals in the last 11 games, and McDavid has three goals in the last 13 games. Edmonton’s supporting cast, save for Ekholm and Evan Bouchard (six goals in the 2024 postseason), hasn’t done anything lately. The unlikely hero that rises to the occasion on just about every team driving towards the championship (think Fernando Pisani on the 2006 Oilers) simply hasn’t emerged, and time is quickly running out for them to do so.
Oilers’ Special Teams Has a Letdown
Not even the power-play can get things on track for the Oilers right now. Edmonton went 0-for-4 with the man advantage on Monday, after going 0-for-3 in Game 1 two nights earlier.
To be blunt, the Oilers would be watching this series on TV were it not for special teams, which have been paramount to Edmonton’s success this postseason. The Oilers, in fact, were outscored 12-11 at 5-on-5 in the Western Conference Final, but still won the series in six games thanks to their potent power play (4-for-11 against the Stars) and impenetrable penalty kill (14-for-14).
On Monday, Rodrigues ended Edmonton’s historic penalty kill streak, when he scored on the power play at 12:26 of the third period to put Florida ahead 3-1. They had gone 10 games without allowing a power-play goal (tied for the second-longest single-postseason streak in Stanley Cup Playoff history) and killed off their previous 34 penalties (tied for the third-longest streak in a single NHL postseason).
For the playoffs, Edmonton now has a power-play success rate of 32.8% (19 for 58) and a penalty-kill success rate of 93% (53 of 57).
Goaltending Makes Difference for Panthers
The Oilers got “goalied” by Bobrovsky in Game 1. To win Game 2, they would have needed Skinner to “goalie” Florida, and that didn’t happen.
Skinner was not to blame for Monday’s loss (the winning goal by Rodrigues was scored directly off a dreadful giveaway by Bouchard) but at the same time, his performance was nothing more than average. Thus far in the series, Bobrovsky has a 0.50 goals-against average and .980 save percentage, compared to 2.63 and .889 for Skinner.
Related: McDavid Says Skinner Is Reason Why Oilers Are in Stanley Cup Final
It might not be fair to expect the 25-year-old Skinner, who is only in his second NHL postseason, to be the difference maker in this series, especially matched up opposite a two-time Vezina Trophy winner with previous Stanley Cup Final experience in Bobrovsky. But with Florida really appearing to be the better team right now, it’s hard to see how Edmonton wins four of the next five games without Skinner stealing a least a couple of those tilts.
Oilers’ Lineup Takes Hit
For the most part, the Oilers haven’t been too badly affected by injuries during the 2024 Playoffs, but that may be starting to change.
Workhorse blueliner Darnell Nurse was limited to just three shifts over the final two periods of Game 2 after suffering an undisclosed injury. That resulted in increased ice time for the rest of Edmonton’s defensive corps, most notably Bouchard, who logged 30:40, the fifth-highest total in a non-overtime game for an Oilers player since ice time started being tracked in 1998.
Edmonton was also without Warren Foegele for most of the game, after the forward was assessed a five-minute major and given a game misconduct for kneeing Florida’s Eetu Luostarinen at 9:21 of the first period. McDavid wound up playing 25:59, 10th most in a non-overtime playoff game in franchise history.
“I think the Oilers are banged up right now, and it’s unfortunate,” analyst Kevin Bieksa said during post-game coverage on Sportsnet. “It is a war of attrition and the team that stays healthier in the Final is probably going to win it.
“Last year Florida couldn’t stay healthy (in its championship series loss to the Vegas Golden Knights),” Bieksa continued. “This year, it’s early, but the Oilers look pretty banged up to me, so they’re having to rely on those heavy minutes earlier in the series.
While Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch said he doesn’t expect Nurse to miss any time, there is a chance that Foegele could be suspended. Draisaitl, who was given a two-minute penalty for roughing at 10:32 of the third period after catching Aleksander Barkov with a vicious elbow, could also face additional discipline for his actions, although it’s difficult to imagine that would be anything more than a fine.
Whoever it is that takes the ice for Edmonton on Thursday will need to bring it. Only one team has ever rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to win the Stanley Cup, and that was 74 years ago (the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs against the Detroit Red Wings).
The Oilers have no excuse to not be able to get up for Game 3, as Rogers Place will be rocking. Puck drop is scheduled for just after 6 p.m. Mountain Time on Thursday.
