The Toronto Maple Leafs had one clear need they identified this offseason: defence.
The deal for Chris Tanev’s rights and subsequent signing of a six-year contract kicked off that action plan, and the additions of Stanley Cup champion Oliver Ekman-Larsson and rugged penalty kill specialist Jani Hakanpaa solidified it. There are a multitude of reasons you can point to as to why this team struggled yet again to advance past the first round, and while the lack of goal-scoring and the need for a timely save from their goaltender reared their ugly heads once again, the need for a stable defensive corps out of the gate was a significant one, no matter how you look at it.
Let’s talk about that goaltending thing, though.
Goaltender Anthony Stolarz was one of the team’s first signings this past offseason, and like Ekman-Larsson, is fresh off a Stanley Cup. He won’t be recognized as much as his partner Sergei Bobrovsky will, considering the latter looked flat-out unbeatable for most of the playoffs, but his contributions to the Florida Panthers in the regular season can’t be overlooked. He was the league’s leader in save percentage among qualified goaltenders, finishing with a record of 16-7-2 with a stunning goals-against average of 2.03 and a save percentage of .925 in 27 games. He brought just about everything you can ask for from a backup goaltender and was a crucial part of ensuring the Panthers finished as the number-one seed in the Atlantic Division.
Now, let’s take a look at the Maple Leafs’ goaltending situation last season. It was up-and-down, to say the least. After an impressive bounce-back season from Ilya Samsonov in 2022-23, which included the team’s first playoff round win since 2004, he clearly deserved the honour of starting in net opening night. What followed was arguably the worst stretch of goaltending this team had seen since, well, Petr Mrazek two years prior.
During 15 games between October-December 2023, Samsonov posted a record of 5-2-6 with a GAA of 3.94 and a SV% of .862. These were hands down the worst numbers of any goalie with that many games played in that timeframe, and the just-barely-sub.500 record indicated that the Leafs were forced to bail him out in many of those games through the means of goal-scoring, and it wasn’t always enough to finish the job.
These games included opening night, a 6-5 shootout victory over Montreal that included a 5-3 deficit, thanks to a barrage of goals in the third period and saved only by an Auston Matthews hat trick. A 7-4 win over Minnesota in the second game of the season (also led by a Matthews hat trick), and other games where they either couldn’t finish the job or only did because they pulled Samsonov. For the purpose of readability, I’ll list some of these games below.
October 21 @ Tampa Bay: 4 shots against, 3 goals allowed, .250 SV% – Result: 4-3 OT win
November 6 vs Tampa Bay: 12 shots against, 4 goals allowed, .667 SV% – Result: 6-5 OT win
December 14 vs Columbus: 35 shots against, 6 goals allowed, .829 SV% – Result: 6-5 OT loss
December 21 @ Buffalo: 19 shots against, 5 goals allowed, .737 SV% – Result: 9-3 loss
December 29 @ Columbus: 21 shots against, 6 goals allowed, .714 SV% – Result: 6-5 OT loss
There are more starts included (with few good ones mixed in) with save percentages that start with “8”, but those are among the ugliest. The Dec. 29 game versus Columbus was so bad that Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving opted to place him on waivers and send him to the AHL so he could get his mental game back. A goalie’s mental game is essentially as crucial as an engine is to a car, and getting him out of the spotlight was a necessity for the team and him alike.
To Samsonov’s credit, he seemed to figure it out to a degree when he came back. He wasn’t as good as he was the year prior, but in 25 games to close out the season, he had a record of 18-5-2 with a GAA of 2.70 and a SV% of .904. Compared to how he started the season, the Leafs might as well have had Curtis Joseph in net. But it still wasn’t good enough. Timely goals were still an issue, with the most timely of them all being Hampus Lindholm’s game-tying goal in Game 7 of the first round, less than two minutes after the Leafs finally broke the ice, thanks to William Nylander.
For that minute and a half, it felt like the Leafs were finally going to overcome the demons that had plagued them so long. But all it took was a weak point shot from Lindholm to get them right back in it and snatch away any momentum they gained from breaking the ice.
It wasn’t all Samsonov’s fault, and the Leafs’ inability to score crucial goals in the playoffs was a theme long before he got there. But it remains to be seen how many games were thrown away because of a bad performance in net, potentially costing them seeding and an opportunity to play against Tampa Bay in the first round, or maybe even the Washington Capitals, or hell, even have home ice advantage against Boston. You can argue that they only made the playoffs because Martin Jones dipped his foot into the fountain of youth and came up super strong for them while Woll was injured and Samsonov was at his worst.
Joseph Woll’s health is going to be interesting to follow this year. By bringing Woll back on a three-year extension worth $3.66 million annually, they’re clearly banking on him being at bare minimum a 1A and ideally a starter who can bring more than the 25 games he did last season. If they weren’t impressed enough by his regular season (12-11-1 record, 2.94 GAA, .907 SV%), then they certainly were by his playoff performance. He only started two games, but they were the two games that got the Leafs back into the series and forced a Game 7. He allowed only two goals on 51 shots in those games, good for a .964 save percentage, before suffering a freak injury at the end of Game 6 and forcing the Leafs to go back to Samsonov for Game 7.
This is where Anthony Stolarz comes into play.
The health of Woll is going to be a storyline to follow this season, and although the Leafs reportedly made some changes to his training regimen, they have to be cautious and prepared for the possibility that he gets hurt and isn’t able to play a full season. And if Stolarz can so much as not be the worst goalie in the league, it will already make the world of a difference. Now, if he steps up, plays some great hockey, and dare I say takes some starts from Woll? Or, in a perfect world, gives them a Jeremy Swayman/Linus Ullmark style duo where either goalie can be relied on at any time? The possibilities are endless for what this team is capable of if they routinely have a goalie who can stay calm, cool, collected, and give them the saves they need when they need them most.
It feels like for the past half decade, the Leafs have always had one strong goalie and one lame duck. Frederik Andersen had a faltering Michael Hutchinson in 2019-20 until they traded for Jack Campbell. Then, Andersen himself started to falter in 2020-21 as Campbell emerged and gave them strong play in net. The following year, Petr Mrazek was supposed to challenge Campbell for starts but instead finished the season with an .884 SV%. The year after that, is was Samsonov carrying the brunt of the workload while the other option was a “just-okay” Matt Murray and a struggling Erik Kallgren in net. And then last season brings us to the Samsonov debacle.
The Leafs clearly see something in Woll enough to feel comfortable giving him half of the net. And there’s potential in Stolarz too. If the Leafs get the equivalent of what Woll brought last season, they’ll be much, much better off if Stolarz can bring them a reliable 1B option. Anything beyond that is gravy.
