Morgan Rielly is the longest-tenured member of the Toronto Maple Leafs and he’s been the leader of the defence corps virtually since he broke into the league. Rielly has played through several head coaches, different systems and since his fifth year in the league, the weight of expectations of featuring for a Stanley Cup contender.
The 30-year-old has rarely been afforded much support as a top-line defender. Rielly’s offensive skill set and ability to play high-volume minutes without notable duress has allowed him to function as a true No. 1 defender, but he’s rarely been afforded a partner that could stomach the responsibilities of handling the opponent’s best line, every night. TJ Brodie lived up to this designation for two seasons, before injuries caused his form to take a major dip since the 2021-22 campaign.
Toronto signed one of the premier defenders in the league this summer, as Chris Tanev reached a six-year agreement worth $4.5 million annually, and Rielly finally has a partner who can take on the best opponents in the league, a true defensive stalwart that should allow him to roam free offensively and play to his greatest strengths.
Rielly started the year with the highest usage rate of his career as the Maple Leafs withstood several injuries to its defence corps and he excelled through the first two months of the year, before diminishing returns set in. He posted seven goals and 38 points through Toronto’s first 45 games, but he wasn’t getting any help and his predictive stats began to show some small cracks seeping in.
Rielly defends the two-on-one pic.twitter.com/8MTkrk36Cm
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 20, 2023
This was part of my summary on January 27:
Although he’s been one of the focal points of the offense in addition to his tremendous defensive responsibilities, the Maple Leafs only control 47 percent of the expected goals when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5, his worst share percentage since his sophomore season. Rielly is hovering above a 2:1 giveaway/takeaway ratio, and he committed a season-worst four turnovers during Wednesday’s win against the Winnipeg Jets that could’ve been punished were it not for Ilya Samsonov’s best start of the season.
It’s a new season ahead for Rielly and the Maple Leafs, and it’ll be compelling to see how Craig Berube’s system affects his defensive responsibilities. Throughout training camp, it has certainly felt like Rielly won’t be on an island alone with a well-rounded defence corps, where there’s greater concern about who will fill the No. 6 spot, than the high-end matchups that the top four will encounter.
Goal – Avoid diminishing returns while forming an elite partnership with Chris Tanev
Rielly’s defensive workload will be offset by Tanev, who is an elite shot blocker that excelled against some of the toughest assignments in the NHL last year with the Dallas Stars. Tanev will compliment Rielly’s offensive game and will allow him to push further up the ice as a playmaker, particularly off the rush, where he often looks to find a cutter heading to the net.
We still haven’t got a true sense of what the ice-time distribution will look like, but Rielly-Tanev should be among the most-used pairs in the league, with an eye on keeping both players healthy for the playoffs, and if the Maple Leafs build up enough of a cushion for a playoff spot — which can’t be taken for granted in the heated Atlantic Division — they can consider load managing both players for an extended playoff run.
For context, Rielly-Brodie was the 25th most-used pairing at 5-on-5 last season via Natural Stat Trick, and there’s an attendant expectation that the Rielly-Tanev group will log more minutes, while Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe form a solid second pairing. It’ll be interesting to see if Rielly flies out of the gate again with a stellar first quarter and if he can sustain his top form throughout the regular season, while playing with a stellar shutdown right-handed partner.
Expectation — Operate as a true No. 1 defenceman on a Cup-contending team
Rielly, at his best, is an offensive-minded playmaking defenceman who reads the game well and looks to accentuate Toronto’s turbo-powered offence. Here’s one example from December 19 against the New York Rangers:
AUSTON MATTHEWS 🚨
tie game! What a play! pic.twitter.com/km2jpgTEya
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) December 20, 2023
And really, the expectation is that Rielly will continue to be a 50-point defenceman, the lone defender on Toronto’s nominal top power play unit, providing stellar secondary offence from the blue line. Toronto led the NHL in 5-on-5 goals last season but that was largely due to superlative campaigns from Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and there will always be a need to push forward.
Berube has preached defensive responsibility and Rielly is usually most susceptible off the rush, where opponents can tend to sneak behind him, while he’s face-guarding the puck carrier. But this isn’t really all on Rielly — often, you’ll find that he received little support from his partner, or the forwards didn’t track back, and he’s on an island by himself. This year ought to be different and Rielly’s communication, combined with Tanev’s spatial sense, should make this a stellar pairing to watch.
Everything surrounding the Maple Leafs is cast relative to their Cup expectations, and if Rielly ends up being the No. 1 defenceman on a Cup-winning team, he will instantly become one of the franchise’s all-time greats. There is a range out of outcomes for Rielly, but we tend to believe that he’s in for a tremendous season, while logging high-volume minutes, aided by a true shutdown partner.
