Even if you look past the fact that the Bruins ended the Maple Leafs’ season once again last spring, this nationally televised matchup would have drawn plenty of attention under any circumstances.
Now that the Leafs have been outscored 11-3 by two teams likely to miss the playoffs in their last two matchups, we can safely assume the sky will be falling in Toronto once again if this matchup is lost.
The Bruins are off to an ugly start of their own at 3-4-1, though, and have scored just three goals during their three-game losing skid.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles bets below.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -105
- Bruins Moneyline Odds: -115
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-270), Bruins -1.5 (+220)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -115, under -105)
Toronto Maple Leafs
It’s pretty easy to make a case for pessimism surrounding the Leafs entering this game, but at the end of the day, this matchup marks game nine of Craig Berube’s tenure. Whether they were 6-2-0 or 2-6-0, it’s probably reasonable to wait and see how their game looks over a large sample.
If you want to be a pessimist, the Leafs’ 3.57 xGA/60 is the worst mark they have held through eight games in any season of the Matthews era and is well worse than their 3.08 xGA/60 in last season’s opening eight games. However, when Anthony Stolarz has played, their GAA was just 1.83, and it was always a possibility the team suffered through some growing pains under Berube.
One area that simply needs to be better is the powerplay, which was arguably the reason they lost to Boston last season, as they went 1-for-21 in the series. Marc Savard was brought in to help sort the unit out, but to this point, they have succeeded only 11.1% of the time.
Every player of the Leafs “big-four” is below a point-per-game, another point that you could argue as both a positive or a concern. It’s still easy to say that Matthews, Marner and Nylander will produce at a point-per-game clip this season, but it’s also possible the fit isn’t right with Berube.
The Leafs kept their lines the same at yesterday’s practice as they were Thursday’s matchup versus St. Louis, though both Max Pacioretty and Fraser Minten were full participants.
Stolarz is expected to get this start. He has played to a +5.3 GSAx and .938 save % in five appearances this season.
Boston Bruins
The case that the Bruins were overvalued in the betting markets and by mainstream media entering the season looked fairly solid to me.
Outside of David Pastrnak, the offensive core still looks to be lacking much in the way of true game-breaking talents. They banked a ton of extra regular season points by holding two elite netminders the last few seasons, which made their true top level look higher than it was simply because of the amount of points being racked up.
It felt like a reach to say Elias Lindholm would prove to be a legitimate top-line center on par with what other Eastern Conference contenders are offering. At age 36, it seemed possible Brad Marchand’s game might continue to decline, particularly after a short summer that featured two offseason surgeries.
Matt Poitras is a logical candidate to take steps forward, but that would still leave the Bruins with a fairly thin offensive core.
The Bruins have been outshot by an average of 4.99 shots per 60 minutes of play this season. They hold an expected goal share of 45.79% and a -6 goal differential. Their 3.60 xGA/60 is the sixth-highest mark in the NHL.
There’s no debating that the Bruins have a quality defensive unit, but the lack of quality talents up front could be a flaw which leaves them spending too much time playing on the wrong end of the ice this season.
Jeremy Swayman is expected to get the start in this matchup. He has played to a +1.1 GSAx and .904 save % in his six starts this season.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Bruins
The Leafs’ last two performances have been downright horrific, and it’s not overly exciting to make the case to back them in this spot. Five days ago, I would’ve been excited to get the Leafs as a slight underdog in this matchup, so I’m going to try not to overvalue two ugly matchups.
The Bruins’ overall body of work has still been worse than that of the Leafs this season, and they rightfully hold a worse record. If Stolarz can continue to play like a true number one, there is a strong case that the Leafs hold the superior roster at this point and should outperform the Bruins this season.
At anything better than -115, I see value in betting the Leafs to win this matchup.
Best Bets: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline -105 (Sports Interaction, Play to -115)
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