It was only last Monday that the Leafs bested Tampa Bay 5-2 in their Monday Night Hockey on Prime debut, and the common sentiment was that this team had the potential to be different. The rest of the week was a complete disaster, as they lost all three matchups while being outscored 15-6.
Toronto will have to make a statement Monday as they face off versus the Winnipeg Jets, who return home from a three-game road trip 8-0-0.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins Odds
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -105
- Jets Moneyline Odds: -115
- Puck Line Odds: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250), Jets -1.5 (+205)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over -115, under -105)
Toronto Maple Leafs
It’s not surprising to see that Craig Berube has opted to shuffle his offensive units after Saturday night’s performance in Boston, as well as the two games leading into that matchup.
It seems possible that the second-line center role will be one of the Leafs’ more notable weaknesses this season. The Bruins owned far more of the play at even strength with Max Domi on the ice Saturday, and altogether, the second line has not looked great recently.
Based on today’s morning skate, it looks like John Tavares is set to reclaim that role. For 11 million dollars, you would hope Tavares can step up and provide respectable minutes in that role, though his foot speed continues to regress year over year. He will be joined by William Nylander and Max Pacioretty, and it’s likely that unit will be offered plenty of offensive zone starts.
While the Leafs’ struggles on the powerplay are drawing the most attention, they have scored just nine even-strength goals over the last five games. Outside of during the playoffs, this offence has consistently been among the league’s best during the “big-four” era, and the odds are that issue won’t hold over a large sample given their priors.
Berube also looks to be changing his top powerplay unit, dropping Nylander to the second unit at today’s skate. While I’d argue it’s never optimal to have Nylander on the second unit of any powerplay, at this point, it’s not the worst idea to try and offer some new looks.
Anthony Stolarz is considered probable to start this matchup. He has played to a +5.0 GSAx and .927 save % this season.
Winnipeg Jets
This is an interesting spot to consider how sportsbooks are power-rating the Jets compared to the way oddsmakers are. Most mainstream analysts would certainly be pretty shocked to see that at 8-0-0, the Jets are only the slightest of favourites over the Leafs in a game where they hold home-ice advantage.
That comes down to preseason expectations for these two sides and the fact that Winnipeg has fared extremely well in games that look more or less like coin-flips.
In their opening nine games, the Jets hold an expected goal share of just 47.61%. They have been able to cover up for modest even-strength play by scoring on 43.5% of powerplay opportunities and because of a .932 save %.
Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goalie in the world, and the Jets don’t need to apologize for rostering him. Still, he put up a .921 over the entirety of last season, and this kind of run is tough to replicate.
The Jets top line of Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele, and Kyle Connor has still struggled defensively this season, even if the team’s other strengths have helped mask that flaw. They hold an xGF% of only 44.3% and played to a 35.3% expected goal share and negative goal differential last season.
Best Bets for Leafs vs. Jets
The Jets have been good, but there are some areas to nitpick inside their game. Their offensive process hasn’t looked as great as you might expect, considering the 8-0-0 record and their top line is still allowing a lot of looks going the other way.
Teams holding better-than-expected records tend to be good to fade, and the Jets are starting to fit that bill. I lost betting against them on Saturday, and while they were fairly deserving winners, Calgary’s undisciplined play was the most notable storyline in that matchup.
It’s easy to argue that the Leafs have more to give than we have seen recently. They weren’t remotely good versus the Bruins Saturday and were lucky to even escape with a point. There have been some growing pains under Craig Berube, to be sure, but if they can continue to get solid goaltending, the overall roster composition should mean plenty of regular-season success.
At the opening price of +105, I saw enough value for a full-unit wager on the Leafs. At their current price of -105, I see enough value for a half-unit bet.
Best Bets: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline -105 Sports Interaction
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