The Leafs will look to avoid following the same pattern we saw last week, as they are heavy favourites versus the Kraken after a convincing win over a contender on Prime Monday Night Hockey. The Kraken are off to a solid start of their own and have an identical 5-4-1 record to that of the Leafs.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Kraken vs. Leafs Odds
- Kraken Moneyline Odds: +165
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -200
- Puck Line Odds: Kraken +1.5 (-150), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+125)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +100, under -120)
Seattle Kraken:
With a roster featuring little in the way of true superstar talents, and a projected point total right in the lower middle of the league, the Kraken seemed to fly under the radar entering this season. Some arguments suggest maybe this team does steal a Wildcard berth once again, though, and that maybe come April, they will be slightly more prominent once again.
Dave Hakstol deserves some credit for the Kraken’s overachievement in the 2022-23 season, but it still seems that he was rightfully dismissed this offseason. He has never been viewed as someone with an overly sharp offensive mind, and last year; the Kraken looked entirely flat offensively.
Dan Bylsma earned another NHL head coaching opportunity with his strong work with Coachella Valley of the AHL, and it seemed reasonable to think his addition elevated the team’s ceiling relative to Hakstol.
A lack of elite offensive talents has been a knock on the Kraken throughout their brief existence and one that still exists this year compared to a team like Toronto.
Their current top line of Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann, and Matty Beniers is playing like a legitimate number-one unit, though, with a 56.8% expected goal share in 45.5 minutes together. McCann, in particular, has looked like a star with 14 points in 10 games, which is always an interesting talking point entering matchups versus a Toronto side that opted to let him go.
They dished out hefty contracts to Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour this offseason, who could age poorly but do raise the floor this season.
They are currently without one of the league’s more underrated defenders being, Vince Dunn, who will be sidelined until November 12th at the earliest. While Dunn is a significant absence, his absence has allowed quality defenders such as Ryker Evans and Will Borgen to show their worth.
Montour will also miss this matchup, as he flew home for the birth of his second child this morning. That should mean an opportunity for Ryker Evans to run the top powerplay unit in this matchup.
Joey Daccord has been confirmed as Seattle’s starting goaltender for this matchup. He holds a .914 save % and +2.9 GSAx in six appearances this season and posted a +3.8 GSAx in 50 games last season.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The Leafs have built a reputation of being a team that plays down to their competition over the last several years, and the betting statistics agree that fading them at -200 or longer has been profitable dating back to 2021-22. Of their opening ten games under Craig Berube, they have lost the three in which they were most favoured to win (Montreal October 9, Columbus October 22, St. Louis October 24).
Whether or not any of that has predictive relevance toward tonight’s matchup is debatable, but it has been somewhat of an uneven start to the season, to be sure.
The Leafs have allowed 29.15 shots against per game this season and have allowed the ninth-highest expected goals against per 60 in the league. Their actual goals against 3.20 is what deserves to be viewed as most important, though, and their 3.20 GAA ranks 15th in the NHL.
Part of that mark comes down to the excellent play of Anthony Stolarz, who is set to back in favour of Joseph Woll in this matchup. Well played to a -2.0 GSAx and .846 in his lone start of the season but posted a +7.2 GSAx and .907 save % in 25 appearances last year.
It is expected that Nick Robertson will return to the lineup in this matchup and skated alongside Max Domi and Bobby McMann at the morning skate.
Best Bets for Kraken vs Leafs:
The Leafs will look to carry some momentum from a strong performance in Winnipeg on Monday, which did feel like somewhat of a statement. Some of their current flaws still shined through at the end of that game, though, and there are some holes to poke at with their game currently.
While I liked the Leaf’s chances of earning a win on Monday, I’m not as bullish on them tonight at -200. It’s not based on the belief that the Leafs do tend to disappoint as heavy favourites quite often, either, though that trend has continued so far this year.
The Kraken looks pretty solid right now, with a mobile defence core that can move the puck fairly well and a fairly deep offensive core. On the nights when Joey Daccord is in goal, they should prove to be a fairly tough out, and I’m starting to view them as a potential Wildcard team.
You could argue that the Kraken’s five wins have all been against somewhat weaker sides this season, but their four losses have also come against teams in great form, and their only non-competitive loss was their matchup versus Carolina on Saturday.
At the current price of +165, I see enough value for a smaller bet on the Kraken.
I’m also interested in targeting McCann in the prop markets, as the Stratford, Ontario native and former Leaf has been in excellent form of late, and the Leafs’ defensive play has been far from dominant.
Backing Ryker Evans to score at +1200 also looks like a solid long-shot in this matchup with Montour sidelined, and he is also a good player in DFS with his low salary. He already has three goals in ten games this season and has a great opportunity to build on that tonight.
Best Bet: Jared McCann Over 0.5 Points -115 (Sports Interaction), Seattle Kraken Moneyline +165, Ryker Evans Anytime Goal +1200 SIA
