After a 6-3 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Chicago Blackhawks rank 32nd in the NHL with a record of 8-14-2 through 24 games. They are 4-8-2 on the road, and hold a record of 3-6-1 over the last 10.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been excellent at home this season, with a record of 10-3-0, and saw strong returns from Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies on Saturday. As they are now healthy and hosting one of the league’s worst teams, the Leafs are the largest favourite they have been this season by a wide margin in this matchup.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Blackhawks vs. Leafs Odds
- Blackhawks Moneyline Odds: +
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -190
- Puck Line Odds: Utah +1.5 (-160), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Chicago Blackhawks:
It doesn’t feel like the Blackhawks have been truly horrendous this year, and their current .375 points percentage would actually be a considerable improvement upon last season’s final mark of .317. Still, it’s fair to say that they be a slight underdog in a neutral venue versus any team in the league right now.
They have scored just 2.50 goals per game this season, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL. Since the start of November they have generated just 2.24 xGF/60, which ranks last by a wide margin – the St. Louis Blues are second-worst at 2.53
Connor Bedard’s year might seem slightly underwhelming and he has made it clear that he personally views it that way, with just five goals and 19 points in 24 games. Still, he leads the team by four points as a 19 year-old and does not have much offensive support.
Blackhawks head coach Luke Richardson has frequently shifted his line combinations, and has drawn criticism at times for the line-mates he has offered to Bedard and rightly so. Bedard centered Taylor Hall and Philipp Kurashev in yesterday’s matchup. I’d still argue having Teuvo Teravainen with Bedard makes the most sense, but Hall and Kurashev has more offensive upside than many of the combinations Bedard has been involved in this season.
Since the start of November, the Blackhawks also hold a sixth-worst xGA/60 of 3.32. They haven’t necessarily looked disorganized defensively, but a lack of true play-driving talent will always force Richardson’s side to spend more time playing in the defensive zone than not.
Defender Alex Vlasic has been fantastic and is going to be a key piece of Chicago’s rebuild moving forward. Outside of Vlasic, though, the Blackhawks’ defensive depth is a concern, particularly with Seth Jones sidelined with a foot injury.
Arvid Soderblom is expected to be the Blackhawks starting goaltender in this matchup. He has been surprisingly excellent in posting a .926 save percentage and 2.36 GAA this season.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The Leafs will look to avoid a letdown here playing as gigantic home favourites, which has been a role they have struggled in over the last several seasons under previous head coach Sheldon Keefe. Claiming first place in the Atlantic Division should once again provide an easier first-round matchup this season, and the Leafs will be back on top of the division if they secure two points from this game.
Matthews and Knies combined for four points in Tampa on Saturday in their respective returns to the lineup, and both looked excellent in all areas of the ice. If Mitch Marner can continue to carry his own line to productive results the Leafs even strength scoring should stabilize moving forward, and the top-six currently looks very threatening on paper.
The Leafs weren’t at their best defensively in Tampa, as Joseph Woll faced 41 shots on goal in the win. They have allowed just 2.76 xGA/60 since the start of November though, so that kind of performance has been somewhat of an outlier. It has looked like they have taken notable steps forward defensively of late as Craig Berube’s systems take hold, and it will be important for the Leafs not to cheat the game in this soft matchup.
Based on today’s morning skate, all four forward lines will remain the same as we saw in Tampa, and the five forward top power-play unit will also remain intact.
Anthony Stolarz is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a .921 save % and 2.33 GAA across 13 appearances this season.
Best Bets for Blackhawks vs Leafs:
There is an argument to be made that the Blackhawks currently deserve to be power-rated as the worst team in the NHL, and that therefore hosting them when they are skating in leg two of a traveling back-to-back is the softest matchup you can get in the NHL. It’s a close league and the Blackhawks aren’t far off other bottom feeders, but this is two points the Leafs must have.
At opening, I felt there was plenty of value backing the Leafs to cover the puck line with prices in the -120 or better range, but the market has moved significantly. The Leafs are now the largest favourites they have been this season by a wide margin, and I believe justifiably so, but -160 to cover -1.5 does not look worthy of a play.
Marner is priced at +135 to record two points, and I believe given the matchup that is a great number. He’s gone over 1.5 in five of the last six games, and is clearly playing at an elite level offensively.
Matthews is priced at -105 to score, and I also see value backing that price. He looked great in his return to action on Saturday, and even at -105 his chances of scoring in this game are being undervalued. Over the last two regular seasons he has scored at least one goal in 51 of 94 games (54%), which would suggest in any matchup -105 isn’t a bad price.
Splitting a unit between those two props and hoping to grab a split at worst is a solid way to attack Monday’s matchup.
Best Bet: Mitch Marner Over 1.5 Points +135, Auston Matthews Anytime Goal -105
