I’m a weirdo. One of the departures from the Maple Leafs organization that bothered me the most this summer was Kieffer Bellows, a player that seemed to finally be coming into his own during his time with the Marlies and creating some excitement around his next kick at the NHL. That kick unfortunately won’t come with the Leafs, but I still don’t doubt Bellows’ ability to be effective tertiary offence. In short, I like projects and AHL contracts are one of the more interesting ways of going about them.
The Leafs bringing in the second half of the Nylander brothers active on an AHL deal seems like a chance to revisit my Bellows optimism. In fact, Alex Nylander showed a lot of promise with his 15 point in 23 game stint in Columbus, and he seemed destined for a longer NHL look. Those offers never came or if they did, they weren’t enough that Alex Nylander would overlook the appeal of playing in the same city as William. Okay, that’s a bit naive. Alex Nylander is likely with the Marlies because there is a path to the NHL for him and the Leafs can use his offence.
The first thing that needs to be stated here is the benefit to both the team and the player by going with an AHL contract at this point. For the Maple Leafs the benefit obviously comes from having a player in waiting who can help them when needed, but the other benefit is that is long as Alex Nylander is on an AHL contract, assigning him to the AHL is a given and there are no waivers to clear. He can play on the Marlies, benefit from Maple Leafs player development, and be ready to go. He’s also still just as eligible to attend the Maple Leafs training camp as any pro tryout player would be.
From the players perspective, beyond the player development focus and potential of an ideal playing situation for him, Alex Nylander maintains a lot of control. He still has the ability to negotiate his NHL contract and if the Leafs aren’t the first team to come to him with a deal, he can jump ship at any time and join a different organization. Heck, if someone offered him good money tomorrow to play in the NHL, I’d imagine this entire plan could be scratched and he could be a Utah Hockey Clubber if he wanted to be. All of that is fair.
While Alex Nylander could jump ship, it’s unlikely. And that’s why it’s probably best to look at how Nylander’s path to the NHL plays out.
The first thing is that Nylander is a potential contingency plan for a number of younger Leafs players and that represents Alex’s quickest path to the NHL. If Nick Robertson is true to his word and won’t sign with the Maple Leafs and requires a trade or is a hold out, that’s one step towards Nylander playing. If Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten aren’t quite NHL ready, that might not be ideal for the Maple Leafs, but it is good for Alex Nylander. If none of Alex Steeves, Roni Hirvonen, Nick Abruzzese, etc. are looking like viable NHL depth options, that door becomes open to Alex as well. And with a strong training camp, Nylander can help make that case as it is hard to imagine Brad Treliving not giving Nylander an opportunity over the Marlies, just perhaps not over someone like Cowan who would require a return to the OHL if his time with the Leafs doesn’t pan out. Nylander might simply be the option for the Leafs go with after 10-games of Easton Cowan and that could be prearranged.
Like I said, that’s the quick path and potentially the most likely one. Alex Nylander isn’t likely to want to wait a long time before having an opportunity to build off his late season success with the Blue Jackets. There isn’t anything for Alex to prove at the AHL level and there isn’t going to be much desire to continue playing as an “AAAA” player in North America. Without the NHL option it seems like Sweden would have been the better options for him in 2024-25.
What other paths to the NHL could materialize beyond no Robertson and no rookies making the team?
The inevitable impacts of injuries will open a door for Alex Nylander at some point and while there might not be roster or cap space for him today, it won’t take long before players are banged up and Nylander can slide into the lineup. Conor Timmins and Bobby McMann are a couple of frequent flyers when it comes to the injured reserve, and they won’t be alone. If Nylander is on a close to the league minimum salary, he would be easy to accommodate throughout the season and add to the Maple Leafs’ depth.
There are also other Leafs on the bubble or others that might potentially be moved because they are no longer a fit and carry more salary than Brad Treliving likes. There is a reason to be intrigued by what Connor Dewar can bring to the Maple Leafs’ bottom six forward group but as of yet, he hasn’t established himself as a surefire fit. There’s leeway for energetic penalty killers but he can’t make a case for a spot in the Leafs lineup, he could be gone. As much as I have a soft spot for Pontus Holmberg, I feel a lot of what applies to Dewar also applies to Holmberg and Nylander could be an option over him as well.
Calle Jarnkrok and David Kampf will have to make their cases as fits under Craig Berube as well. Both players were favourites of Sheldon Keefe, but with a new coach and somewhat burdensome cap hits, they will need to be right for Berube as well.
That brings us to Ryan Reaves. This is all about philosophy. If you think Ryan Reaves is the type of player the Leafs need in their lineup or at least as on option on their roster, the opportunity to put Alex Nylander ahead of him isn’t going to resonate with you anyway. On the flipside, there are plenty of people who can’t imagine a world where Alex Nylander is fighting for an NHL job and Ryan Reaves is in the midst of a multiyear contract. I’ll leave it at Reaves always appears as an option for replacement but don’t think you should be surprised if he’s a regular for the Leafs throughout the year either.
The whole thing here is that it’s not difficult to see that either through Berube’s assessment of his roster, injuries, the Nick Robertson situation, or the NHL readiness of rookies, Alex Nylander will be a Leaf at some point, and likely within the first month of hockey, if he’s showing he’s the best option.
Data from Evolving Hockey and Hockey Reference.
