As we enter the final month of the NHL season, there is a lot less intrigue than one might expect. In the East, all eight playoff teams have all but locked up their spots and the only intrigue remaining is seeding. In the West, the intrigue centers around whether the Vegas Golden Knights will be able to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
If we look towards the end of season awards, a lot of considerable favorites have emerged as well. Some intrigue remains, but if you believe the betting odds, the top contenders are beginning to distance themselves from their competition. Who does the betting market think will take home awards at the end of the season?
On Tuesday night, Toronto’s Auston Matthews scored his league-leading 49th goal. It was his 42nd goal in his last 44 games. Matthews is on quite the tear, and despite playing on one of the league’s more popular teams, it seems like it somehow has gone a little under the radar.
Matthews has been scoring near a goal-per-game for over half a season now. He has a one goal lead over Leon Draisaitl in the Rocket Richard race, and he’s three goals clear of third place Chris Kreider. Matthews currently ranks fifth in the NHL in points.
The Maple Leafs have all but secured a playoff spot, and a first round matchup against either Tampa Bay or Boston looms in all likelihood. Toronto hasn’t done much winning in the playoffs, but thankfully for Matthews, the Hart only considers the regular season. It’s hard to argue that anyone has had a more dominant and impactful season. Matthews is currently +150 to win the Hart Trophy, given to the NHL’s MVP.
If you’re not quite sold on Matthews winning MVP, the following players are still somewhat in the race according to the betting odds:
Shesterkin has all but locked up the Vezina
Igor Shesterkin was pulled twice in a five-game stretch a few weeks ago, but that might be the only blemish on what has been a tremendous season for the goaltender of the New York Rangers.
Shesterkin’s .936 save percentage is nearly ten points better than the second best mark in the league (Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders at .927). The Rangers netminder has a +35.7 mark in “goals saved above average,” according to Evolving-Hockey. The second-best mark in the league? Once again, it’s Sorokin at +24.2. Not even in the same zip code.
Shesterkin has the Rangers in second place in the Metropolitan division. The Rangers have the fifth-best record in hockey. The Rangers have achieved this success despite posting a 45.98% expected-goal rate, which is the lowest mark of any team currently in a playoff position. These metrics suggest the Rangers give up more high quality chances than they generate, but they win games because they have the best goalie in the league to bail them out.
Shesterkin has all but locked up the Vezina according to the betting odds, and I can’t help but agree. The Rangers’ goaltender is currently -450 to win the Vezina. If the unthinkable happens and Shesterkin collapses in the final months, these are the other goaltenders at the top of the leaderboard:
Makar has big lead in Norris race
Colorado’s Cale Makar leads all defensemen in goals with 24. He’s second behind Roman Josi in points. He’s tied for second in plus/minus, behind teammate and defensive partner Devon Toews. Makar is a key part of the best team in the league, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him as the Norris favorite. However, I am surprised by how much of a favorite he is.
Makar is currently -300 to win the Norris, which implies a 75% chance he wins the award. However, Josi has more points than Makar and he’s got a lot less help in Nashville. Victor Hedman is having one of the best seasons of his likely Hall-of-Fame career for the Lightning.
I’m not disputing that Makar is a good pick to win the Norris, but I’m certainly not interested in the -300 price tag he comes with. Josi at +250 and Hedman at +850 are much better value bets. Last year’s winner, Adam Fox, is having another great season, but I would avoid the temptation that comes with his 28-to-1 odds.
Seider is the Calder favorite
After spending most of the season behind Trevor Zegras and teammate Lucas Raymond in the betting odds for the Calder, Moritz Seider has finally emerged as the Calder favorite at BetMGM.
Seider currently ranks 4th in points amongst rookies, but unlike the top three producers, Seider is a defenseman. He’s developed into the No. 1 defenseman on Detroit and plays in all situations for the Red Wings. He’s likely to end up with 50 points while playing over 23 minutes a night. Seider is -155 to win the Calder.
Zegras and Raymond are both +400 to win the award and the second favorites. They rank second and third in points amongst rookies. The point leader amongst rookies is Michael Bunting, who is currently +800 to win the Calder. It’s unlikely Bunting will get enough credit, considering he’s much older and also plays on the same line as Matthews in Toronto.
Another name worth monitoring is Jeremy Swayman. Swayman has started the majority of the games in net for the Bruins over the last two months, and Boston is one of the hottest teams in the league. He’s got a .920 save percentage, which ranks 9th best in the league. Swayman is 14-to-1 to win the Calder.
