When the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes faced off on Monday night it was appropriately billed as the Connor Bedard vs. Logan Cooley game.
Although Bedard is the clear frontrunner to be named NHL’s top rookie at the end of the season, Cooley has been considered his primary competition.
That began when he opened up the preseason with a truly outrageous goal in Australia to follow up a ludicrous NCAA season in 2022-23 where he produced 60 points in 39 games.
That hot start continued when he opened 2023-24 with three points in his first three games with an average ice time of 19:37, but by the time Cooley and Bedard laced up the skates on Monday, they each had five points on the season.
The pair is still tied after the game, but it hammered home the idea that Cooley might not be Bedard’s top rival right now. The young Blackhawks star scored a beauty in the first 30 seconds of the game, while Cooley managed a single assist despite the fact his team experienced an eight-goal offensive explosion.
That isn’t a massive indictment on Cooley — it’s one game after all — but he was outshone and it seems like his opportunities are dwindling. The Coyotes have dropped their top rookie from the second line to the third line, and he’s skated just 15:19 per night over his last five games.
Cooley remains a big part of Arizona’s power play, but it will take an increased role for him to live up to his billing as a rival to Bedard — who averages 19:45 and plays for a team that prioritizes giving him opportunities at every turn.
That also doesn’t mean that Bedard isn’t going to have other challengers along the way.
It’s worth noting that he isn’t even the rookie scoring leader right now — a title that belongs to Ridley Greig of the Ottawa Senators.
Greig has been a revelation for a Senators team that’s needed help down the middle in the absence of Shane Pinto. The 21-year-old has excellent possession numbers to goal along with his scoring totals with an expected goal rate (57.81%) that leads all Senators with at least two games played.
While his own shooting percentage (11.1%) hints at sustainability, his on-ice shooting percentage (18.2%) is awfully high, so his assist numbers seem likely to flatten out in the weeks to come. He also has similar ice time constraints to Cooley (15:49/game).
Another skater to watch is Luke Hughes, who has as many points as McDavid despite playing on the blueline — and who skates 19:39/night with upside for a bigger workload if the New Jersey Devils show more faith in him at 5v5.
Part of what makes Hughes interesting is the fact he’s quarterbacking the NHL’s top power play right now (42.4%). That number seems inflated, but if New Jersey remains a force with the man advantage, that will put upward pressure on his point totals — and, as a result, his Calder Trophy candidacy.
Another danger to a Bedard coronation could come from between the pipes. A goaltender hasn’t won a Calder Trophy since Steve Mason in 2008-09, but there are some candidates lurking in the weeds.
Devon Levi isn’t off to a great start, but he could be the man to lead the Buffalo Sabres to the playoffs for the first time since 2010-11, which would carry significant narrative value.
Joseph Woll still has rookie eligibility after some cameos over the past two seasons, and he seems to be stealing the crease for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Another name to remember is Lukáš Dostál, who is giving the surprisingly feisty Anaheim Ducks some excellent goaltending (.921 SV% and +2.5 GSAA). Depending on the extent of John Gibson’s injury and how the Ducks fare, he could be a dark horse.
Bedard is likely on the way to a stellar rookie season that results in the commiserate hardware at the end of the season, but that’s not an inevitability. After all, neither of the players he’s most often compared to — McDavid and Sidney Crosby — were recognized as the NHL’s top rookie in their debut seasons.
While Cooley initially appeared to be an interesting rival for Bedard, it’s looking less likely that the two are in for an epic one-on-one battle. Instead, the Blackhawks phenom seems like he’ll deal with a crowded field including plenty of interesting Calder candidates, each of whom will need some breaks to take off.
