After arriving as an NHL power in 2022-23 with a 112-point campaign, the New Jersey Devils have come out of the gates this season showing much of what made them elite last season.
The Devils are scoring four goals per game, their power play is the most efficient unit in the NHL (42.3%), no team has a better 5v5 scoring chance rate (62.28%) and Jack Hughes has been the most productive offensive force in the league.
Some of New Jersey’s new elements are also clicking into place nicely.
Offseason trade acquisition Tyler Toffoli has been an excellent trigger man for Hughes with six goals already, and rookie defenseman Luke Hughes is off to a solid start while playing an important role on the buzzing power-play unit.
With all of those positive developments, it’s surprising to see this talented squad post a 3-2-1 record with a goal differential of just plus-1. The team has just one win by a multi-goal margin, and it’s dropped games to lesser opponents like the Arizona Coyotes and Washington Capitals.
The biggest reason for that is what’s going on between the pipes.
Following a rough performance in a 6-4 loss to the Capitals on Tuesday the duo of Vítek Vaněček and Akira Schmid have combined for a save percentage of .885.
The game was started by Schmid, who stopped just five of the eight shots he faced. When Vaněček took over he fared better, but ultimately conceded the game winner via a weak backhand sneaking through.
Watching solid work get undermined by questionable netminding is a familiar feeling for the Devils, who saw their goaltenders combine for a .888 save percentage in the 2022-23 playoffs as Vaněček stumbled (.821) and Schmid picked up the slack (.921).
So far in 2023-24 it’s been the reverse as Vaněček’s work has generally been palatable (.900 SV%) while Schmid has struggled in limited action (.863).
Both the playoffs and the beginning of 2023-24 represent small samples, and it’s worth remembering that this duo was strong during the 2022-23 regular season, combining for a .913 save percentage and +15.7 GSAA in 62 starts
The Devils could reasonable assert their crease is in safe hands based on those numbers, but that seems like an overly optimistic view of the situation.
Prior to 2022-23, Vaněček had never topped 0.9 GSAA in a season or started more than 39 games. He seems to have a reasonable floor, but the above-average production New Jersey got from him last season could easily be an outlier.
Schmid is a wild card who gave the Devils excellent production between the pipes last year, but he’s also a 23-year-old fifth-round pick with only 21 NHL starts under his belt. He doesn’t have an incredible AHL resume to lean on, either. Schmid was solid, but unspectacular at that level in 61 games (.909 SV%) between 2021-22 and 2022-23.
If the Devils get the type of goaltending they received from their current tandem during the last regular season they will be more than fine. This team is explosive enough that it doesn’t need to be amongst the best goal-suppression squads in the NHL to thrive.
Assuming that Vaněček can replicate a career year and Schmid is the real deal seems presumptuous, though. New Jersey knows that, or it wouldn’t have engaged in any flirtation with Connor Hellebuyck in the offseason.
Now the Devils are in a difficult position as goaltending issues have the potential to erode their success, but Hellebuyck re-signing with the Winnipeg Jets takes the most obvious external upgrade off the market.
The pool of goaltenders on expiring contracts is awfully thin headlined by names like Ilya Samsonov and Marc-André Fleury, both of whom are likely to stay put if they are doing well enough to be worthy of consideration.
There are a couple of possible upgrades heading for restricted free agency in Carter Hart and Jeremey Swayman, but acquiring either goaltender would take a king’s ransom. The Boston Bruins would also be reluctant to deal to another Eastern Conference power if they moved off their 1B goaltender, and the Flyers wouldn’t be eager to trade within the Metropolitan Division.
Outside of goalies on expiring contracts, options for finding goaltenders tends to be restricted to guys on teams in deep rebuilds. Those teams don’t have much to offer in that regard right now, except for perhaps the Anaheim Ducks with John Gibson. Gibson is on a heavy contract ($6.4 million AAV through 2026-27) that isn’t worth the trouble it would take to fit and accommodate, though.
That leaves the Devils in a position where their best option is counting on the goalies they’ve got. Although that’s no guarantee to be a disaster, it hasn’t look great so far.
