ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA | MONTREAL, QC. — On Saturday, the Canadiens lost a goal-filled game against the Vegas Golden Knights. This loss leaves the team with a record of 5-6-1, 23rd overall in the NHL. This is a better than expected start to the regular season for a team that didn’t win a single preseason game.
However, those hoping that the Canadiens end up at the bottom of the NHL standings to earn the best chance to draft Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli may not be too happy.
After 12 games, Montreal is on a .458 points percentage pace up just slightly from a .432 pace in 37 games playing under Marty St. Louis last season. Should they improve their play to earn a .500 points percentage record, that would likely take them out of picking in the top-10 of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
But that’s not as bad as it seems. In fact, I would argue that the most important thing for the Habs in the 2023 draft is not to draft high but to drafting well.
A look at some players drafted outside the top-10 in the past five years shows that not only top picks can become stars in the NHL.
Montreal’s dynamic duo
As a Habs fan, the first two examples of impactful players are Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield.
The two forwards are the team’s leading scorers. In 12 games played, Suzuki has eight goals and seven assists for a total of 15 points. Caufield has eight goals and six assists. Yet, both players were drafted outside the top-10 in their respective draft years.
Suzuki was selected 13th overall by the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017. Caufield was selected 15th overall in 2019.
West Coast highlight reels
Two other players drafted recently also show that drafting high is not the only way to get star players. Both players play for western conference teams. These players are Robert Thomas and Matt Boldy.
Like Suzuki, Thomas was drafted in 2017. The young 23-year-old St. Louis Blues center signed a eight year $8.125 million AAV contract this summer. It is a well-deserved contract after his 2021-’22 season, in which he scored 77 points in 72 games. The Blues have a great player in Thomas. And yet, he was drafted 20th overall in 2017.
Of course, Cale Makar, Miro Heiskanen and Elias Pettersson are probably the top players from that draft and all of them were drafted in the top five. But according to Adam Kimelman’s 2017 NHL redraft, Thomas is the fourth-best player from the 2017 draft to date. What’s more, he is followed by Jason Robertson, who was drafted 39th overall by the Dallas Stars.
Boldy, on his hand, was taken three spots before Caufield in the 2019 draft. He was selected 12th overall by the Minnesota Wild. So far, he has had a great start to his young career. In 2021-’22, he put up 39 points in 47 games. This season, he is already at 10 points in 11 games.
On the other hand, not every top pick is a success story.
Top picks don’t guarantee success
When I think about a top pick, I tend to think about players like Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews and Sydney Crosby. Obviously, the idea of getting to see a player like that on the Canadiens roster is very exciting.
However, players like that don’t grow on trees. These players are generational talents and, by definition, generational players aren’t available in every draft.
Furthermore, history has shown that top picks don’t necessarily turn out to be top players in the league.
Unfortunately, this is the case for Jesperi Kotkaniemi so far. When Kotkaniemi was drafted third overall by the Canadiens in 2018, people expected him to become a future second-line center.
But things didn’t turn out that way in Montreal. Indeed, Kotkaniemi signed an offer sheet in 2021 after an inconsistency-riddled second and third year with the Canadiens.
To be fair, the choices made by the organization and coaches regarding Kotkaniemi’s development didn’t help his chances of success. This is well explained in a Habs Magazine post dating from 2021 states. This is not to say his development is completely derailed.
With the Carolina Hurricanes so far though, Kotkaniemi hasn’t shown his full potential quite yet. There’s still a lot of time for improvement, considering KK is only 22 years old. But he is going to have to show more to become an effective second-line center, which is the expectation set upon him.
Very disappointing top picks
While Kotkaniemi is young and can still become a very good player in the league, the same cannot be said about previous top picks who aren’t or didn’t meet fans’ expectations.
Examples include Nail Yakupov, Sam Bennett and Jonathan Drouin. Bad development or injuries might explain why they didn’t become top players in the league. Nonetheless, these examples show that being a top pick isn’t a guarantee of success in the NHL.
Many other examples of disappointing top picks could be named. As a Kotkaniemi fan however, I don’t think KK can be put in that category, who includes names like Alexandre Daigle (1st overall in 1993) and Erik Gudbranson (3rd overall in 2010).
To tank or not to tank
I definitely would love to see the Canadiens draft top talent like Bedard or Fantilli. However, as the examples described above highlight, drafting the right player at the right spot is very important.
Therefore, even if the team keeps getting wins and gets up to around 82 points at the end of the season, this won’t necessarily hurt the rebuild. On the contrary, with a good pick, the Canadiens will accelerate their path to becoming a Stanley Cup contender.
By Gustave Pinault-Masson, Staff Writer
All Habs Hockey Magazine
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