Between the Panthers, Leafs, Bruins, and Lightning we’re getting a taste of just how tough the Atlantic Division is in the playoffs. Of course there’s another side of the division and they are getting their time at 6:30pm ET on Tuesday with the draft lottery. Between the Canadiens, Red Wings, Senators, and Sabres there is a 38.3% chance that the top pick will be made by an Atlantic DIvision team, with Montreal having the best shot at it, with 18.5% odds of winning it themselves, but more accurately 19.7% odds of picking first overall when you factor in that teams can only move up a maximum of ten spots this year.
Here’s the breakdown of the odds, and the new rules from the NHL:
The NHL announced changes to the Draft Lottery format on March 23, 2021. Among the changes taking effect this season, there will be a limit on the total number of selections (10) a team participating in the Draft Lottery can “move up†in the event it wins one of the Lottery Draws. Thus, only the top 11 seeds will be eligible to receive the first overall selection in the 2022 NHL Draft.
The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery Draw of the 2022 NHL Draft Lottery is as follows:
Draft Lottery Participants Odds
Montreal Canadiens 18.5%
Arizona Coyotes 13.5%
Seattle Kraken 11.5%
Philadelphia Flyers 9.5%
New Jersey Devils 8.5%
Chicago Blackhawks * 7.5%
Ottawa Senators 6.5%
Detroit Red Wings 6.0%
Buffalo Sabres 5.0%
Anaheim Ducks 3.5%
San Jose Sharks 3.0%
Columbus Blue Jackets 2.5%
New York Islanders 2.0%
Winnipeg Jets 1.5%
Vancouver Canucks 0.5%
Vegas Golden Knights ** 0.5%
Hilariously, the Blackhawks pick that was traded for Seth Jones is only top two protected, so win or lose that adds a fun chaotic factor. The only other traded pick in the top 16 is the Vegas pick that went to Buffalo for Jack Eichel, and it is top ten protected. Odds are with 0.5% odds that pick will be transferred to the Sabres.
From a best case scenario for the Leafs perspective, it would be the Ducks and Sharks winning the two lottery draws and bumping back all of the Atlantic teams two spots. A more realistic positive outcome would probably be hoping that a couple of teams in the Coyotes, Kraken, Flyers, Devils, and Blackhawks range that hold 50.5% odds of winning. Not having to deal with Shane Wright or Logan Cooley would certainly make life easier, although the top ten of this draft is still going to significantly improve the competition in an already tough division.
Here’s the final list of North American and Internation draft rankings from NHL Central Scouting:
The good news for the Leafs is that when looking at these lists there are plenty of players that have a lot to add that will be available at the bottom of the first round as well. So with Toronto holding their first round pick this year, so they won’t be coming out of this empty-handed either.
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