If the Toronto Maple Leafs escape their first-round battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning there will be an easy narrative to lean on about this team finally finding the right players to put around its core.
General manager Kyle Dubas will get showered with credit for adding a Conn Smythe winner in Ryan O’Reilly, toughness on the back end in Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn, plus a few nifty bottom-six forwards to boost the team’s depth.
Should Toronto advance — which FiveThirtyEight gives a likelihood of 92 percent but few Maple Leafs fans feel that confident about — Dubas will deserve his flowers on that count. There’s no doubt that O’Reilly, in particular, has been a difference maker. While it’s tough to quantify the value of Toronto’s additional sandpaper, the results are there so far.
All of that said, the reason the Maple Leafs were a team worthy of a midseason shopping spree in the first place is top-of-the-roster players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.
That quintet has undeniably disappointed in the club’s recent run of playoff appearances and as the Maple Leafs look to flip the script this season, that’s the group making the biggest difference.
Toronto’s talented core has had a hard time matching its regular-season scoring production in postseasons past, but every one of them has been excellent in this series.
Auston Matthews
For most players, 17 goals in 39 games (0.44 per game) is pretty impressive, but during the regular seasons prior to each of the Maple Leafs’ previous six playoff appearances, Matthews averaged 0.57 goals per game with two Rocket Richard Trophy wins.
While the superstar centre deserves credit for his work in last year’s battle against the Lightning (five goals, four assists and a 57.7% Corsi For), he’s also experienced two seven-game series with a single goal scored (2017-18 and 2020-21).
Matthews had been quietly productive in this season’s duel with Tampa Bay until a Game 4 performance where he scored two third-period goals in less than three minutes, bringing the game from 4-1 to 4-3.
That moment of brilliance was supported by impressive underlying numbers throughout the series. During his 67:42 of even-strength ice time, the Maple Leafs have outshot the Lightning 35-26 and outscored them 5-3 — with an xGF% of 61.14%.
Mitch Marner
Although Marner provides provides plenty of value beyond his scoring output thanks to his penalty killing and solid defensive work, his playoff statistics prior to this season are tough to defend. While 0.85 points per game is not disastrous, it’s not great for a guy with a 1.08 points-per-game average in the previous six seasons.
This is a player who ranks 33rd all-time in regular-season points per game — ninth among current players. The lack of postseason goal scoring stands out, as does the winger’s odd penchant for throwing the puck over the glass in desperate situations.
Marner hasn’t matched some of his fellow Maple Leafs stars when it comes to generating dramatic moments in this series, but he leads all NHL players in postseason points (10) and his on-ice numbers are outstanding.
The Maple Leafs have outshot Tampa Bay 36-24 and outscored them 6-1 in his even-strength minutes, and his xGF% of 64.66% is tops among all Toronto skaters with more than 10 minutes of ice time.
Morgan Rielly
Rielly is a slightly different case than the others because his offensive production in the playoffs has rarely come under fire. He’s generally provided approximately what you’d expect based on his regular-season statistics.
That hasn’t been the case this time around, though, as he’s been electric after struggling through most of 2022-23. After scoring just four goals during the regular season, the longtime Maple Leaf has two crucial markers, including a dramatic overtime winner in Game 3.
There’s some flukiness to Rielly’s pair of high-leverage goals — both of which Andrei Vasilevskiy would like back — especially considering he’s a pass-first offensive defenceman with just two campaigns of double-digit goal scoring.
Even so, he deserves credit for jumping into the play all series long and putting pressure on Tampa Bay’s defensive structure. He’s also provided far calmer minutes than he did during the regular season, when he saw his ice time fall to its lowest level since 2017-18.
The Maple Leafs have conceded just three goals with Rielly on the ice while scoring 11 — with eight of those coming at even strength.
William Nylander
Like Rielly, Nylander’s production hasn’t meaningfully waned in the postseason. His 0.77 points per game in the playoffs prior to 2022-23 is almost an exact match for his output during those regular seasons (0.79).
It’s clear the Swede has been even better in these playoffs as just three players have more points than the winger.
His Game 4 performance was an intriguing rollercoaster as he had a notably rough beginning to the game…
… before assisting on three of the Maple Leafs’ final four goals. He also generated a Grade-A chance in overtime, which drew the penalty that led to the decisive goal.
Nylander is far from the headliner in this series, but he’s undoubtedly doing his part.
John Tavares
Of the five Toronto stars, Tavares has been the least productive, but he’s been an important figure in this series.
The captain’s hat trick helped drive a massive Game 2 win that prevented the Maple Leafs from falling in a hole, and his net-front presence was essential to Rielly sneaking a point shot in for the tying goal in Game 4.
While Tavares has been less prolific than the others, his contribution is notable in part due to his inability to help put Toronto over the top in the past, which is what he was brought in to do.
A nasty collision with Corey Perry robbed him of the opportunity to help in 2020-21, and his points production in the playoff games he’s played in a Maple Leafs sweater prior to this postseason (0.70 per game) was dwarfed by what he managed in the regular season (0.98).
The possession metrics indicate Tavares is treading water in this series more so than driving the play, but he’s also winning draws at a solid clip (56.5%) and giving the power play a boost.
