The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a tailspin that their mediocre win-loss record simply cannot compute. In the first fortnight of the season, they have lost six times – twice in overtime – to squads they absolutely should have beaten.
Already, just one-tenth of the way into the campaign, the Scotiabank Arena pressure cooker is at risk of implosion. The Maple Leafs have lost four straight, with their latest defeat – an overtime blunder versus the Anaheim Ducks – sending shockwaves through the franchise.
Toronto’s shambles in Anaheim is especially consequential, not least because star forward – and boyhood fan – Mitch Marner was benched for six minutes in the final period by head coach Sheldon Keefe.
It was a risky decision on Keefe’s part, especially as he bumped heads with the 25-year-old a week earlier, and it backfired. The Leafs squandered their slim third period lead with Marner on the bench and lost in overtime with him on the ice.
Marner went to blow off some steam pic.twitter.com/A3yIjBNron
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) October 31, 2022
Now, the Keefe-Marner relationship is under the microscope, with emphasis on the player’s temperament.
Marner is a “passionate” – or, as others might put it, combustible – character who doesn’t take kindly to censure from his coaches. When he was demoted to the fourth line in his sophomore season, he kicked up a fuss that eventually culminated in the firing of then-head coach Mike Babcock.
Keefe, meanwhile, was promoted from the Toronto Marlies as Babcock’s replacement and has spent most of his time behind the bench accommodating his stars. He reunited Marner with Auston Matthews on the top line, a decision which propelled both to career years.
But they have fallen flat this term, especially at five-on-five, and are major contributors to Toronto’s poor start. They aren’t, however, receptive to noise from outside the locker room.
“We started off a lot worse last year and everyone tried to put shambles in our brain. It’s not gonna happen with us,” Marner told reporters in Anaheim. “We’re blocking it out. We know that we’ve got that confidence in the room. We’ve got the players in the room. It’s just about making sure we stick with out systems and stuff’s gonna start falling for us.”
However, patience is wearing thin in Toronto – and the players aren’t the only ones under scrutiny.
Kyle Dubas, in the final season of his five-year contract as general manager, is also under fire. He made several risky moves in the offseason, many of which have already backfired.
His decision to trade for injury-prone netminder Matt Murray caused eyebrows to jump across the league, as did his refusal to reshuffle his core in the aftermath of another first-round playoff exit. Instead, he stuck with ageing defenceman Jake Muzzin, allowed several players to walk away at the end of their contracts, and staked his reputation on this group getting it done.
Granted, the season is only two weeks old. But all of those choices have flopped in the early running. Murray and Muzzin are injured, Toronto’s core hasn’t produced, and his free agent additions are yet to click. This group isn’t even close to getting it done.
If the Leafs suffer another playoff shambles this season, or miss the postseason altogether, Dubas won’t be renewed and a dramatic shift in organisational culture will commence. Keefe also finds himself on a ferocious hotseat. If he can’t turn the team’s form around, he could be out before the season is finished. It’s a bleak situation, to say the least.
Shambles: Can the Toronto Maple Leafs play their way out of trouble?
If the Leafs want to turn their season around, they have two options: make a trade or sack the coach.
They shouldn’t fire Keefe: he owns the highest win percentage in the franchise’s 105-year history and has shown potential throughout his tenure in Toronto. He also won the AHL’s Calder Cup with the Marlies and has, until now, handled crises of confidence.
There would also be an irony to sacking Keefe for his team’s poor start because the current situation bears similarities with the end of the Babcock era. He hasn’t lost the locker room; it feels like the locker room has lost itself.
With that said, the Maple Leafs should pursue a trade at the earliest opportunity. Toronto has several contracts they could conceivably shift mid-season. Alex Kerfoot carries a $3.5 million cap hit and is rarely influential in his jack-of-all-trades role. Justin Holl is another candidate: he has been a defensive liability this season.
Alternatively, the Maple Leafs could trade a core piece. But that feels unlikely.
John Tavares is the captain, has a no-move clause, and is currently the team’s top performer. William Nylander is unflappable and therefore uniquely suited to playing in a market like Toronto. Matthews is a perennial MVP candidate. Morgan Reilly just inked a big-ticket contract extension. They won’t be dealt.
So, could it be Marner? His determination to win for his club has driven him to breaking point at various moments in his professional career. He is also the protagonist in the latest media storm and has struggled this term. In all likelihood, though, the answer is ‘no’. Why would the Leafs trade their best playmaker when his value is at its lowest?
There is, of course, an unpalatable third option: Dubas could sit on his hands and hope that the Leafs will play its way out of their shambles. They might, but what if they don’t or can’t?
it’s time for a reshuffle in Leafland. Dubas must act now.
Will the Leafs find a route out of their ‘shambles’? Join the discussion by tweeting @BritIceHockey.
