Home Leagues NHL Awards Preview: The Chances a Ducks Goaltender Wins the Vezina

NHL Awards Preview: The Chances a Ducks Goaltender Wins the Vezina

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NHL rookie camps, training camps, and preseason are mere weeks away, and the page will be turned on the seemingly endless offseason of 2024.

The Anaheim Ducks are in the midst of the NHL’s fourth-longest playoff drought (Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators), having missed the playoffs and been among the bottom ten teams of the NHL standings for six straight seasons.

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Like many teams at the bottom of the NHL standings in 2023-24, their goal for 2024-25 is to make significant strides toward contention and play more meaningful hockey later in the season.

To achieve that goal, several roster players, young and veteran, along with the coaching staff will have to raise some eyebrows, turn some heads, and possibly even emerge as NHL Awards candidates.

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Vezina Trophy

The Vezina is awarded annually to the NHL goaltender “adjudged to be the best at this position” for a given season.

According to BetMGM, the current favorites to win the Vezina are 2024 winner Connor Hellebuyck (+600), Igor Shesterkin (+600), and Jeremy Swayman (+600).

56 goaltenders are eligible for wagers, including Ducks netminders, Lukas Dostal and John Gibson. They are each considered the longest of long shots, sitting at +25000 with players like Sam Montembeault, Elvis Merzlikins, Joonas Korpisalo, and 18 others.

Where the Ducks Goaltending Outlook Ranks Among NHL Teams

The goaltenders typically nominated are among the league leaders in traditional statistical categories like save percentage, wins, and goals against average.

The Ducks aim to divide starts relatively evenly between Dostal and Gibson in 2024-25. In an unlikely scenario where either Ducks goaltender emerges as a true Vezina contender, a couple of events must have taken place; one of the goalies “wins” the net outright (or the other is injured), receiving the bulk of the starts and the Ducks stun the majority of the hockey world and make the playoffs.

Over the past six seasons, the Ducks have won the least amount of games (aside from the Seattle Kraken who entered the league in 2021-22) and have allowed the fourth-most goals in the NHL.

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Not only have they allowed the second-most shots per game (33.7) in that time, trailing only the Blackhawks (33.8), but the number of goals scored from odd-man rushes, seam passes, breakaways, layered screens, breakaways, tips, etc. is astonishing. Simply put, their goaltenders (specifically John Gibson) have been hung out to dry for the better part of a decade.

The Ducks hired Greg Cronin as head coach and Brent Thompson as defensive and penalty kill coach before the 2023-24 season. With them they brought a high-pressure man-to-man defensive system, demanding unrelenting diligence and aptitude. There was an adjustment period and growing pains weren’t uncommon in their first year, but the Florida Panthers won the 2024 Stanley Cup with similar tactics and philosophy. The proof of concept exists.

The tandem the Ducks are set to deploy in net for the 2024-25 season isn’t lacking in talent and can be among the best in the NHL if the team in front of them limits the overwhelming number of grade-A scoring chances.

John Gibson (+25000)

Dating back to his rookie season of 2014-15, Gibson (31) has started the fifth-most games in the NHL among goaltenders. Between 2014 and 2018, Gibson led the NHL in SV% among goaltenders with more than 85 starts. He was poised to lead the Ducks into the future between the pipes as one of the NHL’s truly elite netminders.

Since the Ducks were swept by the Sharks in the 2018 playoffs, the team’s defensive structure crumbled around Gibson. He’d been overworked, starting in at least 51 games per season before 2023-24 and when healthy, likely started around 80% of games.

As seasons drew on, energy levels and/or focus waned, and shot totals piled up, Gibson’s numbers (traditional and underlying) plummeted. He’s failed to provide a league-average SV% or positive goals saved above expected (GSAx) number since the 2018-19 season.

That said, Gibson’s talent hasn’t faltered or fluctuated. He remains positionally sound, true to angles, and when he can see a shot, he generally stops it and often displays jaw-dropping athleticism. He does tend to struggle tracking pucks through traffic.

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Gibson continually puts the team in front of him in a position to win, makes the saves he’s supposed to, and seldom allows a soft goal, a rare quality in the modern NHL.

Lukas Dostal (+25000)

Dostal (24) had an impressive NHL rookie season in 2023-24, starting 38 games, posting a nearly league-average SV% of .902, and saving -4.42 goals above expected. He earned his first career shutout on March 21 against the Blackhawks.

Like Gibson, Dostal rarely cost his team a game and often kept them in games in which they shouldn’t have reasonably stood a chance. He did let in some goals that squeaked through his arm and body on occasion, but they were seldom back-breaking.

Dostal is a technically proficient goaltender. He is always square to pucks, often can find them through traffic, and is consistently poised when plays break down or when scrambling. He’s an expert at playing pucks for teammates and will often dazzle with a spectacular moment each game.

Dostal led Czechia to a World Championship gold medal in May, backstopping eight games, allowing a total of 13 goals, posting a .939 SV%, and three shutouts, including in the gold medal game against Switzerland.

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He’s ready for an increased workload and seems to welcome the challenge if called upon.

The goaltending position in the NHL has evolved in recent years. Save percentages decrease year after year and numbers are more reliant on the team playing in front of the crease.

In the modern NHL, excellent goaltenders are unlikely to turn poor teams into good teams, but can still elevate good teams into great teams. If the Anaheim Ducks can find a way to provide quality play in front of their goaltenders, either of them has the capability to push them even further.

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