The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to respond to a disappointing loss on home ice Saturday versus the Rangers as they host another Eastern Conference contender in the Tampa Bay Lightning.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles bets below.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds
- Lightning Moneyline Odds: +110
- Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds: -130
- Puck Line Odds: Lightning +1.5 (-225), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+185)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -110, under -110)
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning were forced to make another pair of difficult decisions last offseason, as they parted ways with two cornerstones from their Cup-winning rosters in Steven Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev.
Stamkos’ even-strength play fell off considerably in the last two seasons, which likely helped the Lightning make a very tough decision in letting their Captain walk away.
Letting Stamkos walk opened the door for Jake Guentzel’s addition, and Guentzel has fit in seamlessly on the top line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov as expected. The trio should help power the Lightning to one of the league’s most effective powerplay units once again this season and have already combined for 18 points across all strengths this season.
J.J. Moser looked like a smart player to target, given the team needed to dump Sergachev’s hefty contract, and he has been effective thus far on the top pairing with Victor Hedman.
Through four games, Tampa holds a +6 goal differential and owns a 51.61% expected goal share at even strength.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been confirmed as the Lightning’s starter in this matchup. He holds a +2.3 GSAx rating in the opening four games of the season and a .903 save %. Expect Jonas Johansson to make his season debut Tuesday as the Lightning head to New Jersey for a matchup against a high-powered Devils offence.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The glass-half-full viewpoint towards the Leafs’ 3-2-0 start would be pointing out that even the two losses were pretty strong performances altogether. With that said Saturday’s defeat to Igor Shesterkin felt eerily similar to a number of the team’s most important playoff losses in recent years, as they could not break through with a game-tying goal when they needed it most.
Still, there are plenty of positives to point to in the early going among the Leafs roster.
Matthew Knies looks like a legitimate top-liner and has been a key part of the Leafs’ top trio dominating the run of play. In 52.7 minutes together, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Knies have controlled play to a 61.5% expected goal share. That unit’s production should continue to rise in time, and they have done a great job of suppressing opposition chances.
Best Bets for Lightning vs Maple Leafs:
The Lightning have come out of the gates in great form and have received excellent play from all of their top stars. That includes Hedman and Vasilevskiy, who have both been far better in the early going than we saw last season. Still, A lack of depth down the roster was a problem last season, and I’m not convinced their opening four games have proven that that flaw won’t exist this season.
Tampa’s top line should prove to be one of the best in the league this season, but the Leafs have a top unit which should be comparably dominant. Toronto holds a deeper offensive core beyond that and arguably holds superior depth on the back end as well. Aside from some issues finishing, the Leafs game has looked quite convincing to start the Berube era.
At -150 or better, I see value in backing the Leafs to win this matchup.
This also looks like a good window to back the Leafs to win the division, which was a pick I liked entering the season.
As noted, I like Toronto’s chances tonight and their chances in the following two matchups versus Columbus and St. Louis. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Panthers lose tomorrow versus a Wild team that looks good before heading to MSG for an ECF rematch on Thursday. I’ll be backing Nashville to beat the Bruins tomorrow night, and then the Bruins host the Stars on Thursday.
Best Bet: Leafs Moneyline to -137 (SportsInteraction, Play to -145), Leafs to Win the Atlantic (+230, Play to +225)
