Congratulations, NHL coaches. As hot or cold as your seat might be, take solace in a simple accomplishment: You lasted longer than Mike Babcock.
Plenty of people expected Babcock to flame out as Columbus Blue Jackets head coach, but even his biggest detractors didn’t expect him to get canned before training camp. That’s not a hot seat situation; that’s riding a nuclear warhead directly into the sun.
Generally speaking, other NHL coaches’ seats aren’t quite boiling just yet as the 2023-24 season begins. That said, fortunes can change quickly in sports. Here are the bench bosses in the most danger entering the new campaign.
If you believe in even the illusion of merit in sports, it would already make sense if Smith felt some heat.
It’s already less than ideal that the Senators haven’t even sniffed the playoffs during Smith’s four seasons as head coach. When you realize that the Senators are spending a lot like contenders before they’ve won anything of note, it becomes clear that the heat is on Smith.
In the grand scheme of things, the Senators may look brilliant and proactive in handing out eight-year, $8M cap hits galore. Just look at how shrewd it was that the Edmonton Oilers locked down Leon Draisaitl for an $8.5M cap hit that initially caused some sticker shock.
All of that spending may pay off in the future, but if the Senators continue to be a step behind the playoff picture in the present, then Smith could see his job security melt away in a hurry.
The wonderful echoes of “Gloria” and that Stanley Cup run are feeling a bit faint in St. Louis.
Since Berube and the Blues broke the franchise’s championship curse, they’ve only won a single playoff game. Last season, they missed the playoffs by a mile.
Frankly, long-tenured Blues GM Doug Armstrong deserves the most blame for all of this. Maybe a coach other than Berube would get more out of the likes of Torey Krug and Justin Faulk, but it’s still difficult to believe that Armstrong has invested about $30M in a defense this dreadful.
The Blues either aren’t interested in blowing things up, or they simply aren’t able to. If Berube can’t find answers soon, it might be some other sorry soul’s job to try to figure things out.
Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh Penguins
With two Stanley Cup rings on his resume, Sullivan is the second-longest-tenured head coach in the NHL, trailing only Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper.
By any reasonable measure, Sullivan is a successful coach, but quality bench bosses get booted all the time.
Consider everything surrounding the Penguins in 2023-24, and it’s possible that Sullivan’s tenure is in doubt.
For one thing, the Penguins missed the playoffs last season and last won a playoff series in 2017-18.
While adding Erik Karlsson makes a ton of sense for Pittsburgh, it also adds another wild card to a fairly volatile mix. Karlsson, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang all carry serious risks of missing a ton of time due to injuries, and they’re also deep in the throes of battle with Father Time.
Even if the Penguins get relatively lucky with injuries, it’s fair to wonder how the pieces fit. After all, Karlsson and Letang are both aging right-handed defensemen with similar offensive strengths and defensive weaknesses.
Combine all of those factors with one of the most human elements in sports management: new GM Kyle Dubas didn’t hire Sullivan. Like an NFL coach preferring to hand-pick their franchise QB, NHL executives don’t always mix well with holdovers.
The Penguins are headed into a high-risk, potentially high-reward season, so don’t expect Sullivan to have the longest leash.
Let’s not forget that Devils fans were calling for Ruff’s head last season. Since then, Ruff laughed it off, which makes sense since he’s an experienced NHL head coach who’s seen it all.
What if the game’s passed him by, though?
The Devils are an ambitious team, and one driven by an empowered analytics staff. If this team stumbles under higher expectations, there could be a push for a more cutting-edge approach than a 63-year-old Ruff might provide.
It’s almost eerie that for all that seems to change for the Wild, the bigger-picture story feels the same.
Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy are both exciting young offensive stars, yet this team remains skewed toward smothering opponents (and themselves) with laser-focused defense. Year after year, the Wild get bounced out of the first round.
Of course, the blame shouldn’t fall on Evason alone, or even the most. He didn’t box the Wild into a corner with the $14M+ buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise.
Nonetheless, patience for one-and-done seasons isn’t infinite.
One could argue that with Boldy and Kaprizov, the Wild have the pieces to start opening things up more. It’s also possible that a fresh voice might be willing to give an intriguing prospect like Marco Rossi a longer look.
It feels strange to place a second-year coach here. You may argue that another second-year coach like Derek Lalonde may be in greater danger, as the Detroit Red Wings’ expectations will rise with their spending.
Despite that, several factors leave you to wonder if Bowness’ stay in Winnipeg could be a short one.
For one thing, this franchise is in rebuild denial, with the future of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele hanging in the balance. Considering how Bowness threw top players under the bus last season, it’s conceivable that he could be out even if one or more of Scheifele and Hellebuyck stick around. Given that Bowness is 68 years old, it’s reasonable to assume he was always viewed as a short-term solution anyway.
All of that said, the Jets are an organization that often lacks the stomach to wade through the turbulence of drastic changes. Then again, sometimes even the most lethargic decision-makers eventually have to deal with a hard deadline.
Pascal Vincent, Columbus Blue Jackets
Consider this an “out there” pick, but don’t dismiss how much of a ticking time bomb this Blue Jackets situation is.
With GM Jarmo Kekalainen and team president John Davidson on thermonuclear hot seats, it’s possible ownership could clean house entirely if the Blue Jackets’ meltdown extends beyond Babcock. It’s also possible that the two are shown the door in a more controlled way but an incoming GM wants to hire “their people.”
All of this would be monstrously unfair to Vincent, who probably deserved a crack at a head coaching job sooner. Still, this isn’t exactly a dirt-cheap team, and desperate people often don’t stop at one or two mistakes. Vincent’s job security could be part of the collateral damage of a whirlwind mess.
There’s also the possibility that Vincent struggles as an NHL head coach, much like Brad Larsen did before him (especially with a deeply flawed roster).
