The first month of the season is always a hectic time. Teams are gelling in different areas and at different speeds, and what’s happening in October will not be what’s happening in March or April. In other words, there’s a ton of movement in this week’s Power Rankings, with a new No. 1 and two new teams in the top five.
Last season, the five teams that finished atop the year-end Power Rankings – Panthers, Avalanche, Lightning, Leafs and Blues – started second, eighth, seventh, 11th and sixth, respectively, and only two teams – Avalanche and Hurricanes – stayed in the top spot for at least three consecutive weeks.
Here are your biggest surprises from each team after the first two weeks of the season.
(All fancy stats are 5v5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.)
1. Carolina Hurricanes (3-0-0, +8. CF% League Rank: 2, xGF% League Rank: 4)
Biggest surprise: Jesperi Kotkaniemi excelling as their No. 2 center. He’s averaging 13:45 per game at even strength, third-highest among the team’s forwards and he’s also their faceoff leader in both wins (28) and win percentage (66.7 percent).
2. New York Rangers (3-1-0, +5. CF%: 5, xGF%: 7)
Biggest surprise: Crushing analytical models that had the Rangers as a bottom-10 team last season. They’re no longer relying on Igor Shesterkin to win games, and that’s a good thing.
3. Calgary Flames (3-0-0, +4. CF%: 3, xGF%: 3)
Biggest surprise: Maybe not so surprising, but note that Darryl Sutter is really spreading out their playing time at even strength, rather than leaning on his top line like he did last season.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (2-0-1, +7. CF%: 10, xGF%: 2)
Biggest surprise: A healthy top six. At full strength with arguably the league’s best coach guiding them, the Pens are already looking like a Cup contender.
5. Colorado Avalanche (2-1-0, +4. CF%: 9, xGF%: 20)
Biggest surprise: None, really, because Artturi Lehkonen showed he was a great fit in the playoffs, and his strong play has continued. The question is what role he plays once Gabriel Landeskog returns.
6. Boston Bruins (3-1-0, +6. CF%: 11, xGF%: 5)
Biggest surprise: David Krejci still being such an effective center, though a lot of that can be attributed to playing with David Pastrnak, whose new cap number is probably going to start with 12.
7. Toronto Maple Leafs (2-2-0, -1. CF%: 4, xGF%: 8)
Biggest surprise: Even Matt Murray’s biggest supporters didn’t see him capitulate this early, but it’s been such a tough start to their season, including a bizarre hand pass ruling that took a game-tying goal away from them against the Coyotes.
8. Florida Panthers (2-1-0, +1. CF%: 18, xGF%: 24)
Biggest surprise: Running Brandon Montour concurrently with Aaron Ekblad on PP1, which is great for Montour but not necessarily having its desired effect, going just 2-for-15. The Panthers certainly look and feel very different from last season, but not in a good way.
9. Tampa Bay Lightning (1-3-0, -4. CF%: 6, xGF%: 14)
Biggest surprise: Their record, but we’ve seen this movie before where the hero struggles early on before finding their footing when it matters most. Still, perhaps the loss of quality depth due to the cap may have finally caught up to them.
10. St. Louis Blues (1-0-0, +3. CF%: 15, xGF%: 6)
Biggest surprise: Wait, the Blues are still in the league? Could’ve fooled me with only one game played, though it was interesting that Robert Thomas took seven more faceoffs than Ryan O’Reilly, including three more in the defensive zone.
11. Vegas Golden Knights (3-1-0, +4. CF%: 17, xGF%: 9)
Biggest surprise: Logan Thompson’s solid performances aside, it’s interesting how Vegas has turned into one of the more balanced teams in the league even though they go big-name hunting all the time. Only one forward, Michael Amadio, has yet to register a point for them, and that’s because he’s played only one game.
12. Dallas Stars (3-0-0, +10. CF%: 26, xGF%: 18)
Biggest surprise: It has to be Wyatt Johnston, the former CHL top scorer who won a job out of camp. Otherwise, this is – once again – looking like a team that goes only as far as Jake Oettinger can take them, and it’s pretty darn far.
13. Edmonton Oilers (1-2-0, -1. CF%: 19, xGF%: 16)
Biggest surprise: Maybe not so surprising, but Jay Woodcroft insists on playing Tyson Barrie over Evan Bouchard on PP1. It’s baffling, to be honest.
14. New York Islanders (2-1-0, +7. CF%: 7, xGF%: 12)
Biggest surprise: Their plus-7 goal differential, third-best in the league. But before we get too excited, it was a six-goal win against the Ducks and a three-goal win against the Sharks. They are more fun to watch under Lane Lambert, though.
15. Los Angeles Kings (3-2-0, -1. CF%: 23, xGF%: 21)
Biggest surprise: The Kings don’t look like they’ve taken the next step despite their winning record, falling behind in games and then having to claw back the hard way. This is still Anze Kopitar’s team, but worth noting that Gabe Vilardi has looked excellent despite a tough start to his pro career.
16. Nashville Predators (2-2-1, -3. CF%: 8, xGF%: 15)
Biggest surprise: A second line that can score?! The Preds usually either have one really good scoring line or no scoring line at all, so this is a little different. However, swept by Dallas and then blow a 3-1 lead? Not good.
17. Washington Capitals (2-2-0, even. CF%: 16, xGF%: 19)
Biggest surprise: Darcy Kuemper’s questionable play obviously, but it hasn’t been bad enough to be a worry. Yet.
18. Winnipeg Jets (1-1-0, even. CF%: 13, xGF%: 17)
Biggest surprise: Maybe they haven’t imploded yet? It’s still too early to say what kind of Jets team we’re getting, though it is interesting only three players have scored goals – Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and, uh, Sam Gagner – for them so far.
19. Detroit Red Wings (2-0-1, +5. CF%: 24, xGF%: 27)
Biggest surprise: Perhaps their effort level under Derek Lalonde after looking listless sometimes under Jeff Blashill. It was not Blashill’s fault, but it shows how a new voice and a swath of quality free agents can raise the level of play. Dylan Larkin’s backcheck – you know the one – was fantastic and also not the first time he’s done this.
20. Buffalo Sabres (2-1-0, +4. CF%: 25, xGF%: 29)
Biggest surprise: Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin on their top pairing and playing very well. Yours truly believes in this core.
21. Philadelphia Flyers (3-0-0, +5. CF%: 31, xGF%: 30)
Biggest surprise: That they’re one of four teams to remain unbeaten this season. John Tortorella gets results no matter where he goes and, true to his word, has given minutes to those who most deserve it. That includes Noah Cates, who scored the winner in a 3-2 upset against the Lightning. They’re turning heads and already deserve some respect.
22. Ottawa Senators (1-2-0, -2. CF%: 22, xGF%: 13)
Biggest surprise: How shaky they looked to start, only to beat the Bruins in a seven-goal outburst. It’s a little tough to gauge how good they’ll be with such a young roster, but they’re undeniably talented.
23. Montreal Canadiens (2-2-0, -3. CF%: 21, xGF%: 28)
Biggest surprise: Sean Monahan. Kirby Dach. Arber Xhekaj. Jordan Harris. Kaiden Guhle. Cole Caufield. Pick any name, and it seems like Martin St. Louis is getting the most out of him.
24. Columbus Blue Jackets (1-3-0, -8. CF%: 29, xGF%: 26)
Biggest surprise: Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson and Jack Roslovic have combined for one assist and a minus-7 rating. They should all be pushing this team forward.
25. Minnesota Wild (0-3-0, -8. CF%: 12, xGF%: 11)
Biggest surprise: I expected Marc-Andre Fleury to be bad, but not this bad. The Wild have allowed 20 goals in three games, albeit against tough opponents. There seems to be a changing of the guard, too, with Calen Addison playing top-four minutes while quarterbacking PP1.
26. Vancouver Canucks (0-3-1, -6. CF%: 14, xGF%: 22)
Biggest surprise: Not being ranked in the bottom three even though they’re off to a horrendous start blowing multi-goal leads in each of their four games. J.T. Miller has been one of their worst players, and Patrick Allvin was onto something when he wanted to stop all talk about the Canucks’ 106-point pace under Bruce Boudreau last season.
27. New Jersey Devils (1-2-0, -4. CF%: 1, xGF%: 1)
Biggest surprise: Just how bad their goaltending has been in spite of league-best possession metrics. (Yes, I did a double-take, too.) We knew that was a possibility, but five goals on 22 shots for Vitek Vanecek and a .864 save percentage for Mackenzie Blackwood? At this rate, it doesn’t matter if Jack Hughes scores 120 points.
28. Anaheim Ducks (1-3-0, -9. CF%: 30, xGF%: 31)
Biggest surprise: Last season, the Ducks couldn’t score or defend. This season, they can score but not defend. Improvement!
29. Seattle Kraken (1-2-1, -5. CF%: 20, xGF%: 10)
Biggest surprise: That they still don’t know their identity? If you’re competitive and going for the playoffs, you don’t play Shane Wright six minutes a night. If you’re still developing and fostering a young core, you also don’t play Shane Wright six minutes a night. Either way, they’ve gotta send him back to juniors.
30. Chicago Blackhawks (1-2-0, -1. CF%: 28, xGF%: 25)
Biggest surprise: They haven’t unravelled as quickly as everyone expected, though the signs are already there.
31. Arizona Coyotes (1-2-0, -5. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)
Biggest surprise: The big Nick Ritchie revenge game, of course. It’s like the only way the Coyotes can beat anybody is with karma. Good thing for the Leafs they only visit once a year.
32. San Jose Sharks (0-5-0, -11. CF%: 27, xGF%: 23)
Biggest surprise: That this team has bottomed out? Has it finally happened? Connor Bedard might look good in teal.
