With Monday’s 5 pm deadline to submit their final opening roster, the Ottawa Senators have several important decisions to make to finalize their group.
This afternoon’s 2 pm deadline to put players on waivers added some intrigue and insight into how the Senators’ roster could shake out. The communications team officially announced today that forwards Jan Jenik and Adam Gaudette were placed on waivers.
These decisions are interesting because the widely held belief is that these two players played their way onto the Senators’ opening day roster. In five preseason games, Gaudette led the Senators in goals with four. His five points were tied for the second-highest amount behind Carter Yakemchuk’s seven.
Looking at the Senators’ five-on-five shot and goal-based metrics on NaturalStatTrick, when Gaudette was on the ice, the team scored 75 percent of the goals (GF%) and generated 51 percent of the shots (CF%). Based on the data, the Senators outperformed the expected goals for (39.9 xGF%) when Gaudette was on the ice. The centre also won 60 percent of his draws. He also possesses an excellent shot that could be featured on the second power play unit, distinguishing him from the alternatives vying for a fourth line role.
Jenik had an excellent first game against Toronto by recording one goal and four points in his debut. The production instantly fuelled Brandon Bochenski comparisons for his unanticipated preseason production, but Jenik’s production fell off after that. Those were his only points in his six preseason appearances. Although his offence waned, Jenik exhibited agitating tendencies and an ability to get under the opposition’s skin.
In terms of the underlying metrics via NaturalStatTrick, the Senators generated 46.5 percent of the shots (CF%), 66.7 percent of the goals (GF%), and 51.0 percent of the goals (xGF%). One of the blemishes of Jenik’s candidacy for the fourth line centre role was that he only won 37.5 percent of his faceoffs during the preseason.
If both players clear waivers, the player can be recalled and carried on the roster for 10 games or 30 days, after which he will need waivers again to be returned to the minors. These placements could be the organization taking advantage of the congestion of players put on waivers today. Getting these players through would afford the organization more flexibility to cycle players between the NHL and AHL lineups for the next month.
If Jenik and Gaudette are destined for Belleville, they made good representations of themselves in camp and remain one phone call away. Their prospective demotions would signal that the two Zacks – Opstachuk and MacEwen – have made the opening roster. MacEwen’s addition to the roster would not be surprising. He played 30 games for the Senators last season and is a well-liked teammate. His willingness to drop the mitts is an appreciated characteristic that endears him to his coaches and teammates.
The presence of Ostapchuk is a surprise for me. Listed at 6’4″ and 206 lbs, he has a large body that certainly fits the organization’s philosophy of adding more size to the bottom of the roster.
In four preseason games, Ostapchuk contributed a goal, an assist and four shots on goal while averaging 15:16 of ice time per game per NaturalStatTrick – which interestingly ranks ahead of the 14:31 and 12:08 that Gaudette and Jenik averaged, respectively. It is also worth noting that Ostapchuk finished third in total shorthanded ice time on the team during the preseason, so the coaching staff may view him as an important part of the penalty kill.
It is a small sample size of data, and the preseason is riddled with questions about roster quality and the quality of competition. Still, it is worth mentioning that Ostapchuk had some of the worst shot and goal-based metrics for the Senators during the preseason. When Ostapchuk was on the ice, the team generated 34.8 percent of the shots (CF%) and 34.7 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Drafted by the Senators in the second round of the 2021 NHL Draft, Ostapchuk does have pedigree. The same pedigree I believed would work against him in making this roster. With just one professional season under his belt, I assumed the Senators would return the waiver-exempt Ostapchuk to Belleville to continue his development.
He had an impressive rookie season in the AHL, tallying 17 goals and 28 points in 69 games. And, with the Senators’ top three lines looking decent on paper, Ostapchuk’s minutes may be limited on the fourth line. It may raise questions about what is best for his development moving forward.
Should the Senators send Jenik and Gaudette to Belleville and keep Ostapchuk and MacEwen as their 12th and 13th forwards, the organization will have the flexibility to carry eight defencemen on the roster. One of those defencemen should be the well-regarded Carter Yakemchuk.
I have already exhausted why the seventh overall pick from the 2024 NHL Draft warrants an extended opportunity to show he can play at the NHL level, but today’s roster news is promising.
The bar to be better than the alternatives defensively is not exceptionally high, but with his ability to move and shoot the puck, there is a chance he can help this hockey club win games. They can give Yakemchuk a window upwards of nine games before management decides whether to return him to junior. Should he play in a tenth game, the organization will burn the first year of his entry-level contract.
Considering their playoff aspirations and the talent of the teams projected to finish in front of them, the Senators’ margins are small. If the promising young player represents an upgrade on the players around him, the Senators owe it to themselves to find out.
