What does a successful 3rd-year season look like for Juraj Slafkovsky?

As part of The Leafs Nation’s Atlantic Division preview series, the TLN staff are examining the most compelling storylines and angles from each team. Here is our deep dive on the Montreal Canadiens and below is the second part of the Canadiens preview: 

Juraj Slafkovsky’s career has always been discussed with qualifiers affixed and it may be unfair to the 20-year-old Montreal Canadiens forward. During the lead-up to the 2022 NHL Draft, Slafkovsky rose through the rankings and it was considered a shock when the Canadiens elected to select the burgeoning power forward over Shane Wright, who went fourth overall to the Seattle Kraken. Since establishing himself in the league, Slafkovsky’s career has rarely been viewed through the prism of his current on-ice impact but rather how he compares unfavourably with previous first overall picks, while other actors — namely Canadiens fans — have placed overzealous expectations on him, expecting him to become the second coming of Evgeni Malkin.

We’re aiming to go beyond projection when trying to answer this simple question: what does a successful third-year season look like for Juraj Slafkovsky?

To be clear, this blog isn’t a referendum on the Canadiens opting to select Slafkovsky. He’s the most productive member of the 2022 class thus far, leading the cohort with 60 points and 124 games played. It appears likely that Utah Hockey Club’s Logan Cooley could surpass him as the best player in the class, but the Canadiens have made it clear from the outset that Slafkovsky would get every opportunity to contribute. It takes time to acclimate to the speed and rigours of an 82-game schedule and now entering his third NHL season, this is where he needs to take a leap.

“I was more confident, because I knew what people expected from me,” Slafkovsky told Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman in August.

Alex Newhook tucks home Slafkovsky’s beautiful pass for his first goal with Montreal!#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/9Y978p6VO9

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) October 12, 2023

Slafkovsky posted 33 points at 5-on-5 while playing in all 82 games — tied with Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies, who played in 80 games and identical to Minnesota Wild forward Marco Rossi, who also played in every game last season. An easy scan of Slafkovsky’s individual numbers suggests that he needs to drive the net more often and become more confident in rush scenarios. He has the frame to dominate smaller defenders but generates the majority of his offense when the play is already established in the offensive third. He’s not particularly adept at drawing penalties just yet but his tantalizing combination of speed, power and puck skills suggests this is a matter of confidence, rather than inability. Slafkovsky is a talented playmaker off the rush, as we witnessed on opening night last season, and here’s another example from a February game against the Anaheim Ducks.

Nick Suzuki finishes off Slafkovsky’s perfect setup, doubling Montreal’s lead to 2!#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/ZiOYuTazr7

— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) February 14, 2024

Montreal controlled just under 50 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Slafkovsky was on the ice, while he sported an even goal differential. League-average results against top competition is a good start, but now it’s imperative that he continues to elevate his offensive game entering his third-year campaign. Slafkovsky signed an eight-year extension worth $60.6 million on July 1, an agreeable deal for both parties that will likely age well for the Canadiens and the length and term of the pact now demands further production from a player who should lead the team in scoring for the foreseeable future.

“You can’t even compare the first and second year,” Slafkovsky said in August to Derek van Diest of NHL.com. “If I compare my 39 games from my first year to last year it was like I was a different player. My last year in Finland, my first year in Montreal, and my second year in Montreal, it was like I was three different players.”

What can we expect from Slafkovsky this year, relative to former first-overall picks? Slafkovsky ought to be rewarded in these exercises for making it to the NHL directly after his draft year. Below, we’ve compiled all the forwards who went first overall that entered the NHL directly after their draft year from 2007-08 onwards and their year-over-year point production from their second year to third year.

Growth in the NHL, as in life, is often non-linear but there’s at least a clear precedent and imperative to improve. Alexis Lafreniere may be the closest proximal example for Slafkovsky, as the New York Rangers’ winger was preemptively written off by some as a ‘bust’ before breaking out as a dynamic scoring threat for the President’s Trophy winner. Some players like Steven Stamkos and Nathan MacKinnon were so preternaturally talented and productive as rookies that their third-year campaigns appear as relative slumps in surefire Hall of Fame careers. And while this is just simple math, a 15-point improvement from Slafkovsky, when considering the totality of his skill set, his youth and the fact that he’s at least 4-6 years away from his prime would catapult him on the cusp of the NHL’s elite power forwards. This is a reasonable ask!

Slafkovsky’s game has always been subject to projection and comparative analysis, rather than an appreciation for his game in the moment. If the Canadiens are to arrive a year ahead of schedule, Slafkovsky will need to take another leap and it’s well within reason to suggest we should expect some major growth, as he grows more confident asserting himself in the NHL.

All stats from NHL.com, HockeyDB and Natural Stat Trick. 

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