The Maple Leafs presently sit with a 3-1-0 record, which is pretty darn good. They sit at the top of the Atlantic Division. Surely this means things are going well. It’s wild because if just one of those games went another way the tone would incredibly different we’d be talking about how they’ve underperformed so far. If they lose tonight against the Rangers, the 3-2-0 record is less exciting and just more where they’ve always been in the regular season. If they win, well, I guess the good times keep going and the discussion needs to shift to if the Maple Leafs will ever lose again.
Anyway…the point is, wins are always good and there does seems to be signs that the Leafs are responding to Craig Berube’s coaching, and there’s nothing wrong with enjoying that, but at the same time, if the pendulum swings the other way, it’s also too early to start panicking. It will still take some time to know what the Leafs really are this season.
Here are some other stray thoughts.
Don’t rush to re-sign Lorentz
The NHL/NHLPA collective bargaining agreement is presently a good friend of Brad Treliving and could potentially be saving him from making a bad decision.
The Leafs are already rumoured to be quite smitten with Steven Lorentz and would like to re-sign him, but have to wait until the new year to get the deal done.
That little bit of leeway buys Toronto some time to recognize that initial excitement around their fourth liner could wear off or at least gives the Maple Leafs a bit more time to look at his track record more honestly.
Lorentz has been a trustworthy option for Craig Berube and Berube would be far from the first coach to fall in love with the simple, hardworking game of a fourth liner that is built on effort, finished checks, and genuine desire to do what it takes to remain part of the roster. There is nothing wrong with having players like that. The problem is when organizations overcommit to players like that.
David Kampf is certainly an example of that. Kampf was a favourite of Sheldon Keefe and even as his performance declined, he somehow managed to receive a multi-year contract with a raise (and a limited no trade clause). All of this while a cheaper (and arguably better) option in Pontus Holmberg was waiting to step into the fourth line role.
We’ve already seen Craig Berube behave in a similar fashion with keeping Lorentz in the lineup over Bobby McMann on opening night, and while Berube may have wanted to reward Lorentz’ hard work during training camp, there are few situations where it seems reasonable to keep Lorentz in the lineup over McMann, especially given McMann’s abilities to do a lot of the things that Lorentz does, only better.
It’s far from something that needs to be overreacted to and if Lorentz is showing that he is a fit for Craig Berube and the Leafs bringing him back next season would obviously make sense, but there are certainly lessons to be learned from overvaluing fourth line forwards like Lorentz, Kampf, and if we’re going to dust off a name from the past, Jay McClement. Hard hockey catches up to them, they are not options that can be readily moved up the lineup, and paying for penalty killers is a kiss of death.
There’s also something to be said for the always waiting supply of AHLers ready to step into that role and annual chance to consider upgrades in free agency.
In short, Lorentz is good, but Lorentz is good as a $775k player on a one-year contract. If he’s coming back it should be at the same rate and it will be interesting to see how Brad Treliving approaches this.
Something will have to give (eventually, but don’t rush it)
This week Timothy Liljegren found his way into the Leafs lineup and the world didn’t come to an end. That might be stating the obvious because Liljegren is actually a pretty decent defenceman, even if the Leafs are now on their second coach that doesn’t really see him as a fit.
Keeping Liljegren around for as long as possible makes good sense, from a depth perspective, but also from the perspective that the more that Craig Berube sees of Liljegren in the season, the more likely it is that he’ll stand out as someone who should be an every game player for him.
The catch is something has to give from a salary cap perspective. At some point Calle Jarnkrok, Connor Dewar, and most important to the Liljegren situation, Jani Hakanpaa, will all be ready to come off the long term injury reserve. From both a roster space and cap space perspective, some decisions are going to need to be made and they won’t be easy ones.
Understandably, Brad Treliving and company are likely waiting to see how long they can extend their situation of retaining promising depth. Each game brings the potential for a new injury and sacrificing depth prematurely when the reality of a physical 82 game season dictates that LTIR will be used again is something worth testing. The Leafs will have until November before activating the LTIR players is even an option, so as fun as it is to speculate about the possibility of trades, the Maple Leafs have seven more games before it becomes a necessity, and somehow, they’d have to go seven games injury free to have their hand forced.
It is also too early to know whether keeping Nick Robertson, Max Pacioretty, or Conor Timmins is more beneficial for the Leafs than Liljegren. There is still the unknown of what Hakanpaa, Jarnkrok, and Dewar will bring to the Leafs, and in addition to Liljegren, there are other roster moves like Kampf and Reaves that could be considered as well.
As long as the Leafs are winning, maintaining their current organizational depth seems like the better alternative to exploring trades and unless a desperate team is approaching the Leafs with a sweetheart of deal, enjoying their current situation into November seems like the smartest course of action.
