Every now and then, there’s a heated debate about who should be the top pick of an NHL draft. That isn’t the case this year, as Connor Bedard is a lock to go first overall to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Drama lovers need not worry, though. While the No. 1 pick debate is non-existent, there are plenty of other fascinating questions bubbling around the 2023 NHL Draft, which takes place on Wednesday and Thursday.
Will there be more big trades involving players already in the NHL?
It sure seems like it. There’s already been plenty of action leading up to the draft, with the Kings landing Pierre-Luc Dubois in a blockbuster, the Flames shipping Tyler Toffoli to New Jersey, and the Blackhawks acquiring Taylor Hall, just to name a few. If the activity continues, this could be one of the busiest NHL drafts in ages.
When big trades do happen around draft time, they can sometimes be whoppers that take attention away from the picks themselves (particularly in the second round and beyond).
Who goes second, third, fourth?
University of Michigan forward Adam Fantilli emerged as the most likely No. 2 overall pick, something you’ll notice if you comb through most mock drafts and prospect rankings.
There’s room for intrigue, however.
One big wild card is Russian prospect Matvei Michkov, who will be discussed in greater detail shortly. For this section, note how TSN’s Craig Button surmised that Anaheim Ducks GM Pat Verbeek isn’t afraid to buck conventions, thus making it plausible that Michkov could leap to the second choice over Fantilli.
That consensus-defying nature may also prompt the Ducks to roll with Leo Carlsson or even Will Smith at No. 2 overall.
Much of the hype around the 2023 NHL Draft revolves around Bedard and a few other high-end prospects. Just how many special players there are may vary depending upon the teams you ask. Either way, after Bedard goes first, it’s “grab your popcorn” time.
Bonus points if, say, the win-now Blue Jackets boldly traded the third-overall pick for either an immediate solution or for a bulk of picks. It feels more likely that a team might trade up closer to the 10-15 range, but there could be some real fireworks in the first round.
How will the Matvei Michkov mystery unfold?
By most peoples’ measures, Michkov going second overall would be a bit steep. Since at least 2021, scouts and hockey executives grappled with Michkov’s special talent against factors that include a KHL contract that runs through 2025-26. However you want to label the actions of a mercenary group, recent occurrences only highlight uncertainty surrounding how global events may affect the availability and development of Russian hockey prospects.
For all we know, the latest iteration of “The Russian Factor” might lead to bigger swings in positioning for prospects such as Daniil But and Dmitri Simashev. Still, those players aren’t spoken about in the same hushed tones as Michkov, and a wide range of fans are dreaming about a potential star falling to a team like the Capitals (eighth overall) or even further.
Really, though, Michkov is fascinating for that mix of unknown availability and high-end comparisons ranging from Alex Ovechkin to Nikita Kucherov or “just” Vladimir Tarasenko.
Michkov lingers as a litmus test for how you view team building in any number of ways. Do you cite the mixed bag of Kirill Kaprizov: a superstar hyper-steal, but one who didn’t arrive for the GM who drafted him with the Wild? Perhaps you instead realize that plenty of prospects don’t jump straight to the NHL, and that some high picks who arrived right away might have been better served waiting a few years instead.
Will defensemen be overvalued?
Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis put it bluntly: this isn’t the year where you should “reach” for a defenseman in the first round.
That doesn’t mean blueliners shouldn’t go in the top 32. However, a team with less vision might pick the best defenseman available because of a perceived shallow pipeline, leaving a higher-end forward on the board instead. The 2023 NHL Draft ranks as one of those years where such decisions could look shaky in the moment, and embarrassing in retrospect.
Will size matter too much?
Along with reaching for defensemen, another draft trope is teams obsessing about size, whether that means reaching too far for future role players (who are big) or passing on impact players because they might not be able to ride the most extreme roller coasters.
Recall extreme examples like Martin St. Louis, who won two scoring titles, a Hart Trophy and became a Hall of Famer after going undrafted. We’re also littered with more recent history, such as Alex DeBrincat falling out of the first round because of his size. The Lightning dined off of other scouting departments undervaluing undersized skill.
Could that happen again in 2023?
Depending upon whom you ask, Zach Benson could get selected near the top five or closer to the middle of the first round. While Benson may be the most prominent Cole Caufield type in this year’s draft, there are other undersized prospects to watch, from Gavin Brindley to Jayden Perron and Andrew Cristall. (Of course, both Bedard and Michkov lean toward the smaller side, too.)
You can even wonder if there could be another Juuse Saros/Devon Levi-type outlier in net, as Trey Augustine may be disregarded altogether for “just” being measured in the 6-foot-1 range.
How long will it take for a team to draft a goalie?
Speaking of netminders, the consensus is that there may not be a goalie who goes in the first round. Actually, there are some who wonder if a netminder may only get their name called late in the second.
That’s nothing to sweat, really. While an Andrei Vasilevskiy comes along every now and then, plenty of elite goalies were selected outside of the top 32. For example, Connor Hellebuyck was a fifth-rounder and Igor Shesterkin and Saros were fourth-rounders.
Executives, scouts and pundits debate Michael Hrabal and Adam Gajan among the premier picks, although there’s also been room for the likes of Augustine and Carson Bjarnason. Of course, the position is volatile even for goalies with hefty NHL resumes, so predicting how a teenage netminder will develop is that much more difficult. That said, if you get one or more of those choices right, you could line up precious years of elite goaltending at team-friendly rates.
Frankly, teams may be wise to take plenty of shots at goalie prospects outside the first round over the years, particularly if they’re rebuilding franchises with a glut of picks. Perhaps the 2023 NHL Draft will produce another hidden gem in net.
