The Wild’s overtime loss against the Philadelphia Flyers on Jan. 12 marked the halfway point of their season, and it was a fitting representation of where the team is at. With 41 games played, the Wild, coming off back-to-back seasons where they surpassed the 100-point mark, have collected a meager 39 points. That places them fourth last in the Western Conference, above only the teams that are actively rebuilding in the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, and San Jose Sharks. With the losses piling up on the backs of injured stars like Kirill Kaprizov, Filip Gustavsson, and Jared Spurgeon, it may be time to accept that they are not making the playoffs this season.
Their incredibly slow start was countered with a winning streak once John Hynes came in as the new head coach, but the recent rash of injuries to their top players seems to have completely undone both their work in the standings and the team’s mentality. They are extremely susceptible to falling apart late in games, and when you are chasing the wild card position from as far back as they currently are, that is just not a recipe for success. The worst-case scenario for the Wild right now is to make another run at the playoffs and end up missing. Accept being bad for once. It is okay.
Wild Hurting Themselves By Continuing to Push
Throughout their entire history, the Minnesota Wild have collected a reputation for being middle of the pack in basically everything. They are never the best team, yet they are never the worst either, which in a lot of cases can be a compliment, but sometimes, in the current era of the NHL, you just need to be bad if you want to get ahead. The talent that you can collect at the top of an NHL draft is extraordinary, but Wild fans wouldn’t know because they’ve never drafted that high.
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In the last decade, the Wild have only drafted in the top ten once, and that was ninth overall pick Marco Rossi in 2020. He is now turning into a core piece for them. They came close to another top ten in 2019 when they had the 12th overall pick, with which they grabbed Matt Boldy, who is also now a core piece of the Wild. The best teams are built around those players that you get at the front of the NHL draft, and the Wild just seem determined to never allow themselves to be bad enough to get there. The result is continued early playoff exits.
Ridiculous Pace Required to Make Playoffs
Based on the last three seasons, the lowest number of points a team had and still made it into the playoffs was 90 (this is being generous this season). The Wild, currently sitting at 39 points and a .476 points percentage, would, therefore, need to collect 51 points over the next 41 games to even be in the battle for the final wild-card spot. That equates to a .622 points percentage over the remainder of the season, and it just so happens to be exactly what the Carolina Hurricanes managed to produce over the first half of their season. The Wild would, therefore, need to have a better second half of their season than the Hurricanes, who are second in the Metropolitan Division, did in the first half of their season.
Let’s also look at it from another lens of someone who is not into what the math says or wants a more traditional view of what is required. The Wild are not going to end up passing any of the top three teams in the Central Division. That trio is very strong this season. That leaves two wildcard spots. The Pacific Division has four very strong teams. Whichever team ends up fourth in that division will hold the first wildcard spot (likely the Los Angeles Kings or Vegas Golden Knights). That leaves a single wild card spot for the Wild and five other teams to duke it out over. It is almost impossible that the Wild manage to overcome the Nashville Predators (+8 pts), Seattle Kraken (+6 pts), St. Louis Blues (+4 pts), Calgary Flames (+4 pts), and Arizona Coyotes (+3 pts). Of course, they can pass a few of those teams, but the result is just a lower pick on draft day.
Worth It in the Long Run
No one likes to watch their favorite team lose over and over again. It is painful and hurts your soul in a way only your favorite sports team can, but sometimes there is just nothing that can be done to prevent it. Obviously, if they decide the end goal of this season is to collect a higher draft pick, it is not as easy as deciding to just be bad, the players are not going to accept that fate and they shouldn’t. It is a perfect chance to get some of the younger players involved and see where they currently sit. It would provide a better view of what gaps will need to be filled moving forward.
They can stop pushing every injured player’s recovery to try and get them back into service at the first opportunity. Why bother getting a veteran player back on the roster just for them to go back on injured reserve three games later? Let some younger players fill those roles and give them a taste of NHL action so they get a better sense of what they need to do to prepare themselves.
They can also shop around everyone who isn’t foolishly locked into a deal with complete trade protection. The goal is not to completely strip down the roster but just to make a few extra spaces for guys like Adam Beckman, Sammy Walker, or even Caedan Bankier, who is currently playing well with the Iowa Wild. Really give those players a long, hard look in the NHL and decide if they are part of the future.
As it currently sits, the Wild would have the sixth overall draft pick and a 7.5% chance at the number one overall pick. The addition of another young player from the top of the draft, like Marco Rossi or Matt Boldy, could be the key to securing a very competitive team for many seasons to come. Even a selection in the sixth overall area can be an elite young talent, as, in recent years, teams have used that pick to add players like Jamie Drysdale (2020), Moritz Seider (2019), and Matthew Tkachuk (2016).
Still A Lot of Hockey Left to Play
With all the doom and gloom talk about their season basically being over, it’s worth remembering that there is still over a season left to play. Anything can happen in the NHL as players get hot, momentum can swing towards a team, and sometimes the most injured roster can provide the most upsetting victories. Great things could happen, but the Wild do not just need to hold on to a playoff spot. They need to muscle their way past a bunch of other teams and force their way into one. It may be time to accept that this season just might not go their way.
