Finding value in the free-agent market is not easy for NHL GMs as their task is to outbid 31 other teams for players while keeping their spending at a level that doesn’t put them in salary cap hell.
They also need to avoid sinking resources into players who thrived in a different setting, but might not produce the same way with their team. To add to the degree of difficulty, most of the guys available are either experiencing or nearing physical decline.
Almost every free agent has some kind of red flag that GMs are forced to accept or ignore if they want to bring them aboard. Some players have more worrying indicators than others, though.
Here’s a summary of the top unrestricted free agents with notable red flags GMs will have to consider before handing them significant contracts:
1. Michael Bunting
Age on October 1, 2023: 28
Position: LW
2022-23 team: Toronto Maple Leafs
2022-23 stats: 82 GP, 23 G, 26 A, 49 P, 51.9% CF
What are the red flags?: Bunting’s impressive production has primarily come alongside elite offensive players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.
His reputation for embellishment might also limit his ability to draw penalties in the years to come. He’s also shown himself to be a loose cannon at times, as illustrated by his hit on Erik Černák in the opening game of the playoffs.
Why might they be ignored?: Bunting is a ways away from his 30th birthday and he’s coming off two straight 23-goal seasons. That combination of youth and scoring ability won’t be easy to find in an unimpressive free-agent market.
Some teams will see his extra-curricular antics as a reason to avoid him, but others may interpret them as Bunting being a gamer and think they can channel his aggression in a more productive direction. His ability to draw penalties will bring tangible value as long as it lasts.
Age on October 1, 2023: 34
Position: RW
2022-23 team(s): Chicago Blackhawks, New York Rangers
2022-23 stats: 73 GP, 21 G, 36 A, 57 P, 42.6% CF
What are the red flags?: Kane recently underwent hip surgery, he’s approaching his 35th birthday, and his 2022-23 season was forgettable by his standards.
The theory that he was dogging it with the lowly Blackhawks before being traded to the Rangers was hurt by the fact he hardly dominated in New York with 18 points in 26 games. There are plenty of question marks with Kane and there are far cheaper free-agent options who offer far more certainty.
Why might they be ignored?: For all the doubts swirling around him, Kane is still one of the most skilled players of his generation and a year removed from a 92-point campaign.
A team will convince itself that it can reinvigorate the aging superstar, and that club might even be right.
Age on October 1, 2023: 34
Position: LW
2022-23 team: Tampa Bay Lightning
2022-23 stats: 82 GP, 27 G, 37 A, 64 P, 50.7% CF
What are the red flags?: Killorn’s age is a worry, as is the fact he’s spent his entire career in Tampa Bay, generally surrounded by solid talent. He’s also coming off a season where his goal total was juiced by a lofty shooting percentage (18.9%).
He’s posted high shooting percentages before, but his career number of 12.5% suggests there’s some regression coming his way. Killorn is a durable and capable of contributing in a variety of ways, but it’s tough to envision him leaving the Lightning and replicating his success elsewhere.
Why might they be ignored?: No free agent produced a higher point total last season and the fact Killorn has missed just four games since 2015-16 is remarkable.
He has championship pedigree from his Tampa Bay tenure and outside of an ice-cold run in 2021-22 he’s consistently produced in the playoffs.
Age on October 1, 2023: 28
Position: C/LW
2022-23 team: Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars
2022-23 stats: 82 GP, 20 G, 36 A, 56 P, 45.0% CF
What are the red flags?: Between 2019-20 and 2021-22 Domi produced just 107 points and played for three different teams. Much of his 2022-23 production came in an outsized role with a brutal Chicago Blackhawks squad and he’s unlikely to skate 18:18 per night and play center wherever he signs. He could also lose power-play time, which is an issue considering he scored 40% of his goals with the man advantage last season.
Domi has never been a defensive wiz, hasn’t lasted more than 222 games in a single place in his eight-year career and his solid playoff run with the Dallas Stars in 2022-23 is the only notable bullet point on his postseason resume.
Why might they be ignored?: Domi is relatively young, possesses some offensive gifts and can slide between different roles within a lineup. He has two 20-goal seasons under his belt and he’s undoubtedly a crafty passer.
The 2013 12th-overall pick also brings a dose of toughness and there will be GMs drawn to his willingness to mix it up when the occasion calls for it.
Age on October 1, 2023: 29
Position: G
2022-23 team(s): Columbus Blue Jackets, Los Angeles Kings
2022-23 stats: 34 GP, 2.87 GAA, .914 SV%, +11.5 GSAA
What are the red flags?: The Finn’s career numbers are a pretty significant red flag.
Korpisalo’s -37.9 GSAA over 221 NHL games is far from impressive and he’s posted a save percentage under .900 in four different seasons.
Why might they be ignored?: Korpisalo looked really good last season carrying the biggest workload of his career.
He has plenty of NHL experience, but is still under the age of 30 — and his career postseason save percentage of .922 suggests he doesn’t fold in the playoffs.
Age on October 1, 2023: 33
Position: RD
2022-23 team(s): Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs
2022-23 stats: 70 GP, 4 G, 18 A, 22 P, 45.2% CF
What are the red flags?: Schenn played 38 or fewer games in each of the three seasons prior to 2022-23 and came in and out of the Lightning lineup as needed before landing a full-time gig with the Canucks last year.
His skating ability is questionable and although he gave the Maple Leafs some quality minutes in the playoffs, it’s unclear if he can still sustain a high level of play over the course of an 82-game campaign.
Why might they be ignored?: Schenn is dripping with intangibles as a 15-year veteran who has won multiple Stanley Cups and made playoff starts for four different teams. He’s a right-shot defenseman with size and his 16.66 hits/60 led all blueliners last season.
The 33-year-old has value, but he’s the type of player that teams are likely to overpay for as they fixate on his notable strengths instead of evaluating the whole package.
Age on October 1, 2023: 27
Position: G
2022-23 team: Vegas Golden Knights
2022-23 stats: 27 GP, 2.45 GAA, .915 SV%, +8.0 GSAA
What are the red flags?: Hill has started just 88 regular-season games in his career, without topping 25 in a single season.
It’s fair to say that he hasn’t played enough for it to be clear what he can do over a bigger sample. That’s scary considering goaltender performance is extremely difficult to project even for guys with extensive track records. It’s likely that signing Hill is a buy-high move.
Why might they be ignored?: Hill is coming of a playoff run that saw him post a stellar .932 save percentage and the Vegas Golden Knights would not have won the Stanley Cup without his contributions.
While his career numbers come from a small sample, he has solid +4.5 GSAA and .910 save percentage marks to his name. Considering his age, it’s not hard to envision him as a long-term solution between the pipes.
Age on October 1, 2023: 28
Position: LW
2022-23 team: Detroit Red Wings, Boston Bruins
2022-23 stats: 50 GP, 8 G, 22 A, 30 P, 52.5% CF
What are the red flags?: Although Bertuzzi is one of the very best players available, it’s worth remembering that he scored eight goals in the 2022-23 regular season and has produced 50-plus points once in his seven-year NHL career.
Whoever signs Bertuzzi will be getting an important contributor in his prime, but the combination of a soft free-agent market and his stellar playoff performance with the Bruins makes a significant overpay seem likely. He also has some of the nastiness that could add a little boost to his paycheque but has on-ice utility that’s impossible to quantify.
Why might they be ignored?: Big, tough, goal-scoring forwards who aren’t over the hill get paid.
Some GMs may value Bertuzzi more than others, but there is absolutely no doubt that he’s cashing in this summer even if he’s only performed at a star level in one year of his career.
Age on October 1, 2023: 28
Position: C
2022-23 team: Colorado Avalanche
2022-23 stats: 82 GP, 17 G, 35 A, 52 P, 51.3% CF
What are the red flags?: Compher has never been the guy he was in 2022-23 before. That’s partly because he was never asked to be, but he entered the season with a career-high of 33 points.
While he blew away that total last season, his massive ice time average (20:32) played a huge role and his points/60 (1.9) weren’t significantly above his previous career-high (1.7). Compher’s possession metrics have always been on the dubious side despite playing for quality Avalanche teams.
Why might they be ignored?: It’s not easy to find a free agent under 30 who can handle a second-line center role.
Compher is no star, but he provided proof of concept for his ability to play a critical role for a team with championship aspirations in 2022-23. Not only can he fill a top-six spot, he’s also a contributor on both special teams.
10. Antti Raanta
Age on October 1, 2023: 34
Position: G
2022-23 team: Carolina Hurricanes
2022-23 stats: 27 GP, 2.20 GAA, .910 SV%, +3.7 GSAA
What are the red flags?: Raanta has been kicking around the NHL for 10 years now and he’s only topped 30 games played in a season once. The Hurricanes preferred Frederik Andersen over him during his time in Carolina even when his numbers were stronger.
Although Raanta’s career save percentage of .918 is excellent, he’s sitting at a less enticing .910 over the last three years. Playing goaltender for the defensively-responsible Hurricanes could make his recent numbers hard to trust. Raanta is on the smaller side (6-feet, 195 pounds), which makes him more reliant on movement skills than most to succeed, and he’s approaching his mid-30s.
Why might they be ignored?: The career track record is there and in a league where goaltending inconsistency drivers teams insane Raanta is an appealing option. He hasn’t posted a GSAA below -1.4 since a rough rookie season, and he’s been in the black according to that metric in seven of the last nine campaigns.
The floor appears to be there for Raanta, but if his work in Carolina is a mirage the bottom could fall out quickly.
