The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.
Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs will eventually need to decide what to do about Alex Steeves.
At 24 years old, he’s barely a prospect at this point, and his status here was a contentious topic around the TLN brass. He’s had three stints in the NHL, with just one assist in seven games since turning pro in 2021-22.
But in the AHL, nobody has produced more than Steeves’ 69 goals (nice) and 154 points in 188 games with the Marlies. Granted, most of the top AHLers don’t last that long, but he’s already the fifth all-time leading scorer in Marlies history and just 15 points away from overtaking Kris Newbury for first.
If Steeves had his way, he’d stay in his current spot. But the currently unsigned winger has to prove he’s good enough to establish himself as a full-time NHLer. By AHL standards, Steeves is hard to miss out there. He has pushed his offensive numbers up in each of his three pro years after leaving the University of Notre Dame after his junior season as an unsigned free agent.
Like Jacob Quillan this year, there’s always a reason to be hesitant about putting high expectations on guys coming out of the NCAA because there’s usually a good reason why they were never drafted. But with Steeves, his ability to drive the play and produce at 5-on-5 and on the power play made him a dangerous threat every time he hit the ice. Whenever the Marlies have needed a momentum-changing goal, Steeves seemed to be involved because he has a quick release and is able to find teammates through traffic when he can’t get the shot selection he needed.
We haven’t seen huge improvements in Steeves’ game the past three years, but we have seen someone who can consistently be relied on. From a pure statistical perspective, Steeves’ numbers are more than enough to suggest he deserves a shot at the next level, and I thought he looked good as a two-way, physical threat in his short time in the NHL last season. He knows he’s not going to be a top-six NHLer, and that grinding away is going to be what it takes to finally live out his dream.
No matter who he’s lined up with, Steeves seems to make things happen. So what’s holding him back?
Consistency has always been an issue for him, which might look funny on the surface, given his stats. But he was invisible during the playoffs against Belleville (zero points on Toronto’s seven goals), and had multiple stretches with no points and very little else going on away from the puck. Steeves is a better defensive player than during his first year in the AHL, but he’s not dependable or strong enough to emerge like Bobby McMann did this past year.
When you can score, but not do a whole lot else, you run into AAAA territory – good enough to be a star AHLer and earn some call-ups in the NHL, but not good enough to be a role player, and thus never get the chance to be an impact player. A perfect example of that is former Leafs forward Nic Petan, who was an outstanding junior player and could easily hang with the best of them in the AHL, but had enough flaws to prevent him from becoming an everyday NHLer.
Steeves is still an RFA, and he will likely end up signing a contract around league minimum. But when training camp comes around, he needs to make himself expendable. His role in the NHL will be drastically different from what he has been doing in the NHL, so proving himself is crucial. He’s got much more skill than Ryan Reaves or Connor Dewar and has been a better AHLer than Pontus Holmberg ever was. But the difference was that they all understand their roles quite well and do things like backchecking, hitting or taking space away in the defensive zone better than Steeves.
So, it’s hard for Steeves to find a clear path forward. It’s hard to argue that he hasn’t outgrown the AHL for the most part, but he hasn’t demonstrated that he’s good enough to become a true fourth-line piece for the Maple Leafs. There’s an argument that Quillan—who started his NCAA career on the fourth line—has more potential in that role. I do think Steeves is in a better spot than he was, say, a year ago, but he hasn’t really received enough of an opportunity in the NHL to adapt to what the coaching staff wants him to do. Craig Berube likes skilled, two-way players – maybe he gives Steeves a chance this year?
There’s still value in having someone who can be a competent NHLer for a few games a year and still be competitive in the AHL. Winning the Calder Cup matters to an organization, and if Steeves is ultimately kept around for just that, that’s OK, too. They signed him as a free agent, so they didn’t to burn an asset to get him, and he has shown up when asked in the NHL. But he just seems to lack that step forward that would cement himself as an everyday player at this point.
There’s still time for that to change, but it’s up to Steeves to make that happen.
