The Detroit Red Wings are expected to be a wild card contender this season, the same way they ended last season one point out of a playoff spot. As much as there has been a lot of roster change by way of free agent departures, new signees and a couple trades, the Red Wings appear to have treaded water at most this offseason, at least on paper.
On paper, one can never predict how a season will wind up. There are many ways that a season can be flipped on its head in a positive way through players’ strong seasons, or in a negative way due to injuries and slumps. This season, there are some Detroit players who may be bound for breakout seasons, ones that could help the Red Wings inch forward toward the playoffs.
Let’s take a look at some candidates.
Erik Gustafsson
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
This season is going to require some flexibility from Erik Gustafsson. He’s slated to be a big piece of the power play, destined for far more minutes than his past season with the New York Rangers. He’s probably going to be a second pairing defenseman when the season starts, too. And for a big part of the season, might the left-handed Gustafsson also end up playing out of his comfort zone on the right side?
“We’re gonna find out,” Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman said July 4 when asked about Gustafsson’s off-handed abilities. “He’s played back and forth. He’s a mobile guy, he’s been on different teams, he’s a veteran. … Ultimately, I’ll let Derek (Lalonde) decide on what he does, but I could certainly foresee him playing playing the right side.”
Questions of handedness aside, his overall deployment might put Gustafsson in prime territory for a breakout.
The Red Wings brought Gustafsson in for one reason: to run a power play and score points. He’s going to get more offensive minutes than he did last season, playing behind Adam Fox and a couple of budding young defensemen with the New York Rangers. Even in a diminished role, last season’s 31-point campaign was the third-highest of his career. With more leash may come more production.
Gustafsson’s potential for a breakout year isn’t untraveled territory. In fact, the player he was brought in to replace — Shayne Gostisbehere — had a renaissance last season while running the power play. His 56 point total was the second highest of his career, well above his 41 the year prior.
Might Gustafsson see a similar bump? It wouldn’t be all that shocking. And if one needs any more evidence for breakout potential, he set his career high in points at 60 during the 2018-19 season when he ran a power play with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. Gustafsson’s addition has breakout written all over it.
Alex DeBrincat
Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports
This one’s a bit tricky. You’re probably asking, How can an NHL All-Star be a breakout candidate? It all comes down to consistency, health and a little bit of luck.
DeBrincat was one of the NHL’s most hot-and-cold scorers last season. At the start of the year, 40 goals seemed out of the question when he, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond composed a potent top line. DeBrincat piled on nine goals in October and eight more by the end of 2023. By the end of the season, however, with many slumps holding him back, DeBrincat mustered just 27 goals the entire season. For a player brought in for goal scoring, DeBrincat’s fall-off was catastrophic.
There are a lot of reasons why DeBrincat may have trailed off his scoring pace, but he enters 2024-25 with a chance to rectify the issues. Last season marked his career worst shooting percentage — ironic given Detroit’s unsustainably high shooting percentage as a team. He also struggled to find offense during the 14 games Larkin missed with injuries. Either of those issues could break in a different direction this season.
Another reason DeBrincat might bounce back: his longtime linemate, Patrick Kane. For the first time since the start of his hip injuries, Kane believes this summer that he can train like an athlete. If last season’s 47 points in 50 games came when Kane was barely scraping by, then imagine how much he could produce in a healthy season. That would stand to benefit DeBrincat a great deal if they stick together.
Justin Holl
Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Is this a breakout or a break-in? When it comes to his place on the Red Wings’ roster, Justin Holl enters 2024-25 with a clean slate, so to speak. Whereas he played himself out of a roster spot last season on an exceedingly deep blue line, Detroit’s offseason moves have opened up a spot on the right side for him to get into more games. With that opportunity comes a chance to prove he’s a dependable defenseman in far more games than his 38 in 2023-24.
A breakout season for Holl doesn’t have to be a shocker. He doesn’t have to be an extraordinarily great defender or pour on the scoring in the other end. All he has to do is prove dependable for a whole season, and that would be a breakout in context of his practically permanent press box view last season.
The need for such a breakout is apparent. The Red Wings are increasingly spending close to the salary cap as star players earn big contracts, and they don’t have the cap wiggle room to just scratch him all the time. In fact, that situation is exactly what motivated some moves such as Detroit’s trading of Jake Walman.
“Our last couple of games, we had $6.8 million in defense sitting in the stands,” Yzerman said July 4. “We couldn’t do that this year with our young players contracts coming up, and so we had to make some changes.”
The changes made put Holl in a position to play more, and now he’s in position to make good on the investment. Likely destined for a third pairing role, Holl should get ample opportunities to get into games. In that role, he could seize the opportunity to actually play.
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