The New York Islanders will face the Florida Panthers in a game that will likely highlight two teams that are headed in opposite directions to close out the 2023-24 season. The Islanders, who have lost seven of their last eight games, are sliding out of the playoff picture with a 30-26-15 record, and at this point, it will take a miracle to see them sneak into a playoff spot. The Panthers on the other hand are 46-21-5 and in second place in the Atlantic Division and in an arms race for the best record in the NHL.
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The game between the Islanders and Panthers highlights the difference between an average or underachieving team and a team capable of winning the Stanley Cup. It also highlights the gap between the duos that lead both teams. To be fair, Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, the two skaters who lead the Islanders, have made big strides this season and are one of the few reasons the team is competitive. That said, they are still a significant level below the duo that carries the Panthers in Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, and they have a way to go to close the gap.
Defense & Physicality
Barzal has improved noticeably on the defensive end of the ice this season. He has a great backcheck and uses his speed to his advantage as he can close in on opponents with the puck and force turnovers. His 79 takeaways lead the team and with 1.4 defensive point shares, he’s tied with Horvat for the most among forwards. Speaking of Horvat, he’s been one of the Islanders’ best defensive forwards since he was acquired during the 2023 All-Star Break. He controls the middle of the ice and prevents opponents from moving the puck into the offensive zone and finding effective shots from the high-danger areas.
The Islanders’ two top skaters are impressive on the defensive end yet they aren’t the same as Barkov and Tkachuk. Barkov won the Selke Trophy in 2020-21 and the league started to take notice of his talent. He not only creates turnovers as the Panthers’ top-line center but turns defense into instant offense. On top of that, he’s a shot blocker and wants to make an impact defensively by all means necessary. Tkachuk has also made a similar impact on the defensive end of the ice and his ability was on full display during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs when he could take over games in all three zones to help the Panthers reach the Final. The duo has combined for 4.5 defensive point shares this season and helped turn the defense into one of the best in the league as the team only allows 2.43 goals per game.
The gap between the Islanders’ duo and Panthers’ duo when it comes to defense is twofold. The first difference is that Barzal and Horvat don’t turn defense into instant offense. Barzal with his speed will do so occasionally but the transition from the turnover to the rush the other way is where he must improve. The other issue is that Barzal and Horvat, while impressive defensively, aren’t willing to deliver the big hit like Tkachuk or Barkov. Moreover, they aren’t going to drop the gloves and fight for the Islanders the way the two Panthers skaters do. Barkov and Tkachuk have combined for 223 hits this season, while the Islanders duo only has 105. They don’t make an impact in the physical game and it both sets the top-six and the forward unit as a whole back, especially when they face the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
Taking Over Games
Tkachuk is a star who can and has notably dominated games and singlehandedly allowed the Panthers to win them. This season, he’s had three four-point games, all of which the Panthers have won. In the playoffs, Tkachuk’s two-goal performance against the Boston Bruins in Game 6 forced a winner-take-all Game 7 and helped the team complete the first round upset. He’s been a culture setter in that regard as a skater who can give the team an edge when they need it and it’s made the decision to acquire him in the 2022 offseason all the more worthwhile.
Barzal and Horvat have willed the Islanders to a handful of victories, especially the games they’ve won in overtime (which has happened 23 times this season). Most recently, the duo connected for the overtime winner on Feb. 26 against the Dallas Stars with Barzal finding Horvat for the goal. However, they have proven they can only do so much. The two stars will win the Islanders a handful of games but they won’t carry them to the playoffs and this season has been a good case in point of that.
Barzal & Horvat Lack a Good Supporting Cast
In Barzal and Horvat’s defense, they are doing more with less. Barkov and Tkachuk aren’t asked to carry the offense with their roster possessing plenty of depth scorers and similarly, the defensive unit is strong from the top pair to the third pairing. The Islanders can’t say the same.
The Islanders only have six skaters with 10 goals or more while the Panthers have nine skaters who have passed the 10-goal threshold. On defense, the Islanders’ unit falls off after Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov while the Panthers not only have one of the best on the defensive end of the ice in Gustav Forsling, but they also have multiple skaters rounding out the unit. Barzal and Horvat are tasked with leading an Islanders team that has glaring weaknesses across the board and frankly, would be a last-place team without them.
It’s possible that by next season, the Islanders will have a duo similar to the one the Panthers have. The problem is that the rest of the roster isn’t at the same level, at least not with the way it’s constructed at the moment.
