“It’s a process,” Andlauer said in December via Dan Rosen of NHL.com. “I’m the new boss. I’m looking at all our key employees and trying to understand and making sure that they have the right tools to be successful. But I can feel the fans’ angst.”
After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, the Senators have their work cut out for them if they’re going to meaningfully compete in the Atlantic Division.
Here’s what you need to know about the 2024-25 Ottawa Senators!
Linus Ullmark may need to work miracles for the Senators
Linus Ullmark is two years removed from a Vezina-calibre campaign and despite the noise surrounding his impending status, with Jeremy Swayman in need of a lucrative extension, the 31-year-0ld still registered as one of the NHL’s elite goaltenders. Ullmark saved 14.8 goals above expected at 5-on-5 via MoneyPuck, the seventh-best total in the league. Boston boasted the ultimate luxury in two elite goaltenders and rather than keeping its core assets, it traded Ullmark to Ottawa in exchange for Korpisalo, Mark Kastelic and a 2024 first-round pick — which Boston used to select towering forward Dean Letourneau with the No. 25 overall pick.
Ullmark presents a compelling position for the Senators, who ultimately surrendered a late first-rounder for cost certainty. Goaltending fluctuates year-over-year but even the biggest pessimist couldn’t have anticipated Korpisalo’s form falling off a cliff upon signing a five-year deal. It’s new territory for Ullmark, who is now the undisputed No. 1 goalie, a designation he didn’t have even during his Vezina season, with Swayman operating as Boston’s 1B. Ullmark started 49 games two seasons ago, the highest-volume campaign of his career. Anton Forsberg is slated as the No. 2 goalie for the Senators but he’s also coming off a rough season where he saved -8.7 goals above expected at 5-on-5, while posting a .890 save percentage.
In every sense, Ullmark is a true No. 1 and will likely have to start 55 games or greater if the Senators are to meaningfully compete for a playoff spot. Ottawa surrendered 281 goals last season, tied for the fifth-worst mark in the league and Ullmark will have to adjust to playing on a team that doesn’t have sound defensive principles in place like Boston does under Jim Montgomery’s supervision. Ottawa is betting on Ullmark maintaining Vezina or Vezina down-ballot form as its goaltender of the future, but it may be more accurate to cast him as its saviour.
Is this the final year where the core’s youth and inexperience can be used as an excuse?
Ottawa was in a prolonged rebuild for several seasons which led to the net result of drafting Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Ridly Greig, Drake Batherson and Jake Sanderson, with Thomas Chabot operating as the first piece of this core group. Youth can be an excuse in the NHL, it’s hard to win games immediately. But at what point does the Senators’ relative youth and inexperience no longer work as a passable excuse, especially with new ownership’s patience likely wearing thin during Year Two in power.
Tkachuk has graduated into a borderline elite power forward, who can dominate off the rush (T5 in the NHL with 18 rush attempts at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick), body his way to the front of the net (4th in NHL in individual expected goals) with an analytical profile that suggests a further offensive eruption. Stutzle’s raw numbers trended downwards but he’s two years removed from a 90-point season and he turns 23 in January. Sanderson’s analytical profile, pedigree and raw ability suggests that he should be one of the breakout stars of the upcoming campaign, while Chabot is known to be one of the NHL’s most tireless defenders, taking on a gargantuan workload year after year. They are better on paper than the results suggest, so when does youth become a misnomer?
Sanderson is quietly turning into Ottawa’s real star on the back end, with strong possession numbers, while acing the eye test with superior skating and change-of-pace skills. It’s an intriguing, if not outright enviable core for the Senators to have. Playing against the defending champion Florida Panthers and perpetual contenders like the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning has made linear progress a difficult goal to accomplish but at the end of the day, the Senators are underperforming. It’s not difficult to look back at Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander arriving a year ahead of schedule during the 2016-17 season, kickstarting a wave of playoff appearances that have ultimately culminated in a decade of disappointment. Ottawa’s young stars are running out of time and excuses as youth is fleeting in the NHL, just like it cruelly is in real life.
Projected finish: 7th in Atlantic Division
All stats from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck unless indicated otherwise.
