Ahead of the 2024-25 NHL season, the Detroit Red Wings project to be one of the most entertaining teams in the league. Whether they’ll snap their near-decade long playoff drought is an entirely different matter.
Resisting temptation to make an outdated parable to the automotive industry, the Red Wings project to be an uptempo team that will fill up the scoresheet, but will also struggle to keep goals out of their net. Detroit’s 278 goals were the most by any non-playoff team and the addition of Vladimir Tarasenko is a sign that it will try to play a fast and furious style, trying to outscore their opponents. Whether this is by design, or just another step in a seemingly endless rebuild, there is a categorial imperative to get over the hump, or else general manager Steve Yzerman may be forced to reevaluate the ‘Yzerplan’ while fighting for legitimacy in the ubercompetitive Atlantic Division.
Detroit could be a menace on the power play, with Tarasenko potentially joining a unit that features Patrick Kane, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat and captain Dylan Larkin, where it could improve on its ninth-ranked standing from last season, converting at a 23.1 percent clip. If the Red Wings’ plan to outgun their opponents at all costs, while relying on Mortiz Seider to operate as its foundational defenceman doesn’t lead to a playoff berth, this may spell the end for head coach Derek Lalonde.
Can the Red Wings shoot their way into a playoff spot, while relying on internal improvement from Seider, Raymond, and 21-year-old defenceman Simon Edvinsson? It’s the simple premise that dictates their season. Here’s what you need to know about the 2024-25 Detroit Red Wings.
Can an all-offense, no-defense line function with Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko?
We’ve harped on the Red Wings operating as a polarizing team on both ends of the ice. Detroit clearly valued Kane’s Cup-winning pedigree and evidently, they see the same value in Tarasenko, who is coming off the second title of his career, helping the Florida Panthers to their first-ever championship. They’ve effectively doubled down on the player who may have the most similar resemblance to Kane’s game as Tarasenko currently functions an all-offence, no-defence forward. Is this sustainable, especially with Kane and Tarasenko currently projected to begin the year together, centred by J.T. Compher?
Kane’s defence analytics are better than the eye test suggest, ranking 395h out of 633 eligible skaters (400 minutes or greater at 5-on-5 for the purpose of this exercise) in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) and if the best defence is stellar offence, he still holds value as a true second-line winger. Tarasenko is the real culprit, however, ranking 602th in xGA/60, while often being shielded by Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, the reigning Selke winner and another elite defensive presence. What is perhaps most worrisome is that defenceman Olli Maataa is the only Red Wings player last season to crack the top 100 in this metric. It’s not a catch-all evaluation to be sure, but the Red Wings simply do not care to defend well and Kane and Tarasenko may exemplify this problem better than anyone.
True shutdown lines may be a thing of the past, but the Red Wings don’t really have anyone who is considered a genuine two-way forward and in a division that features some elite offensive talent, this is a real concern. But again, this could be the very projection of ‘shut up, you nerd!’ because the Red Wings are going to score and hunt for chances whenever possible. Wheeltown has rarely felt more exciting to watch over the past decade.
A resurgent Cam Talbot campaign is the Red Wings’ ticket to the playoffs
We don’t enjoy being cruel in these spaces but the Red Wings’ goaltending was terrible last season and was the main reason why the team narrowly missed the playoffs. Cam Talbot and Jack Campbell have been brought in and ahead of training camp, the Red Wings are running a four-man rotation between the net, with Ville Husso and Alex Lyon still on the roster.
Campbell is likely the odd man out, and will almost certainly start the year in the AHL. Husso struggled badly in 19 games last season, posting an .892 save percentage, while saving -4.9 goals above expected at 5-on-5. Lyon fared better, saving 2.1 goals above expected in 44 games but posted a .904 save percentage, and he’s ideally suited as a true backup goaltender in the NHL, rather than a fringe starter at this juncture of his career. And it’s Talbot who will be tasked with operating as the No. 1.
Talbot is coming off a stellar campaign, where he saved 10.7 goals above expected at 5-on-5, the 14th-best total in the NHL, with a .913 save percentage. He’s the rare goaltender who hasn’t been subject to age-related decline, he’s capable of taking on a tremendous workload and though he turned 37 in July, his two-year deal worth $2.5 million annually may project as one of the biggest steals in the NHL if he replicates his 2024 form. It’s a clever bet from Yzerman and you figure that Husso could be used as a midseason trade piece, if it’s clear that Talbot is the runaway starter.
Detroit is going to surrender a ton of shots and Talbot will be asked to keep the team afloat in 5-4 games. Will he be the final piece in the Red Wings’ bid for playoff contention, before their core ages into their peak Cup-contending years? It’ll be the central component behind this year’s team and a new challenge for the two-time All-Star.
Projected finish: 5th place in Atlantic Division
All stats from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick and MoneyPuck
