Steven Stamkos sent tidal waves across the NHL landscape at the start of the 2023-24 season where he revealed that he was unhappy with his contract negotiations, opening an escape hatch from the only professional club he’s ever played for. Stamkos and the Lightning had all year to negotiate, but the franchise’s all-time greatest player signed with the Nashville Predators in free agency. The death of political dynasties usually come through a series of small fractures rather than one fell swoop, but this was the first seismic move that’s affected the Lightning as a function of winning and maxing out the cap.
If you view it in zero-sum terms and many hockey fans might, Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois made a zero-sum bet when he signed Jake Guentzel to a seven-year, $63-million pact this offseason, effectively swapping out his longtime captain for a winger four years his junior. Guentzel has the proven Cup pedigree required to fit in with a veteran-laden group and he constantly wedges his way into high-danger areas but ultimately, BriseBois’ calculus comes down to Stamkos vs. Guentzel.
Perhaps Stamkos’ career has been so impeccable to date than an 81-point campaign constituted a mild disappointment, but it’s a compelling hedge. Guentzel recorded 77 points split between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Carolina Hurricanes, and will likely start the season on a powerhouse first line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, but it has to work immediately, or else the direct swap may come back to haunt a Lightning team that is on the downslope of a dynasty, surpassed by its interstate rival. And it very well could — Point is arguably the best player in the league at navigating tight spaces, while Kucherov’s inventiveness and creativity makes him a constant offensive threat at all times, winning the scoring title last year. Could this be the NHL’s most productive line in 2024-25?
Brandon Hagel somehow still slips under the radar as one of the most underrated players in the league, coming off a 26-goal, 75-point campaign while Anthony Cirelli has carved out a clear role as an elite two-way forward who will top out around 20 goals. There’s enough value within their top-five forwards that offence won’t necessarily dry up, but it’s a top-heavy roster and Kucherov’s offensive fireworks masked the fact that the Lightning were a sub-50 percent Corsi and expected goals team, with a -19 goal differential at 5-on-5.
There’s always so many compelling parts to the Tampa Bay Lightning, when you consider that they’re still boasting almost a half a dozen players who may eventually vie for Hall of Fame status and if a down-year projection still sees the Bolts punching their playoff ticket, this could be a true bounce-back year of sorts. Here’s what you need to know about the 2024-25 Tampa Bay Lightning.
Victor Hedman may be pushed to his limit with greater responsibilities
Victor Hedman will almost certainly be named the next captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning, he’s the best defenceman in franchise history and is one of the aforementioned future Hall of Famers on this team. Hedman is used to carrying Herculean workloads during the course of his career, even while the Lightning were a cut above the rest of the NHL during their title years.
And even though he’s outside of his prime, Hedman is still functioning as a No. 1 defenceman, even if he’s no longer in contention for the Norris Trophy, logging 24:08 in ice-time last season, the eighth-highest figure in the league — ahead of Norris winner Quinn Hughes and finalist Cale Makar. This season could provide some unique challenges as he will be asked to carry a Lightning defense corps that will sorely miss Mikhail Sergachev’s two-way impact, after he was traded to the Utah Hockey Club for defenceman J.J. Moser, forward Conor Geekie — who ought to help reestablish Tampa Bay’s next generation, selected No. 11 overall in 2022 — along with a 2025 second-round pick and a 2024 seventh-round pick, which was used to select forward Noah Steen from Sweden’s second division.
Sergachev was Tampa Bay’s best defenceman two seasons ago, he’s firmly in the prime of his career, he can log huge minutes, play with two-way impact and crushing physicality, and was a core part of the dynasty. This may be the most difficult year of Hedman’s career, or at least since Tampa Bay forged itself as a perpetual contender. Continuity matters in the NHL and perhaps head coach Jon Cooper can take some solace, but Hedman will be reunited with Darren Raddysh, who he effectively had to carry against top-line competition last season.
Hedman-Raddysh played 583:47 at 5-on-5 last season with a plus-five goal differential and a 51.6 percent share of the expected goals. These are good results but it’s largely because of Hedman’s ability to control a game in all facets, while carrying a partner who is better suited as a true No. 4. Hedman sported a plus-12 goal differential when he was on the ice at 5-on-5 (72 goals for, 60 against) whereas Raddysh finished with a -6 goal differential (64 for, 70 against) despite the fact that they were primarily paired together. This could be surmised as a workaround for plus-minus, but really Hedman can still produce good results by himself, whereas Raddysh is hanging on, above his level.
And this pairing will see greater volume, as McDonagh is no longer the player he was during the Cup runs, facing some age-related decline, Erik Cernak is a staple of the team but provides next to no offence, and Hedman may be in line for the largest workload he’s faced in several years. Is it too much for him at this stage of his career? On paper, the Lightning are a top-heavy roster who have the star power to push any team on a given night, but this type of imbalance is difficult to manage, even for a sure-fire Hall of Famer like Hedman.
Andrei Vasilevskiy’s 2023-24 season may have been an aberration in a Hall of Fame career
It always felt like a cheat code during the dynasty years that the Lightning also boasted Andrei Vasilevskiy, the best goaltender of his generation. In the event that the Lightning’s rotation of Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh (back for his second stint this year!) Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak would get into trouble, Vasilevskiy would calmly bail the Lightning out. I tend to agree with Kucherov’s assessment of Vasilevskiy following their 2021 Stanley Cup victory: it is number one bulls— that Vasilevskiy didn’t win the Vezina every year from 2019-2022!
How would you describe Andrei Vasilevskiy’s two-year run that backstopped the @TBLightning to consecutive Stanley Cups? #NHLStats #NHLGoalieWeek pic.twitter.com/JsfMoAmeLa
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) August 26, 2024
Vasilevskiy underwent back surgery in September 2023 and it clearly affected him when he returned to action in late November. Tampa Bay battled its way to a wild-card spot, largely on the strength of a superlative offensive campaign from Kucherov and its cheat code was eventually cracked. Vasilevskiy saved -2.5 goals above expected at 5-on-5 via MoneyPuck, the 36th-best total in the league. That’s not great but using a singular metric to determine overall performance isn’t a full portrait and he was sandwiched between Jake Allen and Juuse Saros. Even by traditional metrics, it was clear that wasn’t the same Vasilevskiy, who posted a .900 save percentage and 2.90 goals against average, the worst totals of his career.
Perhaps all Vasilevskiy needs is some much-warranted rest, which the Lightning finally received after a first-round exit at the hands of the Florida Panthers. Vasilevskiy will be entering the season — barring another procedure, of course — healthy, rested and motivated by the prospect of another deep playoff run, while the Lightning fend off the notion that they’re the deposed kings of the league. Was Vasilevskiy’s 2023-24 an aberration in what ought to be a first-ballot Hall of Fame career, or is he entering a period of decline going into his age-31 season? It may be the question that dictates the Lightning’s season, while accelerating their long-term prospectus.
Projected finish: 4th in Atlantic Divison, wild-card spot
