The 2023-24 season was supposed to be the year some new blood broke through in the Atlantic Division. Perhaps one of the Ottawa Senators or Buffalo Sabres could finally make the postseason after years of the usual faces controlling playoff positions, but that never materialized. The Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning were once again the top four in the Atlantic, and that might not change this coming season. Let’s round up the Atlantic Division and see who has improved and who hasn’t.
Florida Panthers
2023-24 season: 52-24-6, 110 points, Stanley Cup champions
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed Adam Boqvist (1 year)
- Signed Nate Schmidt (1 year)
- Signed Jesper Boqvist (1 year)
- Signed Tomáš Nosek (1 year)
- Signed A.J. Greer (1 year)
- Signed Chris Driedger (1 year)
- Re-signed Sam Reinhart (8 years)
- Re-signed Dmitry Kulikov (4 years)
Key departures:
Brandon Montour, Anthony Stolarz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Stenlund, Steven Lorentz, Ryan Lomberg, Kyle Okposo, Nick Cousins
It’s probably good the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup this year. Even though they should still be a contender in 2024-25, they probably won’t be as good as they were a season ago after some of their departures this summer.
The most notable moves for general manager Bill Zito were retaining Dmitry Kulikov and Sam Reinhart, who got term but came at team-friendly prices; Reinhart signed at an average annual value (AAV) of $8.625 million, while Kulikov signed for an AAV of $1.15 million.
Retaining Kulikov was key since Brandon Montour departed for the Seattle Kraken on a seven-year deal. The Panthers’ blue line would have been in trouble had they lost both, but even so, the group looks weaker than a season ago. With Montour out, Zito signed Nate Schmidt and Adam Boqvist to one-year deals. Both players should fill out the third pair, but that suddenly makes Kulikov and Niko Mikkola the second pair, a downgrade from a season ago.
The Panthers’ forward depth also took a bit of a hit. Out are Kevin Stenlund, Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan Lomberg and Steven Lorentz, and in are Jesper Boqvist, Tomáš Nosek and A.J. Greer. Nosek had an injury-plagued 2023-24 with the New Jersey Devils, so it’s hard to assess what he’ll provide. Boqvist was solid in his time with the Boston Bruins and is a decent bottom-six forward, but this looks like a group that’s downgraded, too.
All told, the Panthers lost a net of 4.1 wins from last season’s team when including Anthony Stolarz, one of the best backup goalies in the NHL last season. Will they be four wins worse this coming season? Maybe not, but the Panthers might not be the complete wagon they were in 2023-24.
Boston Bruins
2023-24 season: 47-20-15, 109 points, 2nd in Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed Elias Lindholm (7 years)
- Signed Nikita Zadorov (7 years)
- Acquired Joonas Korpisalo
- Acquired Mark Kastelic
Key departures:
- Linus Ullmark, Jake DeBrusk, Kevin Shattenkirk, James van Riemsdyk, Matt Grzelcyk, Jesper Boqvist, Derek Forbort, Danton Heinen
The Bruins exceeded expectations last season, finishing just one point behind the Panthers for first in the Atlantic. They got by with great goaltending, as they usually do, from Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. But that won’t be the case next season, as the Bruins traded Ullmark to the Senators for some cap relief.
Joonas Korpisalo was part of the return for Ullmark, but he struggled mightily for the Senators last season, totaling an .890 save percentage and giving up 16.1 goals above expected across 55 appearances. He’s under contract for the next four seasons at a cap hit of $3 million, so the Bruins will likely give him a chance to be the 1B to Swayman, but it’s no guarantee to work.
The Bruins also made a couple of big-money signings in free agency, bringing in Elias Lindholm on a seven-year deal and Nikita Zadorov on a six-year contract. Lindholm struggled mightily this past season and was worth a wins above replacement (WAR) of minus-0.8. Can he rebound after two straight years where his play has declined? Time will tell. Zadorov may have been an overpay, but he is a solid No. 4/5 defenseman who should help the back end.
The real story of the Bruins’ offseason, though, was who they lost. Between the departures mentioned above, the Bruins lost 7.7 wins from last season’s team, Ullmark included. Between Lindholm, Zadorov, Korpisalo and Kastelic, the Bruins lose 2.6 more wins based on 2023-24 results since they had negative WARs last season.
Now, that’s not to say they’ll be nearly 10 wins worse in 2024-25. The Bruins still have Swayman, and goalies seem to thrive in their system, meaning Korpisalo could rebound. But I would bet on them taking a step back. Their over/under at Draft Kings is 99.5 points for 2024-25, so their playoff position could be more precarious than a season ago.
Toronto Maple Leafs
2023-24 Season: 46-26-10, 102 points, 3rd in Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed Chris Tanev (6 years)
- Signed Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4 years)
- Signed Jani Hakanpaa (2 years)
- Signed Stolarz (2 years)
- Signed Connor Dewar (1 year)
- Re-signed Max Domi (4 years)
- Hired Craig Berube as head coach
Key departures:
Tyler Bertuzzi, Ilya Samsonov, Ilya Lyubushkin, Martin Jones, John Klingberg, Joel Edmundson, TJ Brodie, Sheldon Keefe
There was plenty of turnover for the Toronto Maple Leafs this offseason, but they should still be one of the top teams in the Atlantic Division. GM Brad Treliving had a busy offseason, making plenty of moves.
Signing Chris Tanev to a six-year deal could cause problems down the road, given he’s 34, but he’s still one of the best defensive defensemen in the NHL. He should be a good complement to Morgan Rielly on the top pair. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who signed for four years with the Maple Leafs, found new life with the Panthers this past season. If new head coach Craig Berube keeps Ekman-Larsson’s usage to a No. 4 or 5 defenseman, he could help.
Speaking of Berube, he may be the biggest factor in how far the Maple Leafs go this season. He’s known as a great motivator but perhaps isn’t the best Xs and Os coach, a contrast from former coach Sheldon Keefe, who’s now with the Devils.
Related: Projecting the NHL’s Top 5 Offenses in 2024-25
Goaltending is also a question mark for the Maple Leafs. Joseph Woll is good when healthy, but that’s been a rarity in his young career. Stolarz is coming off the best season of his career, and it’s not even close. He saved 20.1 goals above expected, so there’s probably some regression coming his way. Still, he’s been a league- to above-league-average netminder for most of his career, so he should help.
The Maple Leafs’ O/U for next season is 102.5, the highest among Atlantic Division teams with the Panthers, who are also at 102.5. They added a net of 8.7 wins based on last season’s results, and though they likely won’t be nearly nine wins better because I expect regression from Stolarz, who was worth four wins last season, this Maple Leafs team should still be competing for the top spot in the Atlantic.
Tampa Bay Lightning
2023-24 season: 45-29-8, 98 points, 4th in the Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed Jake Guentzel (7 years)
- Signed Zemgus Girgensons (3 years)
- Signed Cam Atkinson (1 year)
- Acquired Ryan McDonagh
- Acquired and re-signed JJ Moser (2 years)
Key departures
Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos, Anthony Duclair, Calvin de Haan, Matt Dumba, Tanner Jeannot
It was quite the summer of change for the Tampa Bay Lightning. First, it started with trading Mikhail Sergachev to Utah HC on Day 2 of the NHL Draft. Then, they acquired the negotiating rights to Jake Guentzel from the Carolina Hurricanes and inked him to a seven-year contract. That deal marked the end of the Steven Stamkos era in Tampa, as he signed with the Nashville Predators in free agency.
So, what do we make of the new-look Lightning? Guentzel is probably an upgrade on Stamkos, even if it may not seem like it. He’s five years younger and is a much better five-on-five player than Stamkos at this point in their careers. A 29-year-old Guentzel at an AAV of $9 million over a 34-year-old Stamkos at an AAV of $8 million? I get GM Julien BriseBois’s thought process.
The Lightning’s blue line will also have a much different look. Ryan McDonagh is back for his second stint with the team, and though he’s not what he used to be, he’s still a capable top-four defender. JJ Moser posted decent results on a poor Arizona Coyotes team and should be a capable third-pair defender.
While I like what the Lightning did this offseason, this team looks the most vulnerable to losing their playoff spot in the Atlantic in 2024-25. They’re a top-heavy team up front and do not have the bottom-six depth they had when they made three straight Stanley Cup Finals.
The right side of their defense is also a question mark. How much confidence do you have in a right side of Darren Raddysh, Erik Cernak, and Nick Perbix? Plus, Victor Hedman is declining defensively, so there are concerns on the back end.
The Lightning’s O/U for next season is 98.5. They added a net of 0.6 wins this offseason, so they’re more or less the same team they were a season ago (they did finish with 98 points). But I wouldn’t call them a safe playoff team, because of the clubs we’ve mentioned so far, they’re the most flawed. It wouldn’t shock me if they’re fighting for a playoff spot to close the 2024-25 regular season.
Detroit Red Wings
2023-24 season: 41-32-9, 91 points, 5th in the Atlantic
Notable offseason moves:
- Re-signed Patrick Kane (1 year)
- Re-signed Christian Fischer (1 year)
- Signed Cam Talbot (2 years)
- Signed Erik Gustafsson (2 years)
- Signed Tyler Motte (1 year)
- Signed Vladimir Tarasenko (2 years)
Key departures:
David Perron, Jake Walman, Daniel Sprong, Shayne Gostisbehere, Robby Fabbri, James Reimer
If there’s an NHL team that’s stuck in no man’s land, it’s the Detroit Red Wings. Steve Yzerman has gained a reputation as one of the league’s most overrated GMs, and it’s tough to argue with it. I think he’s done a fine job drafting, but assessing and adding NHL talent has been a big question mark during his tenure.
This offseason was no different, as some odd moves were made in Hockeytown. It started with trading Jake Walman AND a second-round pick to the San Jose Sharks and getting nothing of value in return. He’s a capable top-four defenseman, and they cap-dumped him when I’m sure there would’ve been teams interested in giving up something to acquire him.
You figured with that move that Yzerman would’ve been up to something in free agency or the trade market, but their moves were modest at best. They re-signed Patrick Kane to a one-year deal and signed Tarasenko to a two-year contract. That’s top-six/top-nine scoring adding to the lineup, but I’m not sure how much it moves the needle.
Erik Gustafsson should be an adequate replacement for Shayne Gostisbehere, who signed with the Hurricanes in free agency. Cam Talbot posted a .916 SV% with the Los Angeles Kings last season and could be an upgrade in net, but I don’t see how the Red Wings got much better this offseason. They didn’t get worse, either, but they look like more of the same, and that was a 91-point team.
The Red Wings added a net of 3.2 wins this offseason, which would get them to 97 points next season, but it’ll depend on if Talbot is a four-win goalie this coming season as he was with the Kings. Their O/U for next season is 90.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that’s around where they end up.
Buffalo Sabres
2023-24 season: 39-37-6, 84 points, 6th in Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed Jason Zucker (1 year)
- Signed Sam Lafferty (2 years)
- Signed Nicolas Aube-Kubel (1 year)
- Signed James Reimer (1 year)
- Acquired Ryan McLeod
- Acquired Beck Malenstyn
- Hired Lindy Ruff as head coach
Key departures:
Eric Comrie, Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson, Jeff Skinner, Don Granato
It’s been an interesting offseason for the Buffalo Sabres. After spending three-plus seasons with the Devils, they hired Lindy Ruff for his second stint as their head coach. The Sabres had oodles of cap space to work with to improve their roster this summer, especially after buying out Jeff Skinner, but most of their work was around the edges.
Jason Zucker should add scoring to the top nine, while Ryan McLeod will likely settle in as the team’s third-line center. They also shored up their bottom-six depth by bringing in Sam Lafferty and Nicolas Aube-Kubel on two- and one-year deals and acquiring Beck Malenstyn from the Washington Capitals for a second-round pick (50th overall in 2024).
Last season was a disappointment for the Sabres, as they finished seven points worse in the standings than in 2022-23. The pressure is on to be competitive, but this doesn’t look like a playoff team on paper.
Yes, the Sabres added a net of 4.6 wins this offseason, but this roster still feels like it’s missing something after buying out Skinner. They didn’t exactly go out of their way to replace him, so there’ll be a lot riding on young players like JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn to take steps forward and replace some of the offense they lost in Skinner, who scored 24 goals last season.
They’ll also need Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen to repeat the season he just had to have a chance at competing in the Atlantic. While I suspect the Sabres will be better this season than in 2023-24, they’ll likely be a bubble team again; their O/U is 88.5.
Ottawa Senators
2023-24 season: 37-41-4, 78 points, 7th in Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
- Signed David Perron (2 years)
- Signed Michael Amadio (3 years)
- Signed Noah Gregor (1 year)
- Acquired Nick Jensen
- Acquired Linus Ullmark
- Hired Travis Green as head coach
Key departures:
Jakob Chychrun, Joonas Korpisalo, Mathieu Joseph, Mark Kastelic, Erik Brannstrom, Parker Kelly, Dominik Kubalik
Sure, the Sabres may have disappointed last season, but I’m not sure a team underperformed preseason expectations more than the Ottawa Senators other than the Devils. They were never a lock to make the playoffs, but most prognosticators had them as a bubble team that would finish with around 90-92 points. And they did not even come close to that.
However, Steve Staios had a solid first offseason as the Senators’ GM. Most notably, acquiring Ullmark should go a long way for a Senators team that’s gotten AHL-level goaltending over the last few seasons. Was Ullmark a product of the Bruins’ system? Perhaps a bit, but he was still a quality netminder with the Sabres. He may not add four wins for the Senators, but he should help.
Scoring depth has also been an issue for the Senators, but David Perron and Michael Amadio should bolster that. Perron did show some signs of slowing down last season, but he’s probably still a 40-50-point player. Amadio doesn’t have that type of upside, but he is one of the better bottom-six wingers in the NHL.
Acquiring Nick Jensen and a 2026 third-round pick for Jakob Chychrun was underwhelming, but Jensen is a decent bottom-four defender, though he did have a down year in 2023-24. Still, the Senators look like an improved team. Ullmark excluded, they added a net of 3.5 wins based on last season’s results. Include his 3.9 WAR, and that’d be seven additional wins for the Senators, getting them to 92 points.
The Senators’ O/U is 90.5, so they should be competitive in the Atlantic if Ullmark gives them competent goaltending. I’m not crazy about the Travis Green hire as head coach, but this roster should be good enough to overcome that.
Montreal Canadiens
2023-24 season: 30-36-16, 76 points, 8th in Atlantic
Notable offseason additions:
Key departures:
Johnathan Kovacevic
I’m pretty sure the Montreal Canadiens had the quietest offseason of any NHL team, but that’s not the worst outcome. They know what their plan is and are executing it. They made big bets on extensions with Juraj Slafkovsky and Kaiden Guhle that look pretty smart, but those were obviously internal moves.
Johnathan Kovacevic is a solid No. 6/7 defenseman, but the Canadiens’ pipeline has plenty of promising young blueliners ready to replace him. Their O/U is set at 76.5, which seems fair, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they are a tad better than that with some internal improvement. This team is still a year away from making things interesting, but they’re getting there.
Don’t Expect Too Much Change in the Atlantic
So what will the Atlantic Division look like in 2024-25? It doesn’t appear as strong as a season ago, but the standings might still look similar. The Maple Leafs and Panthers, though a little worse than last season, still seem like the teams to beat; they do have the most high-end talent with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, etc.
But it gets a bit more interesting after them. It’s hard to pick against the Bruins and Lightning until someone knocks them out, so they’ll likely be in the thick of the race for a top-three spot in the Atlantic. It should be a bit more competitive, though, if the Red Wings, Senators and even the Sabres get it together. Those three teams should be hovering around 90 points, and that could knock off points from teams like the Bruins and Lightning, so it’ll be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Atlantic Prediction:
- Panthers, 106 points
- Maple Leafs, 103 points
- Bruins, 101 points
- Lightning, 95 points (WC1)
- Red Wings, 91 points
- Sabres, 89 points
- Senators, 88 points
- Canadiens, 79 points
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Advanced stats from Money Puck, Evolving Hockey
