In a previous post, I took a look at how Craig Berube deployed his forwards for St. Louis. I can’t speak for the readers, but it left me feeling optimistic about Berube’s ability to build purposeful line combinations that had a more distinct feel than what was seen under Sheldon Keefe. Now it’s time to take a look at the 2023-24 St. Louis Blues opening night defensive pairings to see if there is anything that can be taken away from what Berube did there and if it could potentially apply to the Maple Leafs.
For one, having Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, and Nick Leddy as similar defencemen could have imposed limits on what Craig Berube and Mike Van Ryn wanted to do. Even Colton Parayko is somewhat similar but being big and having reach certainly puts him in his own class. The opening night group also included Marco Scandella and Tyler Tucker (who I had to look up to confirm he is real). The Blues would eventually get some optimism in form of Matthew Kessel, but there is a lot to dislike about the 2023-24 Blues defence and that might make them a better case study than trying to appreciate what Berube and Van Ryn could do with Alex Pietrangelo and prime Colton Parayko in the lineup. Berube and Van Ryn were a duo for all, but the last season Berube was in St. Louis, so while Berube’s approach might have slightly differed last year, he was working with the same defencemen he had during the time Van Ryn was with the Blues, so usage holds up.
Before even looking at the pairings used it is worth noting the time on ice from the Blues top four defencemen. The lowest average icetime of that group was 21:58 (shared by the second pairing of Krug and Faulk). The top four are going to play a ton and have always played a ton compared to the bottom pairing and that means a ton of work for Rielly, Tanev, McCabe, and whichever of Ekman-Larsson, Liljegren, or Hakanpaa find their way into that 4th spot.
The Leafs already shifted towards higher utilization of the top four last season compared to a more balanced approach the previous season and Rielly’s icetime averaged above 23 minutes last season. His 23:44 average would make him the only player who played St. Louis Blues top four minutes and in 2022-23 the Leafs didn’t have a single defenceman averaging the time on ice as the Blues used their top four at. This will be an important change to watch for and maybe raises the question of if the Leafs could still use another defenceman.
During Craig Berube’s final 28 games in St. Louis:
First and foremost, the Blues took an absolute beating to start the season and as illustrated by the PDO column things were going aggressively against them. Colton Parayko had a rough start to the year and as the defenceman leaned on the most the team especially hurt. And credit where credit is due, Jordan Binnington put in work for Berube to make this less awful than it already looks.
The Leafs shouldn’t be looking to emulate any kind of defensive success in St. Louis and if there is a lesson to be learned from the Blues it is “pay Alex Pietrangelo whatever he wants.” Still, there is some value is seeing how Craig Berube tried to make lemonade out of the lemons he had to work with and consider what a minute heavy top four for the Maple Leafs might look like.
Pairing One: Nick Leddy-Colton Parayko
This definitely has the best of the best together approach as you’d expect with the Blues top heavy approach to defensive pairings. While both Leddy and Parayko are more offensive defencemen than defensively minded, they are the more well rounded options than Krug or Faulk who we will see in the next pairing. It definitely speaks to the high likelihood that the Chris Tanev will be joining Morgan Rielly on the top pairing next season, if there was ever any doubt.
It also seems like the Leafs would be looking at better situation than the Blues had on their top unit even if there are plenty of Leafs fans who think that adding Colton Parayko would have been a great move.
Neither of the Blues top pairing are heavy hitters, but Parayko especially is an avid shot blocker and Tanev will be an easy fit for replacing him. Rielly might more closely mirror Krug or Faulk than Leddy, but the reality is Rielly is clear upgrade on any of them and while it may not mean much, this looks like it will be Craig Berube’s best top pairing since Alex Pietrangelo played for him.
Pairing Two: Torey Krug-Justin Faulk
I’m not really sure the Leafs have the potential to mirror this and I think that is a good thing. The Blues second pairing is two offensively driven players together that seem to rely on Craig Berube’s greater emphasis on team defence to keep them afloat. Early last season they did not float and that’s what started the process which led to Berube coaching the Leafs. As you can see from the list of names above there weren’t any real alternatives for replacement and this was the coach getting by with some expensive contract misfires that have no trade clauses attached.
The closest thing the Leafs could do to this type of pairing would be Oliver Ekman-Larsson with Timothy Liljegren and there might be some merit to using a puck controlling duo together and it might be a style choice near and dear to the heart of Mike Van Ryn. The snag is that Jake McCabe is the Leafs third best defenceman and makes sense on the second pairing. He has a more versatile skill set and offensive plays won’t die with him being on the ice, it’s just a matter of who his partner should be. If it is important to have a right shot partner, Timothy Liljegren looks like a candidate for that role. If moving McCabe to right side makes more sense, it would probably be Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
It seems like more questions still have to be answered for the Leafs, including “what’s the deal with Jani Hakanpaa?” before the Leafs know their full story defensively.
Pairing Three: Marco Scandella-Tyler Tucker
That’s a pairing that you’d expect to see on a team that fires their coach before Christmas. Even if Scott Perunovich is considered instead of Tyler Tucker, this feels is like if the Leafs used Max Lajoie and William Lagesson a regular bottom pairing throughout last year.
With Simon Benoit and one of Liljegren or Ekman-Larsson spilling over onto the bottom pairing, the Leafs will be in a better spot, even if Hakanpaa isn’t in the picture.
General takeaways from the defensive pairings
Maybe it’s just nice to see teams out there that are worse than the Leafs defensively and perhaps this should be a situation where the Leafs are encouraging Van Ryn and Berube to try something new and get back to something that more closely mirrored their cup winning pairings:
Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester – Parayko
Edmundson – Dunn
You can see that Berube/Van Ryn started from a place of balance in their pairings and it was special teams utilization that made up the ice time differences with Pietrangelo, Parayko, Bouwmeester, and Edmundson playing more as a result.
It’s also interesting that while Berube and Van Ryn have worked together a lot, Van Ryn was hired to Mike Yeo’s coaching staff and was terminated while Craig Berube was still head coach. They’ve had plenty of time working together but this isn’t necessarily a coach and his right-hand man, although they would clearly share some philosophies and likely have a mutual admiration to have co-existed as long as they did in St. Louis.
Since 2018-19, the Blues have allowed fewer 5v5 goals than the Leafs in 4 out of the 6 seasons. One of those seasons the Leafs were better was the North Division COVID season and the other Jordan Binnington had a career low .894 save percentage while still playing in 61 games. The Blues defence/goaltending seems to be getting things done better than the Leafs and what needs to be considered are:
- The merits of Mike Van Ryn’s player-to-player coverage system versus zone coverage. Last season it didn’t work out ideally but that one of those flaws can be traced to the second point.
- The need for team defence. The Blues forwards are more actively involved in the defensive zone to make up for the lack of Alex Pietrangelo. This is a huge part of getting the tighter coverage approach to work and the Leafs didn’t have the personnel or seemingly the direction to execute that properly.
- A lot of what makes the Blues look better defensively is having a goaltender to bail them out. The Blues had almost 300 more shots taken against them than the Leafs did last season 5v5. The goal against totals being similar might be influenced by shot quality but much more likely is goaltending made a huge impact. Was a true #1 goaltender the better fit for Berube? Possibly, but Stolarz looks like the best gamble in lieu of that.
Copying Berube’s template for the Maple Leafs
There seem to be a lot more variables after the top pairing that make it hard to pin down what the Leafs will do on their blueline, but it seems like a safe bet that the starting place is going to be having Rielly-Tanev as a top pairing. Tanev’s interviews certainly point to this being part of what was discussed with him in the courting process and as Tanev has noted previously, he played with Rielly at the World Hockey Championships previously. I don’t think that one needs to be overthought.
Everything that comes next is a bit crazier. What’s the deal with Hakanpaa? Was Liljegren signed only to be traded? And was the Blues second pairing based more on having the next best defencemen together or did Craig Berube specifically want an offensive driven pairing that would move the puck up the ice? Also, how many right shots are there in the top six?
You could make a case for any combination of Ekman-Larsson/McCabe, McCabe/Liljegren, or Ekman-Larsson/Liljegren, depending on the prevailing philosophy regarding the blueline that we aren’t privy to.
If Hakanpaa isn’t in the picture, having the Swedes together seems more likely and McCabe will continue to play with Simon Benoit. If Hakanpaa is a Leaf, putting him with Ekman-Larsson has a greater likelihood.
And thankfully none of these options seem to mirror a Scandella/Tucker pairing.
Data from Natural Stat Trick
