In an earlier article, I shared my list of players who I felt were in danger of underachieving relative to their average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues, but for each player on that list, I was only arguing that their ADP was too high.
Today, we’re going to turn our attention toward players who you should avoid drafting in a standard 12-team league. Of course, there are tons of players who you wouldn’t consider drafting anyway who could theoretically be included on this list, so to keep things relevant, this article will only address players who have been drafted in at least 75% of Yahoo leagues as of the time of writing.
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Alexandar Georgiev, G, Colorado Avalanche
51.7 ADP, drafted in 100% of leagues
Why fade a goalie who has recorded 78 wins over his past two seasons? Outside of his win total, Georgiev was a frustrating netminder in 20223-24, posting a 3.02 GAA and an .897 save percentage across 63 regular-season contests. Could he rebound? Perhaps, but it will be difficult because Colorado’s offense-first game last year was a meaningful part of the problem for Georgiev, and that’s likely to be true again this season. But he’ll still get plenty of wins, right? Maybe, but there’s already talk of 24-year-old Justus Annunen playing a bigger role this season, which seems justified after the younger netminder outplayed his veteran counterpart in 2023-24.
Georgiev is also entering the final season of his contract and will likely seek a raise that the Avalanche might not be inclined to give him, so Colorado has some invested interest in setting up the younger and cheaper Annunen as the successor. That all adds up to make Georgiev too high-risk in my mind, especially given his ADP.
Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes
84.1 ADP, drafted in 100% of leagues
Similarly to Georgiev, I don’t think Andersen is worth the risk in part due to his ADP. He’s fantastic when healthy, but Andersen has dealt with major injury issues over the past four years, and he’s heading into his age-35 season, so there’s unfortunately little reason for optimism here.
The 25-year-old Pyotr Kochetkov is also coming into his own and should fiercely challenge Andersen for starts even when the veteran netminder is healthy. Goaltending is such a vital position, and you want to take a netminder that you, at the very least, have confidence will play on a decently regular basis.
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes
114.4 ADP, drafted in 100% of leagues
Burns has surpassed the 40-point mark in 10 of the past 11 seasons with the lone exception being the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 campaign. However, he’ll be 39 going into the season and will turn 40 before its conclusion (March 9). The Hurricanes plan to have him start 2024-25 on the top pairing, but can he really still produce at a high level, or will he take a step back like he did last season?
There’s a very strong chance that he’ll dip below the 40-point mark this year. It also wouldn’t shock me if Shayne Gostisbehere takes over on the top power-play unit at some point during the campaign, which would be a major blow to Burns’ fantasy value. I’d like to be wrong here, but I recommend steering clear of Burns at this stage of his career.
Blake Coleman, C/RW, Calgary Flames
139.9 ADP, drafted in 88% of leagues
Coleman reached the 30-goal milestone for the first time in 2023-24, but it’s hard to envision him doing that again. He relied on a 15.7 shooting percentage, which was a major jump from his career average of 9.5 going into that campaign. He’s also not projected to serve in the top six or on the power play, especially after the Flames signed Anthony Mantha over the summer.
Coleman does play with a physical edge, but he’s far more noteworthy in terms of PIM (76 in 2023-24) than hits (127), so unless you’re in a league that values PIM specifically, the 32-year-old isn’t a great option to have on your radar.
Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders
150.7 ADP, drafted in 90% of leagues
Horvat is a great forward who should do fine for the Islanders this year, but there are a lot of fantastic centers and not enough space for all of them to be chosen. Horvat’s lack of eligibility on either wing hurts him. That late into the draft, you want to be filling up your team with players who offer versatility or plug holes — and center really shouldn’t be a hole that needs plugging in most scenarios.
It also doesn’t help that he traditionally puts forth a somewhat mild performance with the man advantage for a forward who regularly plays on the top unit, which undermines his otherwise strong offensive numbers. If you are in a league that values faceoffs, though, you might want to rethink passing on him because Horvat can be quite the asset in that category.
Cam Talbot, G, Detroit Red Wings
158.7 ADP, drafted in 82% of leagues
Talbot struggled with the Senators in 2022-23, but he rebounded in LA, posting a 27-20-6 record, 2.50 GAA and .913 save percentage across 54 regular-season appearances last year. However, while Talbot undoubtedly did well, he’s now going from the team that finished sixth in xGA/60 (2.82) last season to the squad that ranked 25th (3.28) in Detroit. That anticipated downgrade of the defense in front of Talbot coupled with him getting up there in age at 37 could make this a very difficult year for him.
Detroit also has Alex Lyon, Ville Husso and Jack Campbell signed to one-way deals. Even if we assume that at least one of those three will be sent to the minors, the Red Wings’ goaltending situation is messy and best to avoid for now.
Evander Kane, LW, Edmonton Oilers
163.9 ADP, drafted in 55% of leagues
Kane is dealing with a hip injury and will undergo surgery as a result. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out for, but he probably will miss at least a decent chunk of time. If Kane was a more offensively productive forward, I might say that it’s worth taking him anyway, but he had 24 goals and 44 points in 77 regular-season contests last year.
With the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, Kane is also unlikely to serve in the top six when healthy and might not get much power-play time either. Yes, he does still have the advantage of playing a gritty game that will help him in leagues with PIM and/or hits as a category, but with such an unclear timetable, and the likelihood of a limited role once he is healthy, there’s just not enough upside here.
Bowen Byram, D, Buffalo Sabres
164.9 ADP, drafted in 75% of leagues
Byram has offensive promise, but in the early stages of his career, he’s been in the shadow of superstar defensemen. First, it was Cale Makar in Colorado; now, it’s Rasmus Dahlin in Buffalo. Dahlin’s presence will keep Byram off the top power-play unit.
The 23-year-old Byram should still do alright, but with a limited role with the man advantage, he’ll have a tough time meaningfully increasing his production from his 29-point showing last year.
