The start of the season hasn’t been kind to Pontus Holmberg, especially after last season it appeared that he was a viable option for a bottom six centre role for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and receiving praise from the Leafs’ core about his offensive creativity that made him capable of being a top six spot duty player. On an $800k AAV, Holmberg was the best kind of utility player and one that could have opened up a number of lineup card possibilities or at the very least stabilized Toronto’s centre depth.
With 15 games into the season (prior to Wednesday’s game against Washington) the season hasn’t gone as planned for the Leafs and Holmberg. Pontus is sitting on one assist through 15 games and been held goalless. That might be fine for some as he’s a bottom six player, but the defensive play hasn’t materialized either and things like penalty killing have been a bust. With just ten blocked shots, three of which have come on the penalty kill, there are signs that Holmberg isn’t living up to his 2023-24 play. And while Holmberg has shown a willing to take a hit to make a play or even drop the gloves, if necessary, the physical aspect of his game isn’t as effective as it was late last season and the penalties, he has taken have often occurred because of Pontus being caught out of position or lacking the speed to make the legal play.
The stats on the season so far show Holmberg being useful as a suppressor. His on-ice GA/60 is 1.57 which is outstanding. His xGA/60 is 2.28 and his CA/60 is 57.62, and these too are some of the best numbers on the Leafs. The issue is that the puck is still not going the other way, and when you factor in Holmberg’s on-ice offensive numbers, the differentials are underwhelming:
CF%: 47.31%
GF%: 20.00%
xG%: 40.46%
The argument can be made that Holmberg has been unlucky as his PDO is at 95.6%, but while that is unsustainably bad, it does also factor in an unsustainably good on-ice save percentage of 93.65% that means things are just as likely to get worse before they get better.
As a utility player, consistent linemates is part of the struggle for Pontus Holmberg. He’s played most frequently with Nick Robertson 64 minutes out of Holmberg’s total 153 minutes of 5v5 ice time, and Bobby McMann also clocks in at 55 minutes, but David Kampf, Steven Lorentz, Max Pacioretty, Max Domi, and Ryan Reaves have also been on the ice with Holmberg for more than 20 minutes of 5v5 so far this season, the best results coming with Max Pacioretty (which certainly doesn’t help right now), and Max Domi, showing that Holmberg might be best as defensively responsible support to offensive players and still needs more talented players to elevate him instead of comfortably fitting into a third line role. For what it’s worth, Domi’s on-ice expected goals are also better when playing with Holmberg than away from him in that small sample.
Other than seeing if Domi and Holmberg can fix each other, the Leafs need to look at some more strong options when it comes to Holmberg. The Leafs have brought Connor Dewar back into the fold. Alex Steeves has shown a lot of promise on the Marlies and has earned a look in the NHL. And while you can point to other underperforming Leafs like Max Domi, Nick Robertson, and Ryan Reaves, Pontus Holmberg might be the best candidate for a reboot with the Marlies.
Other than the deficit of centres, particularly noticed during Auston Matthews’ absence, there isn’t much of a case for why Holmberg should be in the NHL. When Matthews returns and with the potential for either Dewar or Lorentz to take some games at centre on the fourth line, sending Holmberg down to get him back to where the Leafs need him to be down the stretch seems like a worthwhile investment in the player.
The catch to giving Holmberg time on the Marlies is waivers but taking a risk on a forward with one point in 15 games seems like a healthy one and keeping Holmberg around to underperform simply because of the risk associated with waivers doesn’t make much sense either.
Holmberg has shown that he is better than the first 15 games, his first two seasons show he has the potential to put up a double-digit goal total and at least provide some tertiary offence from the bottom six forward group. Both of those seasons began with Pontus Holmberg figuring himself out in the AHL first and maybe he still needs that.
And for the Leafs, a team that definitely needs more offence, it’s hard to look at Holmberg’s numbers and say that he should remain in the lineup.
Data from Natural Stat Trick
