The first Battle of Ontario of the season will take place Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena, as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators. Unfortunately, Leafs captain Auston Matthews will miss a fourth consecutive game in this matchup, which is part of the reason the betting prices on this game are closer than they were in last season’s matchups.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Senators vs. Leafs Odds
- Senators Moneyline Odds: +105
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -125
- Puck Line Odds: Senators +1.5 (-230), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Ottawa Senators:
For years, Senators pundits have pushed offseason narratives that the upcoming year would see Ottawa finally provide a real threat to the Leafs in the Atlantic Division. More than ever that was the case this summer, as the addition of Linus Ullmark had the potential to clear up the Sens’ greatest flaw.
Through 14 games, it’s been an up-and-down start to coach Travis Green’s tenure as bench boss. At their best, the Sens have looked like a clear playoff team, but are still struggling to find consistency.
A surprising part of the Sens’ middling 7-7-0 record has been the play of Ullmark, who has been confirmed as Tuesday’s starter. He enters this matchup with an .890 save percentage, and 2.87 GAA. He holds a -3.8 GSAx, compared to a +14.8 GSAx last year with Boston.
Ullmark may be finding that life isn’t as easy playing behind the Sens as it was the last several seasons in Boston. They did a tremendous job of insulating him Saturday in Boston against his former side though, and he was able to record a critical win with 14 saves on just 16 shots.
The Senators rank ninth in expected goal percentage this season, and hold a +4 goal differential. Analytically speaking they look to be a playoff side, but that has been the case in each of the two seasons previous.
Ottawa will get a significant boost as Shane Pinto is set to return from an eight-game absence in this matchup. Pinto has recorded three points in six games this season, but was doing a great job controlling play at even strength prior to his injury.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
The Leafs will look to move to 4-0 without Matthews this season in this matchup, and are 38-19-2 without him since he entered the league. From a betting perspective, this is the toughest test they have had without Matthews though, as they were significantly larger favorites in the last three matchups.
Max Pacioretty’s injury also leaves a notable hole on the second line, as Pacioretty, John Tavares and William Nylander were providing excellent results. In 68.1 minutes together, the trio held a 66.2 percent expected goal share, which lead the team among units to play to spend over 20 minutes together at even strength.
Without Matthews, the Leafs have scored just one goal in five-on-five play through three games, versus a trio of teams which are allowing a ton of chances against. The power play has been on fire, but eventually the team will likely need to pick up its even strength scoring to continue finding success.
Anthony Stolarz has followed up his brilliant 2023-24 season in Florida with an excellent start to his Leafs career, as he has posted a .930 save percentage and 2.00 GAA. He has been confirmed as Tuesday’s starter, which means Joseph Woll should get the start tomorrow in Washington.
Best Bets for Senators vs Leafs:
With opening prices in the +125 range, the Senators looked to be holding value. As they are now priced at just +105, I believe this game is priced correctly and don’t see any value backing Ottawa anymore.
The Senators have once again offered fairly hit-or-miss play this season, but at their best still look like a playoff team. With Pinto back in the mix they feature a deep offensive core, and should start to find better results if Ullmark can stabilize moving forward as most would expect.
The Leafs have played well of late, but it has been against a number of fairly soft opponents. Aside from their matchup against the Canadiens on Saturday, their offensive play at even strength has not been that dominant with Matthews out of the lineup. Pacioretty had been effective on the second line as well, and his absence certainly doesn’t help the Leafs offensive upside.
Tkachuk has scored eight goals in 14 games, and enters this matchup off of a statement performance in Boston. The underlying numbers suggest he will continue scoring at this rate moving forward, and if that is the case there will be lots of value backing him to score at prices in the +185 range (35.1% implied probability, Tkachuk has at least a single goal in 50% of games this season).
At +180 or better I see value backing the Sens’ captain to find the net in this matchup.
Best Bet: Brady Tkachuk Anytime Goalscorer +185 (Sports Interaction)
