The Toronto Maple Leafs get an intriguing matchup to make a statement Tuesday as they host their rival Boston Bruins. Boston bested Toronto in overtime in this season’s first matchup, and were clearly the better team in that game. Through 13 games respectively, the Leafs enter this matchup holding a one point lead over the Bruins in the division.
Toronto will be without top forward Auston Matthews, who is day-to-day with an upper body injury.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.
Bruins vs. Leafs Odds
- Bruins Moneyline Odds: +130
- Leafs Moneyline Odds: -155
- Puck Line Odds: Bruins +1.5 (-200), Maple Leafs -1.5 (+165)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Boston Bruins:
Generating offence has proven quite difficult for coach Jim Montgomery’s Bruins side this season, as they rank 26th in the NHL with a 2.62 goals per game average. The last time they scored four goals came versus Toronto, and have scored three or less in seven of the last eight matchups.
Beyond David Pastrnak, not many Bruins forwards have looked overly threatening this season. Even Pastrnak has struggled at times, and was benched in the third period versus Seattle. While Pastrnak hasn’t been at his best of late, a big part of the problem looks to be the fact that Elias Lindholm is not carrying his weight as the team’s top center.
The Bruins enter off back-to-back shutout victories over the Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken, and still feature one of the league’s better defence cores. Goaltending and defensive play figured to be the Bruins greatest strengths entering this season, and all indications are that will be the case moving forward.
Jeremy Swayman hasn’t been at his best in playing to a +0.1 GSAx and .895 save % in nine appearances. He played well versus the Kraken on Sunday, and it seems foolish to think that he won’t still be one of the leagues better starters this season. He is expected to get the start tonight.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
There is a case to be made that the Leafs are looking like a different side under Craig Berube, and it was always a possibility they would take time to adapt early on this season after Sheldon Keefe’s lengthy tenure came to an end. They hold a 52.31% expected goal share, and have limited the opposition to three goals against per game.
Whether or not they can generate offence versus elite defensive teams like Boston could be the greatest indicator whether this team is really different or not. While the narrative often tends to be the Leafs soft defensive play is the reason they head home early every spring, a look at the score-lines would suggest the exact opposite.
The Leafs struggling powerplay has been a key storyline all season long, and it’s a particularly interesting one entering a matchup versus the Bruins. Scoring just one powerplay goal versus the Bruins last postseason was arguably the greatest reason the Leafs lost that series.
With Matthews sidelined, we will have to wait a little longer to get another look at the Leafs new five forward powerplay unit. They will likely opt to go with the other four forwards that skated on the top unit Sunday, and throw Morgan Rielly back into the role of quarterback.
Anthony Stolarz is the confirmed starter for this matchup. He has followed up his brilliant 2023-24 campaign with a .919 save % and 2.38 GAA in eight appearances this season.
Best Bets for Bruins vs Leafs:
This sets up as a favorable spot to target a game script similar to what we saw in the majority of matchups between these rivals last Postseason. In all three of the Leafs wins in that series they held the Bruins to two goals or less, and allowed an average of just 2.57 goals against across all seven games.
The Bruins offensive floor looks pretty low right now, and they figure to be a side which will be reliant on winning low event matchups this season. The Leafs are trending in the right direction defensively as we get deeper into Berube’s tenure, and Stolarz continues to play at an elite level.
At -140 Toronto would be my first choice in terms of a side, as I believe they can keep the Bruins in check offensively in this spot even without Matthews. Given the +190 price tag, I see most value backing the Leafs to win a game that stays under 6.5.
I’m also seeing value backing Nylander to record over 3.5 shots on goal at +100. He’s played well since the whole ice-time debacle, and this now presents as a spot for him to get additional minutes and prove his worth. The Bruins have allowed a league average amount of shots against this season, and rank 20th in overall shot share.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs to Win + Under 6.5 Total Goals Parlay (+190 Sports Interaction), Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +100 (Play to -110)
