As we continue to count down through the Maple Leafs prospects in August it seems worthwhile to pause and ask a simple question? Will the lack of draft picks soon become the Leafs undoing? It’s not a fun question and one that certainly goes against the spirit of feeling good about who is in the Leafs system, but the reality is players bringing value beyond their contract is a critical part of building a successful contender and the easiest way to get players who will exceed their contract value is by drafting them.
In some ways this discussion is a little premature but is largely driven by the fact that the Maple Leafs presently own just one draft pick in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft. Given that there is still a trade deadline that Toronto needs to make their way through this season, it’s entirely possible they won’t pick in the draft at all. The 2026 draft, while having a first, doesn’t have much else for the Leafs as they will pick just three times in 2026 unless things change. Again, the trade deadline offers the possibility that number could further be reduced.
In some ways things are already too late in the sense that the Leafs have already been depleting their draft picks for several years with a “draft schmaft” philosophy, with only three first round selections being made in the past six years, and four second round selections being made over that same amount of time. In many ways, the Leafs are fortunate they have who they do in their system but after the trio of Nylander, Marner, and Matthews, the Leafs went scorched earth on their draft plans.
Going scorched earth on late first round picks isn’t as bad as trading unprotected firsts for Phil Kessel, but it is partially because of the Leafs becoming a better drafting team under Kyle Dubas/Wes Clark’s watch that picks could have had some additional merit. And often the decision to move the high picks was for a shortsighted return.
The Leafs trading their 2019 1st for Jake Muzzin holds up. No notes. The 2020 1st being dealt to the Hurricanes so they could buy out Patrick Marleau for the Leafs absolutely stings and feels unnecessary when a good chunk of that cap savings was spent on Petr Mrazek. We can play the hindsight game but the reality is the Leafs held a pick that landed the Canes Seth Jarvis and Toronto turned that cap savings into another player they needed to pay to have taken off their roster.
Kyle Dubas did hustle to recoup a first though, and landing a first at the expense of Kasperi Kapanen was a solid move. The tragic passing of Rodion Amirov is just that a tragedy. The Leafs did draft a promising star player who seemed destined for great things and his passing is far more significant than the depth of the Leafs prospect pool.
2021 saw the Nick Foligno trade, which it seems even Nick Foligno and Kyle Dubas have acknowledged as a disaster. Toronto’s attempt to go all-in on their North Division success was the first time the Leafs dropped down to just three selections in the draft and thankfully the addition of Matthew Knies to the organization softened some of that blow.
The 2022 1st was shuffled away to the Blackhawks for a 2nd so they would take Petr Mrazek. The Leafs initial second round pick was dealt for Mark Giordano, again, a more seemingly defensible move but one that further thinned their draft resources.
The 2023 1st would go for Ryan O’Reilly, but the Leafs would recover a 1st by dealing their 2018 1st round pick, Rasmus Sandin. And the Leafs still have their 2025 1st that will go to Chicago as part of the Jake McCabe deal, which again, feels somewhat defensible.
Still, the Leafs went without 1sts for futile playoff push attempts with Nick Foligno and Ryan O’Reilly. They firsts to have the bad contracts of Petr Mrazek and Patrick Marleau taken away only to replace them with other bad contracts, and their best outcomes have been via acquiring defencemen with term (Muzzin and McCabe) or willing to re-sign at a discount (Giordano.)
All the while, the Leafs with a top tier scouting and player development system have been given little opportunity to build a true advantage for the Leafs.
Perhaps it’s a harsh truth that Brad Treliving is right about not building teams in season as Toronto has proven the price is too high and the gamble does little if nothing to ensure that a team can be pushed over the top at the trade deadline.
Of course, that’s just from looking at the Maple Leafs in isolation and when you look at teams like the Panthers, Golden Knights, Avalanche, and Lightning none of them have concerned themselves with holding onto their high draft picks either. The difference is they achieved the result you aspire to, the Leafs have not, and you’d be hard pressed to find another team that has spent futures the way the Leafs have without achieving at least a conference final berth.
It’s tough to say what the best solution is for the Leafs other than say that some level of balance/risk mitigation needs to still be in place. Some of the biggest issues with how the Leafs have operated in regard to futures has been the failure to recognize when more could have been acquired. The departure of players in free agency without return has handcuffed the Leafs, and with Marner, Tavares, and McCabe all presently being without contracts for 2025-26, there is the possibility of another gamble not panning out for the Leafs. A brutally honest look at the Leafs chances at the deadline should inform whether this is a team that believes in what it has or needs to cash out, briefly take a step back, and regroup in the offseason.
Concerning oneself with future draft and trade deadline contingencies in August is probably a sign that I need to get outside and do something else more than it is a true issue for the Leafs before the puck has dropped on the season, but the reality is that for the most part the Auston Matthews era in Toronto has consisted of the Leafs betting on themselves and coming up short. For the benefit of establishing a robust supply of talent through draft picks, it might not be the worst thing to take a step back and regroup.
Unfortunately, the time for taking that step back has likely already passed. The time to do it was probably the season when the Leafs waived their starting goaltender, couldn’t find a top four defenceman in the trade market to save their lives, and ultimately ended in the firing of the coach that many believed should have been fired when the GM was.
With Brendan Shanahan still very much on the hot seat and the Maple Leafs in a four year window on Auston Matthews, the reality is “draft schmaft” will prevail. The good news is that there is still Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten who look like good options to help as affordable NHLers in the short term, they just probably need to start getting their reps at the beginning of this season. There needs to be a clear path to the NHL for players like Niemela to get playing time and recognize that some kids making rookie mistakes won’t be the undoing of a team that quite comfortably looks like they’ll be second or third in the East again.
Depth options have proven to bring value as well. Holmberg and McMann will not be star players in the NHL but they’ve found their roles and the Leafs organization is in good supply of role players. Finding opportunities to move on from expensive role players like Jarnkrok, Kampf, and Reaves in favour of more affordable options has to be part of the path to a roster that can outperform its cost.
As the salary cap goes up, it is also going to become increasingly easier for teams to be able to afford to keep their star players. This is going to cut into the ability to improve rosters through free agency and even trades. Draft picks will help with that, even if they are blue chip picks from the draft lottery, the need to volume shoot with informed scouting and a better than average player development department will be needed to keep the Maple Leafs competitive.
